Okay. So your explanation was that we should keep the vanilla villager alive. Which I suppose is fair enough given the role madness* set up that has become tradition.
*= http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_madness
My point is that if you did NOT want a tie, you would have asked for people to pile onto Bigger. But instead you just "happened" to change your vote to Bigger due to Commodore's nilla claim. You made no arguments for why a tie should be beneficial, but instead only made a simple argument for the Bigger vote (equivalent to your simple argument for Commodore's vote a mere 3 pages earlier).
I suppose I should have worded myself a bit differently, but ultimately if you truly believed that Bigger was the better candidate (especially if you did NOT want a tie) then why did you give only a simple explanation and leave it at that, without asking for more Bigger votes?
Ultimately this leaves me feeling that you simply wanted to get the tie created. Collaboration with Lewwyn? Possible, but not necessary. Instead, Lewwyn had, either by design or by his own meanderings, engineered the set up for a tie, and you gladly gave it to him -> with no complaints. Which makes me think that either you thought both were just as likely guilty or you did not wish to be seen as saving Commodore (which is something you could have likely been doing). Combined with the fact that the current discussion is revolving around Black wolves having a risk-taker (Zakalwe, Lewwyn, etc), I think you + Whomever the risktaker is would be more than willing to engineer a tie in the hopes of saving Commodore for at least one day.
And if Lewwyn IS innocent, then perhaps you just saw the opportunity and grabbed it. Either way, your relatively complacent "completion" of the tie looks rather suspicious to me. I overlooked it earlier because I was more suspicious of Lewwyn at the time.
Injera, he never addressed suspicions about that post previously and conveniently had a fit of rage around that time. He's faked rage before, I find it unconvincing. I also find his explanation of why he'd be better at spotting wolves as a wolf to be bizarre, MNG could have claimed a power role to defend himself and I don't see how his actions would be interpreted as power role panic. I'm not voting for him because I don't like him.
However, I think zakalwe may have just nailed Tasunke. As a watcher, Tasunke would have no good reason to watch players he finds suspicious. I don't think he explained himself very well about this in his recent post. And stating that he'd be suspecting himself if he wasn't himself doesn't do much to convince me either.
I'm incredibly disinterested in the spurious arguments accusing me. I enjoy this game a lot more when I'm wolf-hunting, so let's do that. Okay, let's look at every living players voting records to see what comes out. Days where a wolf died or a villager died and primary opposition is a known wolf, I color votes that miss the wolf in bold grey if the dead wolf is black and bold white if the dead wolf is white. I also color the votes that miss Mardoc on Day 4 in Yellow - more on that in a minute.
What is the purpose of all this? Well, I'm basing off the following assumptions/assertions.
Wolves are unlikely to bus a wolf in their own pack if avoidable given the smallness of the packs and the need to kill the other pack. The Commodore lynch on Day 3 was obviously unavoidable and hence largely meaningless for determining anything.
Wolves are much more likely to vote for a suspicious player from the opposing pack because it gains village cred.
Days where an innocent dies in a landslide you will often see wolves vote for someone else, to avoid being seen voting for an innocent. (Sareln's bizzaro defense of scooter in WW11 is a classic example.)
So with that in hand, let's parse the list a bit. Nobody has a flawless voting record. Tasunke and Injera only avoided the innocent, however and so I'm far more likely to place them in the innocent camp. Tasunke gets less credit for his MNG vote as he was a leading candidate until the end of the day.
Meiz's voting record is totally wolfish. Given his avoidance of voting Commodore twice, however, if he is a wolf he's almost certainly black.
Lewwyn, Serdoa and myself all made wrong votes on both days one and two but went with the landslides on days 3 and 4. I'll leave the reader to judge but I think it speaks more to the contrarian nature of the three players in question than their guilt.
So with that, potential white wolves alive:
Catwalk
Jkaen
Molach
novice
Potential black wolves alive:
Meiz
pindicator
Sareln
zakalwe
Hmm. I actually like those lists. pretty well. If I combine them with what I get weird vibes from I'd say I like Molach or novice from white and Sareln and zakalwe from black.
Thoughts? Oh, and to put my money where my mouth is: novice.
Oh, and before someone hits me saying that I'm assuming packs know each other again - my point is that a wolf can see suspicious behavior. If they know it isn't there's well, no problem. The Mardoc lynch is an exception, since we know the white pack set-up the kill. So when you see a non-MNG voter matched with a non-Mardoc voter, it looks like a plan being executed.
Yeah, I'm thinking you should answer my previous thoughts. Forget about the pronoun slip if you will, but my overall impression from that post still stands.
Your voting analysis gives a nice overview but I think you're a bit quick to dismiss some suspects (such as yourself) when condensing it.
Tasunke Wrote:Okay. So your explanation was that we should keep the vanilla villager alive. Which I suppose is fair enough given the role madness* set up that has become tradition.
*= http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_madness
My point is that if you did NOT want a tie, you would have asked for people to pile onto Bigger. But instead you just "happened" to change your vote to Bigger due to Commodore's nilla claim. You made no arguments for why a tie should be beneficial, but instead only made a simple argument for the Bigger vote (equivalent to your simple argument for Commodore's vote a mere 3 pages earlier).
Not all arguments have to be complex Tasunke. Sometimes the truth is simple. Saving Commodore for a day while exposing a pair of wolves don't make sense in my opinion.
I think that if there had been more time in the day I would've tried to convince someone to vote for Bigger and break the tie, but there wasn't time and Commodore would be a decent lynch too. I preferred Bigger over him for the meta-reasons of their differing claims (namely that Commodore's claim was self-lynching if it was false, while Bigger's was not).
zakalwe Wrote:Yeah, I'm thinking you should answer my previous thoughts. Forget about the pronoun slip if you will, but my overall impression from that post still stands.
Your voting analysis gives a nice overview but I think you're a bit quick to dismiss some suspects (such as yourself) when condensing it.
This is like 2 strawmen fighting each other. What "thoughts" did you bring up in your post? That I sounds like a bitter wolf? Even if I do sound like a bitter wolf, I know I'm not a wolf so why would I consider that? It is incredibly easy to make that twist - for example, one could argue your entire post is you attacking me because you're bitter I insulted the play of your black wolfpack.
And again, of course I dismiss myself - I know I'm innocent. Hell most people just leave themselves completely out of posts like this, at least I had the courage to post my own record and analyze it in the same way anyone else. So I'd like to hear the actual arguments addressed rather than this "well, that's cute but here's a pronoun slip and I feel like you're guilty" soft-pedaling, checked-out stuff.
This is why I don't usually bother with these lengthy analysis type posts. You spend a half an hour dredging up and analyzing information and all you hear is you're faking rage and used the royal we back.
Forget about the pronoun slip if you will, but my overall impression from that post still stands.
