[Spoiler]PB44 Lurker Thread: Nostalgia Edition

[Hollybombay]

So what is everyones chances of winning? Gav-Alhazard-DZ/Commodore/Superdeath/Discord team-Chumchu-Regentman? In that order is my best guess.

[Mardoc]

So what is everyones chances of winning? Gav-Alhazard-DZ/Commodore/Superdeath/Discord team-Chumchu-Regentman? In that order is my best guess.

My guess is something like this:
1. Gavagai: won some small wars, hasn't fought much yet, knows how to run an economy
2. Discord team: lost a small war, depends on how much they learned from it
3. Superdeath: painfully winning a war isn't as bad when the rest of the world is also in a handbasket
4. Alhazard: hard to say where he is, but he might be about to win the war with Donovan, in which case Mids might let him catch up in tech before someone gets to knights.
5. Chumchu: He's scraped his way back to seven cities somehow! He believes in defense. Not as out of it as I once thought.
6. Commodore: losing his capital and shrine sets him back a ton. If Donovan won't keep coastal cities then Donovan can't kill him, but I don't see how he becomes relevant again.
7. Donovan: No economy means no hope. Although he's hurt his neighbors, he's not managed to help himself. No apparent plan to change the economy, no sign of being able to finish off his neighbors either.
8. Regentman: nearly dead. Although I'm tempted to rank him above Donovan, at least he's got an economy and a fighting spirit, even if he doesn't have much to work with.

Gavagai is the only one in the list I'm confident in placing, though, everyone else could be +/- 2 spots, between the spotty reporting and my own possible failures of analysis.

[Zed-F]

Alhazard probably deserves to be higher. He’s at the top of the scoreboard and is doing far better than Superdeath and very likely better than team Discord. Donovan will be edible at some point but Gavagi will be a lot tougher to deal with for team Discord.

[Charriu]

I agree with Zed-F about Alhazard. In addition to wat Zed said Alhazard also has the stronger position at the flank. I would Move Alhazard up to 2.

[Old Harry]

I read Donovan's post as 'I don't have a way of keeping the city so I burnt it' with a side order of 'it wasn't that good for me anyway' rather than the other way around. Which doesn't seem like terrible reasoning.

I wouldn't like to guess at his win chance without a bit more info, but getting a shrine he can keep on top of Regentman's land seems like a good result for him. I agree this is probably Gav's to lose now though as DZ is still surrounded. Alhazard's thread hasn't inspired me with confidence that he's going to get anywhere fighting DZ, so I don't think I'd rate him as #2. But then I'm not sure who I'd put there as I haven't been paying too much attention to the others.

[Old Harry]

Oh. He didn't keep the shrine. Oh dear.

[Zed-F]

That’s kind of what I expected when DZ invaded a third neighbor before finishing with the other two. That was definitely a ‘wreck someone else’s game without improving my own’ move if he couldn’t control himself to hold what he takes rather than over-extending. Fighting by choice on 3 fronts is over-extending practically by definition, and indicative of how DZ would continue to proceed.

[Krill]

DZ is surrounded by 3 players. Any idea that his current situation is worse now than it was on T0 is completely unfair IMO.

All he needs to do now is weather the attack from Allhazard and I reckon he makes it to the end of the game. That's a pretty decent win from that starting location.

[Zed-F]

That just speaks to my earlier point. DZ isn’t playing to win, he’s playing to not lose. Comm assumed DZ would be playing to win and therefore not start up a third front before finishing regentman or getting peace with Alhazard, which was a bad assumption.

[Krill]

I don't agree: playing to win and playing to survive are the same thing for any player starting surrounded on 3 sides. So far he has taken two players out of the game. If he can weather the storm from Allhazard he is still moving along the path of conquest: will he succeed? Unlikely, but that's the path he has to travel if he wants to win.

I don't think you are considering that for Alhazard or Regentman to win or survive, they needed DZ to die. I don't think you are fairly considering what their actions needed to be.

The invasion of Commodore probably appears to many to have been wasteful, but what can Commodore do now that he wasn't going to do in the future anyway? The shrine still exists, it can be recaptured! That's the more important long term objective rather than possibly recapturing the GLH and Henge. But the threat Commodore poses is trivial compared to the threat he presented in terms of reaching knights faster than DZ could handle.