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[SPOILERS] yuris125 praying to RNGesus

So there's a bit of a problem. Quite a large bit in fact. I have research visiblity on Commodore, and it's showing that he can finish Machinery in 4 turns. For me, Feudalism (same cost tech) would take 7 turns at 100% research, which I obviously cannot sustain atm. So crossbows are a huge threat I currently have no answer to
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So really the question is whether Commodore attacks next turn. If he doesn't, I can build wealth in every major city, turn on research, and maybe get to Feudalism fast enough
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Commodore did not attack

Now, my expansion is pretty much over (one more city in the north going up next turn, then the desert gold is the only remaining prospect), now I want to grow the cities, work every coastal tile I can, build rathauses, and work towards Astro. I'm not planning to attack Commodore (or anyone really) when I have such a mobility disadvantage without horses. Unless he plans an imminent attack, I don't think either of us benefits from the border looking like this




So sent him a sheep + 20g for sheep + 20g. Hopefully we can demilitarise this border without too much of a commitment

Now, speaking of the path to Astro, I have the Colossus great merchant coming up. The intention was to bulb Civil Service with him. However if I need to go for Astro bulb, I have to avoid Civil Service. Also, with my capital being rather mediocre, I'm not sure if a bureaucracy switch is worth the anarchy, and it will be a while until my first golden age

The plan may be to research Alphabet after Feudalism (need to get it out of the bulbing way anyway) and send a trade mission to Pindicator. Assuming relationship with Pindicator remains peaceful
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Commodore sent a sheep for sheep back with no numbers attached. I happily signalled it back, and moved some of the units into less threatening positions (mostly inside cities). Workers are still covered, but nothing else. Hopefully I can have Ulm and we can live happily ever after

The most significant part here is that I don't have to rush Feudalism, and therefore don't have to build wealth. There's better use for my hammers - I need basic infrastructure in southern cities, rathauses all over the place, at least 4 more workers (currently have 12, but there's a lot tile improvements still to be built, plus a decent road network, including roads through the desert), and some archers for HR happiness before they become obsolete

A picture of the north since I haven't showed that in a while, south has been the main focus lately




Florence settled this turn - a bit risky to do it without a defender in place immediately, but Pindicator doesn't have units in range, and shouldn't contest this city. The desert gold city, if I go for it, will have defenders right away. Augsburg is the city which needs worker love, and suffers the most from most of the worker force being in the south

I note Pindicator's settler in the top left corner of the screenshot, but would expect it to go for the spot between the rice and the flood plains. He's not roading towards the desert gold, so I doubt he's going there. I said before that he already has gold, and probably won't want a crappy spot like that

This picture, and the tiles being worked, also highlights how important Colossus is. Makes the need to go for Astro all the more tragic
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Commodore opened a 200 points lead by building Hanging Gardens - suspected this happened after seeing the score increase on PBSpy last night, confirmed in-game

Lately we've been talking a lot about how games are decided by neighbour luck - I feel like this game is a reminder that the map does matter. Doubt anyone would've won from my start vs Commodore's start. And it's not like his neighbout luck was amazing, being next to Mongolia in the hands of a competent player. But once he defended the initial keshik attack, his position felt unassailable

Not saying I played perfectly of course, and there was a key decision I made early on not to contest the peninsula to my north, which made sense at the time, but which I regret now, with better map knowledge. This peninsula unlocks access to some islands (maybe even another content?) to the north, which I couldn't explore back then, and which is closed off to me now

I'm sure we'll keep going, but this increasingly feels like Commodore's game to lose. Thinking hard, trying to come up with a plan which would give me a chance
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Do we have some kind of general consensus on how long fish-for-fish deals are supposed to last? Assume they're not indefinite?
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So an outline of a plan

Here's this peninsula, with an island peeking from the fog to the north of it




Pindicator has it. I want it

The most realistic way to acquire it seems to be a lot of galleys with lots of maces on them

So I think I will go ahead with bulbing Civil Service, switching to Bureacracy (maybe with anarchy), and working towards building lots of galleys and lots of maces

For all the talk of how I wanted to align with Pindicator against Commodore, they way the map played out, I don't think I can make substantial gains against Commodore. Yes, I'm not too happy about him having Horserace Bet, and with concentrated effort maybe I could take it. Maybe I could take Big Six Wheel (the southern city next to Ulm) with a naval attack. But it doesn't really unlock any new land, probably doesn't even slow down Commodore all that much. Any other attack into Commodore would have to go through miles and miles of desert, without horses, and straight into his superior production. I just don't see it as realistic

If I can acquire the peninsula, it should be possible to build robust defence from a land attack, and it might be a gateway to land which is presently unknown, without the need to obsolete Colossus via Astro research

Any other plan I could think of (wonders, bulb options, etc.) seemed unlikely to let me compete with Commodore. Wonders - he's industrious and can build better. Specialists and bulbs - he has better land and more pop, he can get more great people. I don't see a path to victory without acquiring more land, the only ways to do it are Astro or military, and Astro would invalidate too much of my economy

Now, again, there's a question of whether I should've claimed this peninsula earlier - it is close to my start after all. The big reasons I didn't:
* It was full of jungle, and I didn't plan to research IW early
* Big part of its power is Calendar resources, which I also didn't plan to research early (still don't have it)
* I was worried about being able to defend it against keshiks
* I hoped to claim more of the southern forest, and didn't know how much of a claim Commodore had on it

Now I regret conceding it without a fight, but I think the decision was justified at the time

Now, I did signal a fish for fish to Pindicator last turn, hence my question about how long after a fish for fish signal I can attack without anyone thinking I broke the agreement
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I think general consensus is that fish for fish is sacred for (at least ) 10 turns
Completed: pb38, pb40, pb41, pb42, pb46 and pb49
Playing: pbem78
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I guess fish for fish is 10t by default ?
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Thanks - yeah, that's what made sense to me, since deals normally last 10 turns. That's not a problem then, in 10 turns I won't even have maces yet - need to finish Feudalism, research Alphabet to unlock CS bulb, then self-tech Machinery, which is as expensive as Feudalism (hopefully my tech rate will be better by then, with cities growing and rathauses going up)
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