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[PB66] Tarkeel and civac explore the untamed wilds

Turn 170 (1100 AD)
Alea iacta est.


Hazard is finally whipped dry, and his cities are building maces, so we discussed waiting yet another turn. After some siming we decided that we'd come out ahead if he attacked into our stack, so in we went. This is going to be bloody. We still did another wave of eight 2-pop whips this turn.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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Turn 171 (1110 AD)
There was a firefight!


That actually went better than we'd hoped for. Our sims had shown that sending in the C3 knights first to flank away our catapults was the correct move, and only then follow up with catapult collateral. Hazard went with the dogmatic catapults first, and while most of our stack is pretty banged up, his is worse.

We killed
  • 17 Catapults
  • 5 Knights
  • 7 WarElephants
Losing
  • 7 WarElephants
  • 3 Pike
  • 4 Knight
  • 1 Crossbow
  • 1 Spear
In total, his supercharged knights inflicted 11 of our 16 losses, so this turn we're looking to return the favor:



The siege of Hieraconpolis
We start by bombarding away the cultural defense, and send in some cats:
Catapult (2.5) vs G1 Longbow, 0.0%: flawless loss
Catapult (2.5) vs G1 Longbow, 0.0%: flawless loss
Catapult (2.0) vs G1 Longbow, 0.0%: flawless loss
Catapult (4.0) vs G1 Longbow, 0.1%: loss, but inflicting 2 rounds of damage
B1 Catapult (4.8) vs C3 Knight, 0.5%: loss, inflicting 1 round of damage
B1 Catapult (4.5) vs C3 Knight (?), 2.3%: loss, inflicting 1 round of damage, C2 knights now face WE at 68%
B1 Catapult (4.0) vs C3 Knight (?), 8.1%: loss, inflicting 2 round of damage, revealing the LB again
CR2 Catapult (4.7) vs G1 Longbow (3.8), 44.2%: flawless loss
CR2 Catapult (4.8) vs G1 Longbow (3.8), 45.9%: flawless loss
CR2 Catapult (4.6) vs G1 Longbow (3.8), 43.2%: loss, inflicting 1 round of damage, C2 knights now face WE at 88%
B1 Catapult (4.5) vs C3 Knight (6.4), 20.3%: flawless loss
B1 Catapult (3.8) vs C3 Knight (6.4), 7.9%: loss, inflicting 1 round of damage.
B1 Catapult (3.8) vs G1 Longbow (2.9), 39.4%: withdraw!

We switch to killing while our knights still target knights over spears, just have to clear out some elephants.

C2 Knight vs C2 WarElephant (5.3), 86.9%: win!
C2 Knight vs C2 Shock WarElephant (5.0), 88.7%: win!

A 3.5 str spear appears out of the unlisted clutter of units, ruining our killing spree, so it's back to the cats.

B1 Catapult (3.7) vs C3 Knight (5.1), 24.9%: withdraw!
B1 Catapult (3.7) vs C3 Knight (5.0), 46.0%: withdraw!
B1 Catapult (3.5) vs C3 Knight (4.9), 44.6%: flawless loss
B1 Catapult (3.5) vs C3 Knight (4.9), 44.6%: flawless loss

The extra collateral knocks the top spear down to a manageable 2.7, but we send in the last catapult before starting the slaughter.
CR2 Catapult (4.3) vs G2 Archer (1.9), 73.3%: withdraw!
C1 Knight vs C3 Knight (4.9), 96.8%: win!
C1 Knight vs Spear (2.6), 98.7%: win!
C1 Knight (9.6) vs Spear (2.6), 96.6%: win!
C1 Knight (9.6) vs Spear (2.6), 96.6%: win!
C1 Knight (9.5) vs Axe (4.4), 96.4%: win!
C1 Knight (9.5) vs Spear (2.5), 96.8%: win!
C1 Knight (9.3) vs Spear (2.5), 96.6%: win!
C1 Knight (9.3) vs Spear (2.5), 96.6%: win!
C1 Knight (9.1) vs C3 Knight (4.6), 92.8%: win!
C1 Knight (9.1) vs C3 Knight (4.6), 92.8%: win!
C1 Knight (8.9) vs C3 Knight (4.6), 92.3%: win!
Knight (9.3) vs C3 Knight (4.6), 91.2%: win!
C2 Knight (8.7) vs Spear (2.4), 97.1%: win!
C2 Knight (8.3) vs C2 Shock WarElephant (3.4), 93.0%: win!
C2 Knight (8.3) vs Spear (2.4), 97.0%: win!
C2 Knight (8.0) vs C3 Knight (4.3), 93.2%: win!
C2 Knight (8.0) vs C3 Knight (4.3), 93.2%: win!
C2 Knight (7.4) vs Spear (2.2), 92.5%: win!
C2 Knight (7.4) vs C2 Knight (4.3), 97.2%: flawless loss
C2 Knight (7.4) vs C2 Knight (4.3), 97.2%: win!
C2 Knight (7.4) vs C2 WarElephant (3.0), 97.3%: win!
C2 Knight (7.4) vs C2 HorseArcher (4.3), 93.4%: win!
C2 WarElephant (6.2) vs Axe (3.5), 90.3%: win!
C2 WarElephant (5.9) vs Axe (3.3), 89.2%: win!
C1 WarElephant (6.2) vs Axe (3.3), 87.9%: win!
C1 WarElephant (6.2) vs Spear (2.1), 87.9%: win!
C1 WarElephant (6.2) vs Archer (1.9), 94.9%: loss
C2 WarElephant (5.6) vs Archer (1.8), 89.8%: loss
C2 WarElephant (5.6) vs Axe (3.3), 89.7%: win!
C2 WarElephant (5.3) vs Axe (3.3), 88.3%: win!
WarElephant (6.2) vs Axe (3.4), 89.2%: win!
C2 Knight (6.4) vs C2 HorseArcher (3.7), 93.2%: win!
C2 Knight (6.4) vs HorseArcher (4.3), 93.7%: win!
C1 Axe vs Axe (3.4), 85.6%: win!
C2 Knight (6.1) vs C1 WarChariot (3.8), 93.5%: win!
C1 Knight (6.1) vs C1 WarChariot (3.8), 91.9%: win!
CG1 Crossbow (5.5) vs HorseArcher (3.7), 95.0%: win!
C1 Crossbow (4.9) vs C3 Knight (2.8), 91.1%: loss
Knight vs C1 Axe (3.3), 99.9%: win!
C1 Axe (4.5) vs Axe (3.2), 74.7%: loss
C1 Axe (4.3) vs Axe (2.7), 85.0%: loss
F1 Chariot vs C3 Knight (2.8), 84.1% + 3.2%: win
CG1 Crossbow (5.5) vs C3 Knight (2.8), 90.5%: loss
C2 Knight (4.8) vs Axe (2.9), 84.1%: win!
Spear (3.6) vs G1 Longbow (1.5), 80.2%: win!
Axe (4.5) vs HorseArcher (3.6), 75.1%: loss
Spear (3.4) vs CG2 Archer (0.8), 90%: win!
C2 WarElephant (3.4) vs C3 Knight (2.5), 88.3%: win!
C1 Pike (3.1) vs Axe (0.8), 97.0%: win!
Axe (4.3) vs C3 Knight (2.5), 88.5%: loss
Pike (2.5) vs C1 WarChariot (2.8), 85.6%: win
Pike (2.4) vs C3 Knight (2.4), 85.4%: win
Pike (2.2) vs WarChariot (2.8), 82.3%: win
C2 Knight (3.5) vs C3 Knight (1.2), 92.7%: win!
C2 Knight (2.8) vs C3 Knight (1.1), 91.1%: win!
C2 Knight (2.7) vs C3 Knight (1.0), 91.8%: win!


And with that battle of the cripples, his last knight is dead. We have some more redlined units, but the last archers can wait. Our total losses: 1 Knight, 2 WarElephant, 2 Crossbow, 4 Axe, 15 Catapult.


The next wave of fresh knights arrive to protect our wounded, while the rest angle to invade the north.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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Turn 172 (1120 AD)
Hazard is in full retreat, and is moving the crossbows from the western cities towards his island, deleting all the others. It looks like he's tempting Mjmd/SD to come vulturing, in which case we and our 51 knights will be very annoyed. First, it's time to to take the cities in reach this turn:
Hieraconpolis is captured with courthouse and lighthouse and 99g, and we let the slow movers and badly injured knights heal here, while all knights with 8.0 str or higher invade further.
Memphis comes with granary, forge and courthouse and 148g.

It's also time to rename the eastern captives:
Alexandria becomes Lake of Ill Omen
Pi-Ramesses becomes Warslik's Woods
Lisht becomes Frontier Mountains
Busiris becomes Temple of Droga
Houston becomes Mines of Nurga

It's been a while since the last overview shots, so here's the north and south parts of Norrath:



Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
Reply

Turn 173 (1130 AD)
We do not have Mjmd's (who's been hanging on to SailIntoHistory for ages) luck, and lose Ocean of Tears to P&P's rudely planted island. Alhazard on the other hand continues his evacuation.


The only non-naval non-island units are the pair og pikes and CB/Mace, all heading for the galleys.
Heliopolis comes with a courthouse and 110g.
Thebes comes with granary, courthouse, forge and market, and 138g.

With the capture gold we want to turn on research for DivineRight in 3 turns, building the Minaret in Firiona Vie. The bad news is that Plemo is really starting to run away, and got Rifling this turn so we might need Gunpowder first. We also try to align with the other two relevant powers against the runaway


Botson is Gav's GKC-capture being eaten by P&P's culture, and CptMorgan is Mjmd's frontline city. I think they will get the message.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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Turn 173 (1130 AD) Part II
A special bonus report to show you the maneuvering over the next few turns:


Green is how our knights moved this turn, and yellow is the plan for next turn where we expect to grab 5 cities. With Giza and Asyut captured we should just be able to get some knights onto the junglehill to take out Avaris and Pithom the following turn, and then settle the free spot (with an unclaimed crabs) in the west on T176.

The other reason for the double-report is that I forgot to show the sharkfin:

Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
Reply

We might have a small turnsplit issue.


Last turn, we played first, doing the combat moves, and logged out to discuss going forward. While we did that, Plemo logged in and captured one city from Alhazard, on the other side of the strait. Then we played the majority of our turn, including logging back in a few times for screenshots, before Plemo played the majority of their turn, taking another city from Alhazard.

Now this is the key point; the second city they took is part of what we consider our share of the kill, and would like to attack and take back that city. We would also not want to give him an opportunity to move reinforcements in, so I think we are allowed to take the first half of the turn timer here.

Feedback is welcome.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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Turn 174 (1140 AD)
After a long discussion we decided on the coward's way. While we could easily kill the initial rifle, we would be hard pressed to hold if they start sending more rifles. This isn't so much about the city of Abydos itself (which is pretty shitty), but the strategic value of having a foothold in our rear. There's also the issue of him having free specialists powered by Sistine Chapel, but we should be able to keep first ring culture here. I think I'm mainly just mad that Alhazard is unsportingly giving away free cities to the civ that enabled him to fight back.

Mjmd mirrored back our diplo, while Gavagai offered a sheep, which I take as he'll tag along on whatever happens. Despite offering friendship in diplo, Mjmd insists on dumping EP on us for research vision.

Alhazard moved the rest of his landunits onto boats as expected, giving us free reign to capture.
Edfu is taken by an axe for 149g, granary, courthouse and forge.
Asyut yields 80g, granary, lighthouse, courthouse and forge.
Elephantine yields 96g, granary, lighthouse, courthouse and forge.
Giza yields 82g, granary and courthouse.

Edit: Added screenshot of the ravaged lands.

Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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Turn 175 (1150 AD) State of the Realm V
We capture Alhazard's last two cities in the west. Avaris comes with 122g, granary, lighthouse and forge while Pithom has 124g, granary and forge. Sebilis is resettled on the ruins of Akhetaten, and a settler will settle for the west-tip crabs next turn. I've renamed all the captured cities (based on the continent of Kunark) for the T175 report since they are in no threat of being retaken.

State of the Realms
We had a turn or two where war weariness and whip anger gave som unhappy citizens in the largest cities, but claiming the gold cured that. Some of the cities were whipped rather raw and will take some time to regrow, but it's mainly been coast that we're not working, so the economy is already recovering, with gold at +211 vs -316 (and 74 base beakers).


The last of the captured cities comes out of revolt in 4, and Firiona Vie is birthing a new GreatPerson in 7 (can be sped up to 6), so we're looking to start the next golden age around then. We hope to use the next 25 turns to grow, but we're not so sure that P&P will leave us alone to do that.

Northern Corelands
This area is most of what was naturally available for us to settle without using force against a neighbor. (Cities are presented in natural order, spiraling out from the capital)


Kaladim: Mediocre hybrid capital with 8 cottages and 4 mines, and not much potential to share tiles either.
Dagnor's Cauldron: Probably our best commerce city, and only city that can meaningfully share tiles with the capital.
Kedge Keep: Good commerce city, settled before we found out the hard way it was going to be our border to Alhazard, and is regrowing after some war-whips.
Ak'Anon: Strong hybrid city, and cultural stronghold against Mjmd.
(New) Steamfount Mountains: Late filler with surprisingly high production potential.
(New) Crushbone: Moai site and one of our production cities.
Kelethin: National Epic site, but currently regrowing after wartime whips instead of running specialists.
Felwithe: Potentia GlobeTheatre drafting spot.
Erud's Crossing: Decent production city and gateway to the southeast, only safe after securing Paineel.
Firiona Vie: Heroic Epic and one of our best production cities. Currently trying to grow taller.
Unrest Estate: Technically only naturally ours as nobody else wanted it; the "foodsource" is a lake and the city is a whipping post.

Southeast Wasteland
This area is what we had to fight Alhazard to claim.


Sebilis: Alhazard's former border fortress, which gave him good control over the area. Resettled this turn, so will take some time to grow back to its former glory.
Paineel: A shining star and major production hub that is food positive with 24 base hammers.
Erudin: Decent fishing village with some production and cottage capacity; was heavily whipped in the war.
The Hole: Minor production center, regrowing.
Lake of Ill Omen: Recent capture that's going to spend a long time regrowing.
Warslik's Woods: Ditto.
Frontier Mountains: Potentially good production site, but will need some time to grow.
Mines of Nurga: GKC's greedy plant and Alhazard's bounty, will be a fishing village with production capacity.
Temple of Droga: High food surplus fishing village.
Field of Bone: Fresh capture, slightly awkwardly placed. (cut off in the SW)

Southwest Ravaged Lands
The area just taken from Alhazard, still in resistance so we haven't quite decided what to do with each city yet.


Overthere: Crappy border fortress to claim some tiles and buy time (and vision) against invasion.

The World at Large


Tier IV: Dead Men Walking: MagicScience and Alhazard
Both of these have elected to go into island exile, from which they can only be banished by galleons and frigates. MagicScience keeps proving to the world at large that he needs to be eliminated, and I don't expect Alhazard to go away gently either. If anything he's better set up for the pirate life with all those ships.

Tier III: The Irrelevant: Superdeath, Ginguelito, Amica and Vanrober
Amica and Ginguelito took each other out of the running in a series of vicious wars, and are mainly surviving because the terrain on this map is weird.

Superdeath launched an invasion on Vanrober, capturing the islands early but then stalling out before Vanrober tried to counter-invade. Riding the momentum that followed from wiping that stack, Superdeath managed to burn down Vanrober's coast before getting stack-wiped in return. Net result being an uneasy peace. Superdeath might still hold illusions about being relevant in this game, but he's being left behind in both cities, development and tech.

Tier II: The Wolfpack: Mjmd, Gavagai and Us
Mjmd lost two telegraphed wonder races from what we can tell; Sankore to us and TajMahal to P&P. His land is extremely cottaged, so he's competitive on GNP, but so low on production that whipping and AP-boosted monk buildings are his main hammer source. His expansion options are a slim border with Ginguelito, as well as us and P&P.

Gavagai is still digesting and rebuilding after taking over GKC, but should still have a sizeable knight force. He also has a path of expansion into both Vanrober and Ginguelito.

We are only just now finishing up the conquest of Alhazard, and will need some time to consolidate, which I'm not too hopeful we will get.

Tier I: The Frontrunner: Plemo&Piccadilly
Coming strong from a 17-turn golden age in which they beelined rifling, their empire is well developed and grown, and have just started drafting AGG/PRO rifles. Their lead isn't insurmountable just yet, and their only avenue of expansion is either across the narrow strait into Amica, or into us.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
Reply

Turn 176 (1160 AD)
It seems I was wrong about Alhazard, Plemo took his island fortress with rifles. This has the side effect of hammering in how important it is to get Rifling on our own, and not dilly-dally with DivineRight and the Minaret just yet. We considered going Chemistry->Steel/Astronomy, but that doesn't let us defend the coast, just the oceans. Looking into Longbows vs Muskets made me realize just how few of our cities are on hills: Of the original core, it's only Kaladim, Felwithe, Erud's Crossing and Firiona Vie, with further expansion cities Hole and Overthere. Crossing and Overthere aren't coastal so doesn't matter for this discourse, and the captured cities aren't much better; Drogam Warslik and Field of Bone are the only coastal hill cities, with Veeshan's Peak, Sebilis and Cabilis being inland.

Looking back at the last war with Alhazard, there are a few decision points worth looking back at.

The first issue that comes to mind is the timing: Did we strike at the right moment? When we attacked back on T164 we still didn't have many knights ready; only 3 in the main/slow stack and 7 in a flanking move towards Akhetaten. Alhazard had just gotten Guilds himself though, and our east-west movement benefit from Engineering was about to be neutralized, so I still think we had to go in when we did. One could argue that we should have gone for Knights earlier, instead of Paper (for Sankore) and Engineering (for Citadels), but we're builders at heart.

The second issue has two parts: Was it right to lop off the eastern part first, and should we have razed instead of defending? By comitting to holding Alexandria(LoIO) and Pi-Ramesses (Warslik) we tied down our forces until the east was neutralized, which gave Alhazard several turns to whip out more knights. It's worth repeating just how frightening those 3-promo knights were, they did have odds on anything we could field. Luckily none of them took the formation promotion to really bother our knights. I don't have a clear answer to this one, but it did work out in the end so we weren't completely wrong. We felt that we had a decisive advantage in reinforcements, which made it a risk worth taking.

Lastly, could we have gotten a confrontation by invading from the north earlier? I'm pretty sure that by splitting our forces like this, he would have been able to score a decisive strike on whichever stack did not have the slowmovers with it.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
Reply

Turn 177 (1170 AD)
We open the turn to the most auspicious of events: A fish offer from Superdeath. It's hard to tell if this is a genuine offer of friendship, or an attempt to get us to underdefend Dreadlands so he can burn it. We offer fish back, and reinforce the border cities with some extra knights.

We're also struck by a culture bug around Alhazard's island fortress; Warslik and Frontier Mountains are still denied their tiles that were claimed by that city, even with all Egyptian culture eradicated.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
Reply



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