@Scooter,
Even though I'm not a leaver, despite the remainers' best efforts, I do think a relatively graceful, if not painless, Brexit is possible. I also work on the margins of the City, so have a little understanding of its problems and worries specifically.
On passporting, 538 is completely right, but not even right enough -- no amount of free movement will save London banks from losing their passporting and, especially, euroclearing rights. In fact, the ECB has already tried taking the latter away, and it took a court claim for London to keep those, even whilst in the EU (http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-wins-cou...1425462219). I don't think this issue was appreciated in any real sense by either side, it would have made for much better Remain ammunition than the non-sensical "economy collapse" they trumpeted. Anyway, this ship has sailed, and the City will take a hit, albeit again I'm not sure that people appreciate exactly what the hit will be. The business threatened is very competitive, high-volume transactional stuff, the profits in which really go to technology companies, rather than banks, and the tech guys will probably stay in London anyway. The high-margin consultancy-driven financial work does not really rely on the EU in any meaningful way and will stay in London. Banks will certainly be pared down, and there will be some capital and labour readjustment costs associated with this, especially as a lot of infrastructure could become worthless overnight, but it's not really a long-term problem. After all, see Switzerland, whose financial sector is not just ok with being out of the EU, but prefers it this way.
Moving on to the Venn Diagram, there is a large, large spectrum of possibilities between EEA and "Clean break". There will be a bunch of treaties, which will define the relationship between the UK and the EU, which would ultimately fall somewhere between the extremes, but closer to EEA. For example, apart from EEA (of which Switzerland is not a member), there is the EFTA (European Free Trade Association, of which Switzerland is a member). It is likely that UK will at least join the latter, and that there will be some provisions for free movement in the treaties that would form a part of this membership. A big issue at the moment is that the leavers themselves don't really know what they want in terms of immigration -- are French students a problem, or is it Polish plumbers? Do we mind tourists, or are worried just about the people who come to settle here? What about temporary workers, is it ok for Romanians to come in the later summer to work on the fields for a couple of months? Leavers mostly wanted to vote for a chance to even have this very discussion at the level of national politics, something that was simply not possible within the EU.
Even though I'm not a leaver, despite the remainers' best efforts, I do think a relatively graceful, if not painless, Brexit is possible. I also work on the margins of the City, so have a little understanding of its problems and worries specifically.
On passporting, 538 is completely right, but not even right enough -- no amount of free movement will save London banks from losing their passporting and, especially, euroclearing rights. In fact, the ECB has already tried taking the latter away, and it took a court claim for London to keep those, even whilst in the EU (http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-wins-cou...1425462219). I don't think this issue was appreciated in any real sense by either side, it would have made for much better Remain ammunition than the non-sensical "economy collapse" they trumpeted. Anyway, this ship has sailed, and the City will take a hit, albeit again I'm not sure that people appreciate exactly what the hit will be. The business threatened is very competitive, high-volume transactional stuff, the profits in which really go to technology companies, rather than banks, and the tech guys will probably stay in London anyway. The high-margin consultancy-driven financial work does not really rely on the EU in any meaningful way and will stay in London. Banks will certainly be pared down, and there will be some capital and labour readjustment costs associated with this, especially as a lot of infrastructure could become worthless overnight, but it's not really a long-term problem. After all, see Switzerland, whose financial sector is not just ok with being out of the EU, but prefers it this way.
Moving on to the Venn Diagram, there is a large, large spectrum of possibilities between EEA and "Clean break". There will be a bunch of treaties, which will define the relationship between the UK and the EU, which would ultimately fall somewhere between the extremes, but closer to EEA. For example, apart from EEA (of which Switzerland is not a member), there is the EFTA (European Free Trade Association, of which Switzerland is a member). It is likely that UK will at least join the latter, and that there will be some provisions for free movement in the treaties that would form a part of this membership. A big issue at the moment is that the leavers themselves don't really know what they want in terms of immigration -- are French students a problem, or is it Polish plumbers? Do we mind tourists, or are worried just about the people who come to settle here? What about temporary workers, is it ok for Romanians to come in the later summer to work on the fields for a couple of months? Leavers mostly wanted to vote for a chance to even have this very discussion at the level of national politics, something that was simply not possible within the EU.