[PB65 - Cornflakes] Rising from the Ashes

[Cornflakes]

Thanks, so you definitely bulbed it. That's the most important element.

Yes I bulbed it.

[Cornflakes]

Code of Laws completed EOT and Confucianism founded in Control on the southwest coast. That religion will likely do nothing in this game since I will be converting to Christianity in the GA. Next turn I bulb Civil Service with the Great Prophet which will end up about 40 beakers short but I'll be able to complete the tech at end of turn. The next Great Person for the GA is born at the same time, setting me up for the civics swap.

I've been thinking more about the tech path. Over the 8-turn GA I'll have about 800 net modified beakers (including library + 20% prerequisite bonus).
Construction is about 550.
Metal Casting 450.
Sailing 150 (Lighthouse + Moai)
Machinery 1100
Horseback Riding + Archery 500

MJMD's power graph has been flat so I do not expect a backstab in coordination with the SAC/SD peace expiration. SAC's power has also been flat since we signed peace. Superdeath on the other hand has spiked, now equaling MJMD/Pindi/SAC but still less than me by a decent margin. On the other hand Superdeath can concentrate all material on my obnoxious border city while I have only 1/3 of my military there. However I'm pretty confident that I can hold the hill city + 20% culture location.

   

I'll have 6 axes, 3 spears, and I think 7 chariots when peace expires. That should be enough to hold until Catapults. Worst case I get a good hammer exchange against a smaller/weaker neighbor and achieve the goal of slowing down the Cataphracts. Up on the SAC border I have 10 axes/3 spears, and in the west at the MJMD/Pindicator border I have 5 axes/5 spears.

I really really really want to grab Metal Casting for the forges + Colossus. However I think the wiser course of action is to take Construction first. I have plenty of economic build items opened up now via religion and Courthouses. AP will provide more hammers than forges at equivalent cost. And if Construction will hold the borders secure then I can tech Monarchy > bulb Divine Right > build Spiral Minaret for 4x the gold yield of Colossus. Then pick up Paper for 4x the beaker yield. Slip in HBR at some point to unlock War Elephants and HA.

[Cornflakes]

Peace expires with Superdeath and SAC, border city defensive forces in place, GP birthed, Civil Service bulbed [@Charriu came a few beakers short so actually completed when I ended turn], religion spread to capital, treasury exhausted with gold balance of 0 and -10gpt deficit this turn ... the GA bonus commerce will hold us over until Courthouses kick in.



   

Superdeath's power has spiked hard over the last few turns, but nobody has HBR yet so these are ... axes? Swords?? Chariots???? It will take at lease 2:1 unit advantage to take out my defenders, and based on the power graph my 1/3 commitment should be adequate to contain Superdeath's full commitment. If SAC doesn't declare war in a turn or two after the treaty expires I’ll cheat the zone defenders one turn closer. Which should correspond with the arrival of Superdeath’s newest conscripts.

[Cornflakes]

Suckstatciv didn't make any hostile movements and had 5-6 workers improving tiles along my border ... mostly riverside cottages (half plains and half grassland ) ... This is my ticket to victory. On the other side of the world Pindicator is building up a nice solid base for himself with a nice Hanging Gardens play on 10 cities, catapulting him from tied with me in pop to now a 25% pop lead. I also is the first in the world to complete Currency which I hope was via GMerchant bulb but I fear was natural research and he has a 1000 gold trade mission incoming. Hanging Gardens could also supply a Great Engineer in combination with a long-brewing Carnegie Library for either Machinery bulb or a wonder rush.

   

Pindicator is out of his golden age as of the turn roll and his GNP is now a solid best-in-the-world after my GA ends. Pindi's gpt was showing 0 so his 110 gnp is with slider up. His culture rate is around 40 so that's 70bpt net, or probably 50 gpt. This in itself isn't worrying but it could be with a cash windfall from a trade mission. It is actually ok for my long-term prospects that Pindicator is putting up a solid performance. That makes him much less likely to try messing with me in the short term while I am consolidating from my early aggression, and it should make MJMD much less likely to mess with me as well since that would just leave Pindicator as the undisputed victor. I believe that I have the best avenues for mid-game conquest in Sucksatciv's India and Superdeath. On the other hand, Pindicator has Bing as a weak neighbor and also can jump in against Superdeath.

MJMD got the toughest neighbor position with me and Pindicator as his closest neighbors, but on the other hand he borders both SAC and Bing who have completely stagnated tech-wise and are stuck in the ancient era. MJMD's GNP is 80, less 40 culture = 40 net. His graph is unusually steady so I can't tell if that is with slider on or off ... has he been saving gold for 15 turns? Is the bump 2 turns ago where he turn on the slider? Not sure, but what is clear is that even with PRO Great Lighthouse his tech pace is still lagging. My best guess is that he has been saving up a large bankroll in anticipation of a Golden Age which he will use to push through classical tech with a bit of additional known tech bonus from Pindi, Superdeath, and I.

Superdeath has responded as I had hoped ... aggressively building up an ancient military which will stare helplessly up at my walled hill fortress GNP has declined precipitously over the last 10 turns, down to around 30 net (from 80 and increasing). Even if I ultimately lose the border city I have significantly delay the Cataphract storm and built up a sold base of cultural control over those tiles which will make re-conquest easy.

   

Since Sucksatciv signed peace I was able to draw my entire defensive force down to Gross Profit. Superdeath moved a mini-stack to chop the forest, but I think that is a mistake. Once the forest defensive bonus is gone I have a 50/50 shot at clearing his entire stack at the cost of 2 chariots, and an 80% chance to clear it for the cost of 3 chariots. My chariots are pretty much obsolete now and costing maintenance so I would happily make that trade. Worst case I lose 4 chariots for 3 axes and a spear + worker for a mildly positive trade and reduced expenses, and maybe even pick up a worker if he doesn't have anything to recapture.

[Cornflakes]

I forgot to say that since SAC had a bunch of workers improving on my borders I war/peaced him to start staggering peace treaties. My plan is to try and get peace with Superdeath at the end of my GA with 2-3 turns left on the SAC peace treaty. Due to the peace treaty with SAC I decided to squeeze in Metal Casting ahead of a military tech, and I'm leaning more towards Archery+HBR now for the mobility, but am still considering stretching my luck to Machinery for maces

[Cornflakes]

I got a little greedy again and whipped the Madrassa at Gross Profit instead of the spear and it almost cost me Superdeath launched a chariot strike against me there ... I was really really fortunate to be able to lock in the forced peace with Sucksatciv 4 turns ago. And I was also really fortunate that Superdeath decided to throw those chariots fruitlessly into the fortress instead of trying to outflank me along the roads through SAC culture. I was not expecting a mega-stack of chariots so he probably could have razed Herd Effect and Replan Those spears were built in anticipation of Superdeath completing HBR like 5 turns ago as our peace was expiring (I still can't believe nobody has HBR yet ... I'm still trickling out spears in anticipation).

   

There are a total of 13 dead Byzantine chariots worth 390 hammers, with my losses totaling 2 spears and 1 axe for 105 hammers (from the combat log it looks like he tilted and threw his last chariot against an axe at 25% odds ... and won ).

I plugged that combat into Vodka out of curiosity with 16 axes facing 4 spears and came up with ... 25% chance of defeating the spear stack and 12.2 expected chariot casualties. So odds were about as expected. He lost 13 chariots against my spear stack but then won a low odds battle against my axe. But as the last battle demonstrated my full-fortify axes (almost all of them) still get good odds against the chariots so the real question is why did Superdeath attack and suicide a 400 hammer stack knowing that it was inadequate? And why did he build all those chariots in the first place ? Once spears come on the scene in force chariots are pretty much obsolete. And what was he spending all that 100+ gnp that he achieved early on? Had I been in his position I would have instantly researched HBR after the aggressive border city was planted.

Pindicator jumped in with a war declaration as well so there was some degree of coordination there but Pindicator is obviously not planning to attack unless it is with a galley thrust. I am therefore buffing the defenders of my coastal border city. I have a few chariots with range as warm bodies and can get an axe + spear + unit whip inside with a turn of warning which should be more than enough to hold of a "keep him honest" thrust.

Power graph after the turn roll:

   



Since Superdeath burned his ammunition on a misfire I started shuffling a couple units back up to the SAC border. I will be able to get full fortify on a couple axes there by the time peace expires. And I moved my 6-chariot "warm bodies" stack into a more central location. Hopefully this isn't all just an elaborate plan where he slams 20 axes into me next turn now that I have pulled back a little.

I'm going on a real infrastructure push during this golden age, so much so that I think that I will revolt out of Organized Religion at the end of the GA. I'll have Courthouses, Forges, and at least one of Temple/Monastery whipped in most cities. Theocracy will give me a 2nd promo on everything (shock or sentry HA without stables, accuracy catapults, shock or CR2 maces).

[Cornflakes]

Operation Slow Cataphracts has been a smashing success. My odds of victory have ticked up a notch I'd put it at

Cornflakes: 50%
Pindicator: 30%
MJMD: 20%
Superdeath/Bing/Sucksatciv out of the running

Gross Profit has now developed to the point where it can churn out spears via the whip at 2 per 3 turns on a 5 -> 3 cycle. I probably won't build a forge there until I've burned through the happy cap whipping since that messes up the 2-whip of a spear. This city's primary purpose is to hold down the border, and in a pinch be an expendable lighting rod to absorb the fury of a catapult stack and give my core time to respond. Therefore military it is! The secondary purpose of Gross Profit is to steal cultural control over the tile 1NE of the city. From there I can reach Superdeath's capital in 2 turns with 2-movers I've started tracking the culture and we're increasing approximately equally now that I have a Madrassa + Monastery completed. 3rd ring borders pop in 10 turns with will give me an extra +20 tile-culture per turn which will be all profit. I'll have approximately 700 culture deficit to make up which is 35 turns at 20 culture per turn (45 turns from now). That is well within an acceptable timeframe for a realistic attack.

[Cornflakes]

Pindicator's pop has dropped precipitously since his GA ended. He went from 25% lead in pop after completing hanging gardens down to equal me (MJMD is now first in the world with approximately 2 more pop). Clearly he is whipping hard ... but for what? His power graph didn't increase, and actually dropped slightly from all the pop-power whipped away. What infrastructure does he have available? Markets? Oh, right, PROtective now gets +50% bonus for markets so that would make sense. His savings rate is now 51 gpt which is slightly worrying.

I have 2 more turns of GA left and then we'll get a real comparison on the graphs. Inflation has kicked in and is already at 8 gpt! I'm a little concerned about my expenses coming out of the GA. I'll have a total of 5 courthouses in my most expensive cities completed so I should be in the black, but most of my research will be coming from scientists. Pyramids really was a hugely important wonder this game. My low/no income is one of the reasons I ultimately decided to make a play for Colossus (in addition to getting Forges online with the OrgReligion bonus, and unlocking lumbermills).

[Cornflakes]

Someone researched Construction, but it is not Superdeath because he did not get a bridge on the river crossing that I can see. Unfortunately I don’t have vision on a road crossing of MJMD or Pindicator but I’m pretty sure it is Pindicator because MJMD just got Currency within the last couple turns and now has a gold balance near 300 suggesting that he is did not just finish a tech. Actually, how does he still have 300 gold after just finishing Currency and only making 50gpt? There’s no way he would save up that much excess gold and delay Currency by 5 turns. Did I miss another merchant getting born and he’s been burning through a trade mission?

[Cornflakes]

Someone finally acquired HBR, and I’m 95% sure it was Pindicator since he is the only rival with a power increase last turn. He has both Construction and HBR now … I wonder what he is planning? I have signaled war vs. Superdeath a couple times so he may be just looking to pick up some cheap scraps when I go in (hint: not soon, Sucksatciv is more appetizing with less competition). I have no problem piling onto Superdeath with a legitimate threat though since I’m maintaining a strong garrison at my highly offensive border city. I just don’t want to commit to a conquest there when Pindicator will be the big winner. Or maybe Pindicator is just looking to stay defensive or opportunistically flexible?

I’m researching Currency finally. Pindicator, Superdeath, and MJMD all have currency (I think in that order) so I’m getting 15% KTB I have Construction already for defensive deterrence, and most of my temples, monasteries, and forges are completed. Therefore Currency is appealing from a wealth building perspective in rocketing me forwards through Paper for UoS, or Machinery for Maces.

Outline of long term plan:
- Consolidating my land area advantage into a massive production edge. I have recently whipped infrastructure and a few catapults heavily so currently I'm at a pop deficit of about 25% compared to leader MJMD. I really want to get Machinery for windmills on all my plains hills! I have a couple filler cities that I've been holding off settling due to negative gold income. Those new cities include a copy of plains hill sheep and deer resources so they will be nice little production centers once they grow onto a few windmills. The bankruptcy pressure is alleviated now that I have courthouses online, plus Colossus, and Currency next turn. So I'll be building a couple settlers soon.
- Build UoS/Spiral Minaret to continue building up my passive GNP, and capitalize on the already-built monasteries and temples.
- Maintain world top power for safety/deterrence
- Leverage my production into conquest of India (Sucksatciv)