[Spoiler]PB44 Lurker Thread: Nostalgia Edition

[Zed-F]

If DZ were trying to win the game one might think that annoying all one’s neighbors simultaneously is a bad idea, but I don’t think that’s been DZ’s objective for a while now.

[Krill]

Then again, I was implicitly assuming Commodore's northern border was safe for the time being.  Apparently that was a pretty bad error

Yeah, but then again, who would have thought that DZ, after conquering RegentMan and being in a war with Alhazard, would start another war with his last remaining neighbor.

I feel that many veteran players (defined as players whom have played a significant number of games on RB) have a fatal flaw of never understanding that we play against people who learn. DZ as the player now is not the same as the player who played the CFC team in the Apolyton DG.

This is why you should respect your opponents. A single spear in a Holy city against a player you know has HBR is inherently disrespectful, and no sentry net is poor play. Good on DZ for punishing Commodore. I doubt he gets the capital but I don't see how Com takes that city back.

[Rowain]

Supporting your neighbours enemy is a good thing as long as you are strong enough to ward off any retaliation.

Poor RegentMan is without Metal again.

[Charriu]

Then again, I was implicitly assuming Commodore's northern border was safe for the time being.  Apparently that was a pretty bad error

Yeah, but then again, who would have thought that DZ, after conquering RegentMan and being in a war with Alhazard, would start another war with his last remaining neighbor.

I feel that many veteran players (defined as players whom have played a significant number of games on RB) have a fatal flaw of never understanding that we play against people who learn. DZ as the player now is not the same as the player who played the CFC team in the Apolyton DG.

This is why you should respect your opponents. A single spear in a Holy city against a player you know has HBR is inherently disrespectful, and no sentry net is poor play. Good on DZ for punishing Commodore. I doubt he gets the capital but I don't see how Com takes that city back.

Oh I didn't mean to say that Commodore is without fault here. Leaving only one spear there is certainly a mistake. But then again DZ is still in a hot war with Alhazard and this war as far as I can tell did not reach any decisive conclusion. If only DZ would tell us a little bit more in his thread.

[Mardoc]

That GG axe is the crowning cherry on top, honestly - Donovan might not even lose a unit to take the city.  Perfect response to a spear garrison.

I don't see how Com takes that city back.

If Donovan keeps pushing, and Commodore does a heck of a lot of whipping, and eventually gets a good battle (while Donovan's other neighbors decide to counterattack to prevent him reinforcing, *and* superdeath takes a peace treaty), Comm could recapture the city in maybe 10 turns.  But even if that happens, Comm's been set back 30 turns, and it pretty much would require three other players to do what Comm needs. It's plausible that each player might, but certainly not something guaranteed.

If Donovan is willing to stop here for now, I think he gets the city.  Possibly for a small enough cost to be a net profit.

If DZ were trying to win the game one might think that annoying all one’s neighbors simultaneously is a bad idea, but I don’t think that’s been DZ’s objective for a while now.

I'm...not sure.  I think Commodore is a legitimate target to help win the game - shrine, Great Lighthouse, both of those could be enough profit to justify the lost hammers, especially when the number of lost hammers is looking likely small.  Plus, take the reasoning for Commodore's war on Superdeath and turn it up to 11, even if he doesn't keep a city.  It's not like Commodore is a safe neighbor to allow to be strong long term, even if there wasn't a short term risk. Donovan doesn't even necessarily have to conquer Commodore right now, just set him back enough that Superdeath can keep him in check.

DZ probably should have gotten peace with Alhazard first - if you're going to be at war with all your neighbors it should ideally be sequentially.

If he offers Commodore peace after the initial spoils, then he might get away without it, since the wars are seeming to be de facto sequential. Both Regent and Alhazard were huddled in cities at the start of this war.

[Zed-F]

DZ probably should have gotten peace with Alhazard first - if you're going to be at war with all your neighbors it should ideally be sequentially.

This is the bit I’m thinking of. SD can’t launch a real attack at Comm because of chumchu. Right now Donovan is encouraging Alhazard to be serious about the war rather than take a city spot or two, and he was already thinking that way. 

But by this point I expect that even Comm’s shrine doesn’t give Donovan a realistic chance of salvaging his economy over the long term, even if you don’t factor in potential retaliation. He’s simply too far behind. If the real winner here isn’t Alhazard, it’s probably Gavagi.

[Mardoc]

But by this point I expect that even Comm’s shrine doesn’t give Donovan a realistic chance of salvaging his economy over the long term, even if you don’t factor in potential retaliation. He’s simply too far behind. If the real winner here isn’t Alhazard, it’s probably Gavagi.

I agree - I guess what I'm thinking of would be shrine now and something else in 10 turns and eventually cap it off with the Great Lighthouse (and Mids from Alhazard).  If Donovan provokes enough of a reaction to keep everyone else's economy suppressed while he's getting ahold of the wonders.  Shrine and capture gold, in this model, are just meant to pay for the army it takes to get the wonders that do the real work, while weakening Commodore enough that coming back for another bite every 10 turns is plausible.

I'm thinking this move improves Donovan's odds of winning, but from 3% to 5%, not to favorite.   Still agree that Gav and Alhazard both benefit too.  And all of those odds are subtracted directly from Commodore's chances.

His real problem is that he probably doesn't have the military to actually convert all these partial conquests into full conquests, and he needs to do that.  But I could be wrong, he might have more than it appears.

[Thoth]

Commodore may or may not be willing to take peace after losing his shrine. The whole "war for a bit then take 10 turns of peace" is nice in theory, but it does require your opponent to cooperate.

[Lewwyn]

Great job DZ!

He was always going to have an uphill battle being in the middle and if he hadn’t attacked out, it would have collapsed in on himself. That shrine and likely TGL are the best ways for DZ to make a run at it.

[Mardoc]

Great Lighthouse:  I don't have a lot of coast and I don't foresee having many friends to exploit its benefits.

...

--Keeping this city would just add to the negative gpt maintenance woes I have had since about T80.  Conquest gold has been the only thing keeping my units from striking.

Ok, I no longer believe that DZ has a chance of winning this.  If he has neither income nor any way to get some, it really doesn't matter how many games he wrecks, he can't win.  And if he thinks a city with 3 gpt in trade routes and 10 gpt in cottages is going to be a net loser, then he's not on any path to income. Even before counting any value in the wonders for the rest of his civ.