[PB81] Lurkers from the Deep

[Krill]

If I pick up a fourth game it will be a game of civ 6.

[thrawn]

Neither SD nor Dreylin on TBS island but if you have to put one I concur with Gav it's definitely SD based on PB78. Otherwise you can get one more player and do the Mexican standoff on 3 islands. Why do you think it's best avoided, Tarkeel?

I'd love to play and was very tempted to sign up as the concept is great but realistically I should be finding a permanent sub for PB78.

Shouldn't the players know who's on their island before they start picking? Otherwise the middle players who are not sure where they'll end up will be at a disadvantage.

[Tarkeel]

Superdeath was always going to be the tough one to place here. His instincts are too good for the green island, but his follow-through is lacking for the veteran island. My offer of a duel island with Mjmd was thus note entirely a joke.

My tentative ranking:

Gira is probably the clearest green here, and Xist and greenline are similarly obvious on the green island. All of them are showing much improvement in PB79, which is promising.

TBS was one of the best players around, but last played in PB59 where he got stymied by a focused Commodore. Probably still the easiest to place on veteran island.
Mjmd has had several good showings, but has a tendency to get over-focused and inflexible. Still probably a better player than his reporting implies.
Naufraggar is also prone to over-focusing, but he's a very good reporter which can shift the story to him being better than he actually is.
Superdeath seems to be only capable of building a hammer-based empire; he has a tendency to overbuild mines which are used to fuel a novel wealth-based economy which peters off in the Renaissance era.
Dreylin is competent but not flashy, or in his own words, more passive.

When it comes down to Dreylin vs Superdeath for the last spot on veteran island, I think there are two factors that favor Superdeath: His sheer amount of experience, and he's probably the player most likely to repel an invasion.

Neither SD nor Dreylin on TBS island but if you have to put one I concur with Gav it's definitely SD based on PB78. Otherwise you can get one more player and do the Mexican standoff on 3 islands. Why do you think it's best avoided, Tarkeel?

I think that three-player standoffs tend to devolve into nobody actually pulling the trigger, and everyone pulling the others down. Even when there's a clear leader for the other two to gang-up on, there's so much potential to backstab the other. Sure, it's probably fun to read, but I don't think it's a fun game to play.

[Qgqqqqq]

I don't think a three player island would be a fun game to read, let alone play. There's a reason we've (almost?) never played a PBEM with 3 people.

[klops]

If someone is interested in scrolling through reports... we just had a game at civforum with several big 2- and 3-player islands. (PB 93)
Interesting to lurk but I had the impression that it was difficult to play. You either had this standoff that prevents you from fully attacking someone while not being able to defend the other side, or you had some kind of duel while not knowing what is going on on other islands.
The latter group had early wars and a disadvantage later on.


edit: seems like players would have less struggle with 3 tiers instead of 2

[scooter]

- Hot take the lower skill continent is going to host the winner this game. Most likely that 5th or 6th skill player. Wars are going to be easier over there.

I'm curious if anyone else actually believes this? I view the lower skill continent as having essentially 0 chance to win the game. I actually think the net effect of this setup is simply that there will be an appearance of a "lower skill" player being a contender, but in reality it's very hard to keep the train on the tracks into the late stages of the game when you're outmatched by a better player. Also I think it's easy to imagine someone thinking "this is my big chance" and then getting bogged down in an unproductive war because they picked the wrong window to try it.

[Gavagai]

- Hot take the lower skill continent is going to host the winner this game. Most likely that 5th or 6th skill player. Wars are going to be easier over there.

I'm curious if anyone else actually believes this? I view the lower skill continent as having essentially 0 chance to win the game. I actually think the net effect of this setup is simply that there will be an appearance of a "lower skill" player being a contender, but in reality it's very hard to keep the train on the tracks into the late stages of the game when you're outmatched by a better player. Also I think it's easy to imagine someone thinking "this is my big chance" and then getting bogged down in an unproductive war because they picked the wrong window to try it.

Well, I definitely think that someone from low-skill continent has a much higher chance of winning than they would have in a normal setup where everyone is mixed in a single soup. The scenario where high-skill people cancel each other out while some of the low-skill guys consolidate their continent quickly is definitely possible. I agree though, that even in such a position there is room for rookie mistakes, and victory is not guaranteed. This is the thing that makes this scenario interesting, I think.

[Gavagai]

On the second thought, everyone on the low-skill island has strong pacifist tendencies, except for Xist whose warmonger skills leave much to be desired.

[scooter]

- Hot take the lower skill continent is going to host the winner this game. Most likely that 5th or 6th skill player. Wars are going to be easier over there.

I'm curious if anyone else actually believes this? I view the lower skill continent as having essentially 0 chance to win the game. I actually think the net effect of this setup is simply that there will be an appearance of a "lower skill" player being a contender, but in reality it's very hard to keep the train on the tracks into the late stages of the game when you're outmatched by a better player. Also I think it's easy to imagine someone thinking "this is my big chance" and then getting bogged down in an unproductive war because they picked the wrong window to try it.

Well, I definitely think that someone from low-skill continent has a much higher chance of winning than they would have in a normal setup where everyone is mixed in a single soup. The scenario where high-skill people cancel each other out while some of the low-skill guys consolidate their continent quickly is definitely possible. I agree though, that even in such a position there is room for rookie mistakes, and victory is not guaranteed. This is the thing that makes this scenario interesting, I think.

Yeah to be clear, I agree that the odds are higher. But also, 0.2% is twice as good a chance as 0.1%.

[Tarkeel]

On the second thought, everyone on the low-skill island has strong pacifist tendencies, except for Xist whose warmonger skills leave much to be desired.

Yeah, I don't think the odds of someone consolidating the entire green continent is that much higher than someone consolidating the veterans.