Alhambram's play is pretty much what I'd expect based on his last game. Straightforward and sometimes simplistics reasons for putting down votes. At elast I feel like he has tried to contribute today, which is a minor plus for me.
Yes, it's pretty clear where my vote ends up today Lewwyn. But I haven't stopped looking, and I will review once we have more info. I don't have nothing on Commodore's play that would lean away from voting him, as our reads on players are so opposite, and at this point I just have to trust my own reads more than his.
Omar feel like not much happened so far D2. General feeling the village just waiting to pick sides in a Bee-Boy/Flip mob. Omar not opposed to that per se. Still a testable hypothesis, with possible implications on Weeb Fox too.
But Omar learned about them odds watching back alley craps games, and Omar believe in digits. Still seems too coincidental that we get half or more of the villains in the podium places day one. Odds would be far more likely we got none up there than three.
If sunrise tomorrow Omar find a Bee-Boy v. Flip face off, I'll re-read my notes with that showdown in my mind and join in the mob on the one that seems most villainous. But still not certain that clarifies how to proceed after.
The focus on Bee-Boy and Flip seems to be pulling away from looking at other possible villains. Even if Bee-Boy and Flip turn out villains, unless we still river the backdoor flush draw by flipping a villainous Weeb Fox next, there would be two more Barksdales that gotta get got. We could just as easily be looking for those now.
Of the people Omar drop knowledge about before, here some updated thoughts:
Cyneheard’s clear preferences and logical thinking at the end of #727 continues to make Omar vibe village.
Still feel most comfortable placing CIA as village. Not always a good logic flow, but this makes Omar look at Jerry! more side-eyed lately.
Old Tea Man’s very clear stated preferences make Omar feel better about him as well. He could be a villain trying to waste village time, but Omar less suspicious than before.
As for Robot, Omar not seen anything to make him less suspicious. Old Tea Man points out Robot makes an odd vote for him due to “Queen’s research,” even though Queen was solidly pointing at Omar. That said, Omar think this was more of a language-barrier than anything real. Omar's biggest issue with Robot is his post 537 where he states he is positive Weeb Fox started the Q train, but not sure where exactly it occurred. As Omar pointed out earlier, Old Tea Man made the first non-joke vote on Q post 94, and then Robot seconds the Q shade in post 95. Weeb Fox first votes Q in 174.
Still, not enough to make Omar real confident there.
Omar would prefer one of these options come tomorrow morning:
Omar sees a grand total of zero useful posts from Swanson still. Additionally, his post about Queen literally on the nightkill deadline was odd, saying he would like to see more from Queen today after Weeb Fox stated his clear concerns over Queen being a villain. But his only other mention of Queen Omar recall was in #293 when he approved of her prior post, one of his few clearly stated preferences to that point, and would have been perfectly happy to bandwagon with Queen on Omar.
Jabbz has been churning out sporadic, lengthy posts about metagame concerns and how difficult his reads have been all game to keep the appearance of a word count, but with little to no useful villain-hunting thoughts. Skelly points out his questionable attempts at following the thread in post 500. This lack of effort again becomes clear in his later exchange with Old Tea Man. Then he pops in at 698 to say he is all caught up, but has no village or villain reads. Omar seen a junkie snort talcum powder and get more use than a Jabbz post.
Omar questions Simpson for the same reasons. Votes no lynch day one. Very low content posts. Weeb Fox points out in #587 that Simp says Bee-Boy and Flip seem less shady now, then turns around and votes for Flip anyway, and reads way too much into the Flip fiver with Bee-Boy, which actually did make Omar chuckle. Simp pulls the "I have no reads" card at #713 and reiterates it at #724. At least 724 has some reads. Could be some language-barrier here too.
Omar notice these three, Jabbz, Swanson and Simp actually pull the no reads trifecta at 698, 706, and 713 respectively. Omar wants a close look at any of those three.
AdrienIer over Jabbz.
Completed: SG2-Wonders or Else!; SG3-Monarch Can't Hold Me; WW3-Surviving Wolf; PBEM3-Replacement for Timmy of Khmer; PBEM11-Screwed Up Huayna Capac of Zulu; PBEM19-GES, Roland & Friends (Mansa of Egypt); SG4-Immortality Scares Me
(October 5th, 2020, 00:28)Gold Ergo Sum Wrote: The focus on Bee-Boy and Flip seems to be pulling away from looking at other possible villains. Even if Bee-Boy and Flip turn out villains, unless we still river the backdoor flush draw by flipping a villainous Weeb Fox next, there would be two more Barksdales that gotta get got. We could just as easily be looking for those now.
Are you saying there are 5 scum in total? How would you know that?
Thanks very much for your patience everyone. I have a ton to write and a ton to catch up on so I'm going to start posting but bear with me as I get up-to-date.
First, a personal update and anecdote in spoiler tags, feel free to skip as there's no WW gameplay connection.
I owned and exhibited sheep throughout my childhood. I got my first sheep when I was 8, but I got the first one which I kept and therefore which turned from a county fair project into a pet when I was 9. Her name was Sunrise and her ear-tag identification number was 0089. When I was 15 I adopted my pet's name and number (dropping a zero for brevity) into my AOL screenname and it's stayed with me for 21 years, including on this forum. Sunrise lived a full life and died of old age when I was in college, and I drove home and buried her by hand. To this day she's been my only real pet - not livestock or my wife or kids' pet, but something most meaningful to me.
Last year with a move to Florida and access to the required space my daughter decided she wanted she wanted to exhibit a sheep like I had, so I bought her a ewe lamb and we picked it up in a rental car with a big dog carrier My daughter had big 9-year-old dreams of having a magical bond with the lamb but drawing on my own experiences I tried to keep her expectations in check. Against all odds, things went fully Mary-had-a-little-lamb and the ewe, Frosty, follows my daughter around the property, serves as a footrest while the daughter lies in the hammock, and while long having outgrown the dog carrier still rides in the cargo area of my wife's Jeep as long as my daughter sits in front of her in the back seat. I have every expectation that when my daughter creates her own online identity her handle will be derived from her pet just like mine was.
We had a late night seeing extended family yesterday, and I was in a hurry to get us inside when we got home. Thankfully my daughter recognized something was amiss. It was subtle, but when Frosty greeted her her movements were stilted and her rear legs were oddly placed. I thought it might be something transitory but it seemed to be worsening so we guessed there was some sort of neurological issue afoot. Late Saturday night wasn't the easiest time for that to happen, and any place local with someone on call was unlikely to have anyone who'd treated a sheep since vet school. We decided the ewe likely wouldn't make it to Monday morning and so our best hope was the large animal teaching hospital in Gainesville. Frosty wasn't able to coordinate her feet to keep her balance on the drive up, and by the time we arrived she wasn't able to stand or even lie down without falling over and had to be wheeled in sideways on a cart. My wife had me snap a picture since we thought it pretty likely that would be the last image we had of her.
Because of COVID we weren't able to stay with Frosty after she was admitted. The treating internist suspected thiamine deficiency induced polioencephomalacia or listeriosis and told us if it was the former, which was more treatable, we should see some improvement by the afternoon. Thankfully we got the call and they said after a thiamine infusion Frosty was back on her feet, still unstable but upright and eating. If things continue to improve we can take her home tomorrow.
Anyways, it's been an emotional day, especially seeing how it impacted my daughter. I was a young adult when my sheep died after a full life, while Frosty was hanging on the precipice with no warning and in her physical prime. Of course something like this pales in comparison to health challenges faced by humans, especially at this time. But given the connection to my identity on this site and to this particular game I wanted to share a little of the experience.
Anyways, I had two lingering things to discuss in more detail from the time before all the last-minute vote stuff. At this stage I have only read through post 580 so forgive me if any of this has been hashed out, but I thought it was useful to get this out without being influenced by the subsequent conversations.
First, my goodness was Q scummy. I indicated back in 196 that his level and nature of activity were wildly different than his recent town games and he was my number 2 suspect. At that same point he was leading the vote count, though that included an early flavor vote and at least one vote to prod activity. In any case, as of 10 hours before deadline he wasn't in great shape. After that he proceeded to offer gems like
Quote:If you want to lynch me based on inactivity, fine, you've seen how that works, and I think a wolf has to be active to play with the dynamics and arrange it in a way that serves him so I don't understand why people think that you can be wolf and just sit back and wait for the game to fall in your pocket. If you really want activity please ask me a questions and I can focus on that
and
Quote:To be honest from what I see I expect the game for me to begin properly on D2 or even D3 when it's less people and some roles of the dead are known
and, ye gods,
Quote:Tell me one scummy thing that I've said or done, not what I haven't done. I'll have a look through your posts too see if you wouldn't make a good lynch yourself.
Despite that series of posts, the following reactions occur: (note these all happen BEFORE Lewwyn becomes active and drives the Thrawn train):
*Meiz moves off thrawn onto Pindicator, albeit after making a case for the latter
*Cyneheard moves to Pindicator because thrawn reminds him of the recent bob mislynch. Note the bob mislynch was due to bob stubbornly refusing the participate for conceptual reasons, whereas thrawn kept insisting he wanted to participate but needed material. I don't personally view those situations as very analogous. In fact I think pindicator was much closer to bob at end of day fwiw.
*Rowain moves to Commodore, no reason given
*Gaspar moves to Commodore "Thrawn seems earnest and feels like a mislynch given his posting today." I know Gaspar loves his feels but damn. Gaspar later adds "I get what you're saying Lew but I just think its more likely Thrawn has retreated to his shell" which is wild since I don't view "being way more active than earlier in the game" as "retreating into [a] shell..."
Of these four movers Rowain will eventually return with a meaningfully-timed vote while the other three will end up on Pindicator. Q hangs with ultimate votes from Lewwyn and Pindicator (already on him at this point), the Rowain return, Lewwyn convincing Adrien and Kaiser, Commodore switching for self-preservation, and me and Q himself voting for him right before the deadline. The Adrien and Kaiser moves are weird themselves, with Adrien saying "If it's Pindicator vs Commodore..." and then moving to Thrawn with "I realise now that the thrawn train has risen lately. Give me a minute to think" despite there being zero vote changes during the interval between those posts; while Kaiser gives two reasons why his suspicions on thrawn have been reduced and then makes his own flip-flop. I can see charitable reasons for
Adrien and Kaiser's moves (hadn't read carefully and made the best decision on the margin, respectively) but in the end the traitor hung via Lewwyn returning from the ether to hammer, three flip-flops, two self-preservation votes, a self-vote, and me That's...not the best company. I have more to say on the last-minute stuff but I'll save that for the next post. My broad point irrespective of the final 5-10 minutes is that I'm surprised Meiz, Cyneheard, Rowain, and Gaspar all moved away from Thrawn given how scummy he looked IHMO.
Question for Lewwyn - much of your push on Thrawn was great. You obviously made a case on scum and pushed and prodded people to build a coalition. And, in 319 you made the point that Thrawn /= Bob which I think was right and important to note. But why in your roundup post 304 did you not mention ANY of the moves off thrawn? You were the person lowest on Thrawn and yet people jumping off him left and right gave you town reads or weren't worth mentioning at all?!
____
The other thing I wanted to bring up is the claims Commodore and Pindicator made about having trouble parsing Gold and Commodore's postings, respectively. In short, both of those claims seem barely credible at best. Gold uses some American slang, but Commodore of all people I'd expect to make short work of that. Gold also uses some clever nicknames which apparently were confusing, like "yellow dog" and "bee-boy." There is exactly one person playing as a dog in this game, and there's another player whos a male, with wings, with a yellow and black costume. Meanwhile Pindicator has trouble with the dolphin because of the various squeaks and squeals despite them being immediately followed by plain-text translations. I don't really know what to say other than that just doesn't seem credible. Meiz said earlier than Pindicator's day one suspicion of me seemed fundamentally lazy, as if he only took the time to get a feel for my target (Gaspar) and didn't get a feel for me directly. This seems similar - like scum wanting to avoid having to read closely and so latching on to an obvious excuse...except because they were lazy they didn't bother looking to see if the language was ACTUALLY hard to parse. I can't read minds here but it's hard for me to believe that reading the dolphin is harder than some of my own bulleted lists, or big collections of block quotes, or big collections of block quotes with a broken quote tag where the quoted language and new language are intermixed. The only reason it seems like one would have a harder time with the flavor language would be if they weren't reading much of anything closely enough but didn't want to just come out and say that, and to me that suggests scum.
To-come:
*a few more things about the end of the day:
-->my remark that Lewwyn's attack on Q was the second scummiest thing I've seen and how that remark has aged with the Q flip.
-->where the vote was when my own vote came in
-->Rowain's breakdown of how Q voters look depending on scum's information re: Q
-->Would scum even try to save Q?!
*thoughts on Pindicator, Commodore, and Jabbz - I have suspicions on all three as I noted up-thread, but it seems silly to break down thoughts without including the last 150+ posts.
*anything else which has emerged over said 150+ posts
Out of those who did RP for the longest he was the one who I felt hid behind it the most. Then very few good scumhunting bits and IIRC some votes I didn't really agreed with or liked (can't dig through the thread to find the specific posts while on phone and with almost no time, I may have some time for that this afternoon but no guarantee)
(October 5th, 2020, 00:35)Meiz Wrote: Why is WK scum for you AdrienIer?
(October 5th, 2020, 00:41)AdrienIer Wrote: Out of those who did RP for the longest he was the one who I felt hid behind it the most. Then very few good scumhunting bits and IIRC some votes I didn't really agreed with or liked (can't dig through the thread to find the specific posts while on phone and with almost no time, I may have some time for that this afternoon but no guarantee)
(October 4th, 2020, 23:48)Meiz Wrote: Once again I find myself very interested to see if Commodore & Pindicator are red and Lewwyn is the third
I don’t know whether comm is scum or not. I’m reading him neutral right now. But meis you really have been stuck on him and pin basically all day. I mean if you wanted to optimize your time you should have scumhunted around all day and then came back to comm at the end. But both you and Gaspar have just sat on him basically wasting time that could have been spent pushing people and getting new reads. I find it to be pretty suspect.
I mean, this is lazy analysis. Meiz might be wrong or even might be scum but you strain your own argument when you suggest that he's tunneled on two people all day even though his vote is only one of them. And in fact, the one his vote is not on is the one who has spent his day increasingly agitated at him.
Honestly, there's a bunch of ways to play this game well. Some people always bounce, some people always lock on.
I mean I just am starting to really suspect Weeb Fox, you're a lot shadier than I give you credit for. You keep neutral on Commodore and Pindicator, even on day 1 where you seemed like you'd consider you never really let go of Thrawn. And while its good we got Thrawn, killing him certainly doesn't give any town cred in my eyes because the likelihood is that the scum didn't know who he was. Yeah you held the hammer but that's just Weeb Fox doing Weeb Fox things.
Like and you say you've been scumhunting today but mostly you're just throwing stuff out there. If you got lynched today and flipped red, I'd suspect Comm and Pind even more. If you got lynched today and flipped blue... I don't know that you've given us anything? A hotshot read on Adrien and WK? Arguing with Meiz? I just don't see a lot of opinions, I see a lot of hot shotting, which to me is day 1 stuff. We're deep enough in that you should have more.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
My daughter had big 9-year-old dreams of having a magical bond with the lamb but drawing on my own experiences I tried to keep her expectations in check. Against all odds, things went fully Mary-had-a-little-lamb and the ewe, Frosty, follows my daughter around the property, serves as a footrest while the daughter lies in the hammock, and while long having outgrown the dog carrier still rides in the cargo area of my wife's Jeep as long as my daughter sits in front of her in the back seat. I have every expectation that when my daughter creates her own online identity her handle will be derived from her pet just like mine was.
