[PB59] Lazteuq worries for the endangered lurker species

[Lazteuq]

Turn 205: Charriu moved his cavalry stack closer to me, which means he can cross the border when he plays this turn. This might be a defensive move but I really doubt it.

His 1-movers are mostly defensively promoted, and there aren't very many of them. No siege either. He's definitely going for speed. His 2-movers are the concern, I'm looking at 22 cuirs, 3 cavalry, and 8 knights. I have 19 cannons, 6 catapults, 11 muskets, and 5 knights. Clearly I don't have enough hitters to actually kill them all, so I'm hoping all that Barrage III collateral leaves them so crippled they can't do anything. He doesn't have a ton of gold in the bank, so at least he won't be able to do much upgrading. He does have a supermedic though, which means I can't afford to let his stack sit still once I've hit it.

Charriu's ships shouldn't be much of a threat either. Looks like he has two galleons trying to advance, but I'm blocking them with frigates.
There's a lot of unprotected coastline by GKC-land though, so he might manage to pull off a galleon sneak attack against me there. That would be just a little ironic.

I considered declaring war or closing borders with Charriu, but I didn't do it. That's because I still want to give peace a chance, so I actually want him to see my units. Maybe he is just moving defensively after all. More likely, I want him to see all those cannons and give up. If I block his vision, he might not see what he's up against and attack anyway. Normally I'd be happy to bait someone into a trap like that, but not here. Why not? Because Miguelito is always watching.
So, what happens if Charriu invades and then I cripple his stack with Cannons and kill at least half of it? Does that actually help me? Not really, because I can't capitalize on a victory. I don't have enough quantity or quality of units to go on the offensive against drafted rifles and cavalry. It's Miguelito's Infantry who would really benefit from us fighting, because then both of us would be easier targets. So I don't even want to kill Charriu's stack. At least not yet. 
I sent Charriu a fish4fish to try to communicate that I'm being defensive. Unfortunately it's impossible for me to put units in a purely defensive position. Any tile that lets them cover my own cities threatens his too.

Miguelito didn't re-offer a peace treaty, but he also doesn't seem to be advancing. I guess he's waiting for more infantry to group up and assemble an unstoppable force. I offered peace again but I doubt he'll take it. He surely knows from his own scouting units in Charriu's territory that Charriu is approaching me, so he wants to keep the pressure up. I considered offering a few hundred gold to sweeten the peace deal, but I'll wait on that idea.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 207: Looks like giving peace a chance worked out pretty well! Charriu has withdrawn from the border and I've seen no other aggressive moves.
Miguelito sent some diplo which I really don't understand: He offered 9gpt for Iron, Copper, and Gold.
I'm guessing 9gpt represents 9 turns until our peace treaty ends. But then what do the metals mean?
If those metals are supposed to be actual resource locations on the map, I'm confused. The only place where I see those three resources together is the city of Cousin Jack, which is on the border of Miguelito and Charriu:

What might he mean by that?

Here's my defensive plan, I'm really proud of it.

When I put galleons on the tile marked with a red square, they can reinforce either border in a single turn. The arrows show how they can unload in cities and get close to the front. The fort next to Hectors is critical for making this work. Having at least 10 galleons in the inner sea means I can basically teleport 30+ units. That inner sea is such a blessing. Praise Lewwyn!

I think Charriu is worried about me landing on his northern coast, so he's been keeping that big cavalry stack always within 6 tiles of Snowdin Town to counter that. Actually I hadn't even considered attacking there until just now. Naval dominance gives me such great freedom and puts such a burden on Charriu. The only thing to worry about is ifwhen Miguelito gets Destroyers on the inner sea. Even just one would really mess me up.

I offered Donovan OB and a map trade. I see no reason to be confrontational with him anymore. Both of us should really want peace. We have other borders to worry about. Commodore is dead, but he has Tarkeel and Superdeath to contend with. At this point, I probably want him to do well, since he's fallen far behind in research (like me!). Now that he has Paper and Gunpowder, he'll probably have Frigates soon and I won't have any naval advantage to exploit against him.

These 9 turns of guaranteed peace with Miguelito might be a good time to execute Mjmd. But I also kinda want to let him live.

Pacifism is honestly a great civic. Even if I wasn't Spiritual I might want to run it. The No Upkeep means it saves about 60 gpt including inflation in comparison to even a Low upkeep civic. That far outweighs the extra military maintenance cost. Whenever I eventually do join another pitboss, I want to play Montezuma again, these traits are just really fun.

[Lazteuq]

T211: This golden age has been very nice so far.
In 4 turns I'm getting Education, Printing Press, Replaceable Parts, and Economics, thanks to bulbing the first two.
I get another GP in 3 turns, probably a scientist. Then another 4 turns or so later, probably a engineer or merchant. So there is more bulbing potential yet. Each bulb is worth about 1 turn of 100% research for me.
Next turn I'll swap to Free Market, and then in the next anarchy after that, I'll go into Nationhood/Representation. This map has so many luxuries that Hereditary Rule isn't necessary at all, and that drafting can be basically unlimited. Of course Vassalage is better for promotions, but quantity beats quality here. 5 drafted rifles a turn is basically 550 hammers/turn. I can't argue with that.

Charriu seems content to maintain a standoff at our border. He needs to understand that I can't afford to be the one who backs down first. His 2-mover stack is threatening to fork two of my most important core cities. I am "threatening" a single border city fortress which is dominated by my own culture and is probably a liability for him honestly. So the risks aren't comparable at all. I don't think Charriu wants to de-escalate the situation. For whatever reason he's confident that Miguelito isn't a threat to him, so he's content to focus everything against me.

My entire game here has been a story of economic mismanagement, and I really have to suffer the consequences now. Charriu is finishing Assembly Line this turn, which I have to admit is earlier than I expected. I'm realizing I really can't afford to stop teching anytime soon like I thought I could, because Charriu's going to fully industrialize and probably have destroyers by the time I'm ready to attack.
I had been building a lot of ships with my cheap drydocks so that when we do eventually fight, I'll be able to completely smother his coastline. Now I'm realizing all my frigates and galleons might be offensively obsolete in less than 10 turns, so I should probably stop building them.
Maybe I should look elsewhere for targets. I could absolutely mess up DZ's economy with naval superiority, but I don't know if I'd be able to do anything on land. How much money would I actually make from blockading? I have no idea.

Now I'm thinking I need to get Assembly Line ASAP myself to have any chance of doing anything else in this game. I can certainly whip out a bunch of factories and levees just like everyone else. I should start thinking about things like Oxford and Wall Street too.

Miguelito keeps sending me diplo I don't understand, like I described earlier.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 214. The confusing diplo continues...

Now there are two of them making these 9gpt for resource offers! WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN???

Edit: I just realized what it means: Those aren't coded messages, they are actual trade offers! These guys both have Corporations. They want more resources to fuel them.

I still have 2 turns before Miguelito can declare war. It doesn't look like he will, but still I have to plot out how many units I need to leave on the Charriu front. If they actually make a coordinated attack on T216, I might have to fall back on the northern front. Fortunately, that's exactly when I'll be able to start drafting Pinch or Combat2 Rifles!
Edit2: Miguelito just logged in pretty much immediately after I logged out. So maybe I will have a problem very shortly.
I'm scared of Charriu using a Great Artist culturebomb to get a first strike in on my cannon stack. There are a couple 60/40% tiles that I think would flip. He doesn't seem to have an Artist, but he could generate and then use one in a single turn, so I would have no warning.

In other news, trade routes are insane. I'm in a Serfdom Golden Age, and I don't even have Corporation, yet trade routes are still about 42% of my total commerce. That will probably go over 50% as soon as the GA ends. I wonder if anyone has even bothered running Mercantilism in this entire game.

I got a great scientist but he's sort of useless right now. Don't have any great places to put an academy though, so I guess I'll wait. If I was running Bureaucracy I'd probably build some more universities and go for an Oxford+Academy Bureau capitol, but I think I'll be running Nationalism for the entire rest of the game instead, drafting Rifles and hopefully Infantry.
This turn I'm picking up Theology, so I can run Theocracy and get enough xp on drafted units to have one promotion. That's a big deal since I have Aggressive. It opens up the Pinch promotion most importantly.

I really underestimated how powerful Assembly Line can be. Coal Plant plus Factory is 75% more hammers, for the low price of 400 base hammers and 5 unhealth. I'll probably run 5 turns of Organized Religion+Slavery to get them ASAP once I have Assembly Line. I thought you needed Electricity to make a Coal Plant, but you don't! So that 75% hammer boost is not terribly far away, even for my backwards civilization. At that point I should be able to take on Charriu.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 216.
My Golden Age has ended and I can now draft rifles. Not sure how much I need rifles right now, but I think it's definitely worth drafting away pop that are working coast tiles. In some cities I want to conserve population for whipping factories and coal plants, so I won't draft them.

Draft rifles should give me enough security against Charriu's 2-mover stack that I can afford to use more units elsewhere. Maybe now is the best time to attack Donovan. He's fighting Tarkeel. He will be able to defend with only knights, muskets, and catapults. His cities are already heavily whipped down. He can't draft. He can't build frigates. Seems like an easy target, except for his size.
Amica launched an impressive naval attack on Superdeath, who is surely screwed. The tech disparities are absurd. Some civs can research Superconductors (Amica), while others don't know Banking (Donovan).
Tarkeel and I are at almost identical tech levels. If I can help Tarkeel fight Donovan, he may stand a chance against Amica to maintain a balance of power on that continent. Superdeath is a lost cause but maybe Tarkeel isn't.

I can assert enough naval dominance to ensure he can't threaten me much, but the question is if I can really gain much. At least I could try to burn a bunch of coastal cities, but should I aim higher? Should I actually try to claim a large chunk of Donovan's core?

I just realized I should keep at least one decent city defender anywhere within 5 tiles of a border, since Commando units are scary.

After running it for almost all of the last 100 turns, I'm switching out of Pacifism into Theocracy. That's because I have no real need of Great People, and because Theocracy will allow drafted units to still get one promotion.
Here are the demos:

I don't understand how Miguelito's production is so high. I know there are coal plants, factories, levees, ironworks, and Mining Inc, but still, I don't get it.

Some generic screenshots:


Once Steam Power is done, I'll stop building Wealth and work on levees.
I've built Wealth way too much this game. It's kind of like a drug: short-term high but does nothing for you long term.

[Ginger()]

Speaking of Wealth builds vs infrastructure, how much is the Bazaar special bonus giving you? (If it's a modifier of the total value of trade routes, it might be something, but I imagine it's worthless if it modifies in the same way as Custom Houses, Harbors, etc.)

I know it's never the reason to pick Persia, the cool color and flag are first followed by Immortals, but I thought I'd ask anyways

[Lazteuq]

The Bazaar's +25% does work like a harbor's 50%, so yes, it's pretty terrible. As a Market it's still slightly useful, though. I've probably built about 6-8 of them in the largest cities. If I'd planned ahead more I should have built Banks instead but I neglected banking for a very long time. Then I might be pushing for Wall Street. Speaking of Wall Street, I imagine Charriu probably put his in the Hindu shrine city and is making insane profit. I'd love to capture that.

I am pretty happy with Persia, the Immortal being able to defend has been nice. It means the Immortals you build early will remain relevant for a long time. It's a shame real humans don't build archers as much as the AI does.

[Lazteuq]

Turn 220. I've decided to fully accept resource trades with Amica and Miguelito, that should help deter them from threatening me. I also accepted Amica's suggestion to embargo Picadilly, since I don't think he will harm me.
Charriu offered fish4fish and I was happy to resend it. Now that he's about to have Combustion, I really can't threaten him anyway. If I'm going to attack DZ, I'll need Charriu's cooperation. It would really suck if my naval invasion gets interrupted by a third party's destroyers. Or even just transports. Why are transports so strong??
I'm confused by Miguelito attacking Mjmd. I guess there's no reason why not to assert his influence in the region, I just figured his units would have something more useful to do. Miguelito owning that central island is going to be annoying, but I don't know what to do about it. I'd been considering attacking Mjmd for a while, but decided to aim for a bigger fish instead.

I've started quietly loading units on to galleons, hopefully DZ doesn't get too spooked.
I'll build just a few ironclads since they're still powerful against DZ for a while at least, even if everyone else gets destroyers.

Levees are going up and otherwise I'm spamming cannons and draft rifles.

After Assembly Line, I'm not sure if I should go for Combustion, Industrialism, or just stop teching. Combustion is an easier research goal and much better defensively. Charriu and Tarkeel already made the choice for combustion first, and I definitely understand why.
Oops, I accidentally spent a ton of EP on Tarkeel. Now I'm spending on Amica to get graphs. I wouldn't want to spend on DZ just yet, he might notice and get more suspicious.
I don't know if I mentioned already, but I put Forbidden Palace up north in GKC-land which seriously helped costs.

[Ginger()]

Industrialism buffs your land army, and Combustion buffs your navy. If you are planning on conducting only overseas campaigns, Combustion fixes your weakest link. Alternatively, if you fear invasion and want to turtle on land, I'd recommend Industrialism. If you want to invade DZ on another island, then Combustion is probably the #1 priority.
How far are you from Physics? Artillery gives better siege and antitank for home defense, though as an invading stack, Arty/Antitank gets countered by Marines.

[Lazteuq]

I guess the real question is: Railroad->Combustion-?, or SciMeth->Physics->?

Railroads and Machineguns of course make a huge improvement on defense so I should get Railroad first anyway. The +1 hammer on mines isn't very relevant since I've replaced everything with Windmills because of Serfdom.

Artillery is a solid option, considering that I'm already behind the curve, Artillery and Antitanks on defense would be pretty cost-effective. Some day Miguelito will probably try to roll over me with Tanks.

Normally you need Scientific Method to take advantage of Combustion, because even Transports require Oil. However, I wonder if I can buy oil from someone without ever revealing it?

I don't feel a need for Combustion in the short term because my frigates and ironclads should already be able to beat DZ. Eventually, not having combustion will leave me very vulnerable to Charriu, Amica, and of course Miguelito. Can I afford to even try to counter Amica and Miguelito's naval power though? Probably not. It might be best to just cede control of the seas and focus everything on land army.

The other thing I was forgetting about is that Tanks require oil, so they are a lot farther away than I imagined. Industrialism is far less appealing now.



The purposes of attacking DZ:

1. Do something fun and interesting
   
2. Get a bunch of capture gold, maybe some serious pillaging too.
   
3. Help Tarkeel with the balance of power
   
4. Have more cities to draft/whip. DZ's cities are mostly already whipped down, so not especially useful in the short term. Lots of infrastructure gets destroyed in capture, and I won't likely be able to hold the land for long anyway. In the long term, I expect Amica to assert dominance over that continent (and potentially win the game!)