I think it all hinges on CVille. If that city falls (and holds an immediate counter attack) the horses can get easily cut, then Spullla have to defend with axes and spears, and are forced to keep units between Antietam and Gburg, leaving Fburg out in the cold where it eventually gets captured by Whosit after Shiloh.
If Cville doesn't fall (and that depends purely on the co-operation between AK and Jowy) then Spullla will slave down their cities, head straight for construction, whip 3 cats, adn then wipe out each stack as needed. Actually I think they'll do that anyway, but with a massively reduced city count from losing Cville (and then white dot) they'll be too slow. They'll also be forced to keep units they slave in Antietam and Gburg if they want them to be happy and keep on teching, which obviously hinders their military advantage.
If Cville doesn't fall (and that depends purely on the co-operation between AK and Jowy) then Spullla will slave down their cities, head straight for construction, whip 3 cats, adn then wipe out each stack as needed. Actually I think they'll do that anyway, but with a massively reduced city count from losing Cville (and then white dot) they'll be too slow. They'll also be forced to keep units they slave in Antietam and Gburg if they want them to be happy and keep on teching, which obviously hinders their military advantage.