[PB65 - Cornflakes] Rising from the Ashes

[Cornflakes]

The engineer bulbed 1170 beakers of Engineering and I was just barely able to finish it in 1 turn without building wealth. Superdeath finished Machinery last and is showing 4 turns to Guilds now (although he still needs HBR to build Cataphracts). My iron was mined this turn and thanks to a queue upgrade I completed my first pike end of turn I offered a war vs Pindicator to Superdeath with a 4 turn gold counter, and he responded back 4 turns for me and 8 for him so tentatively that looks promising like his Guilds timeline.

Pindicator now has longbows defending at his border city (and on the hill 1NE). And his Bing conquest is nearly finished already in lightning speed. Let’s hope his economy crashes after the cities come out of resistance.

Christianity spread in one of MJMD’s cities. I zoomed in on his other (first) Christian city and it looks like there is a monastery so he may be spreading and building up his own AP economy. That might make a shrine appealing if he converts his 15 cities. That will also be a large hammer sink meaning there could be a potential window for attack if a military deficit occurs. Part of the reason I’m trying to drum up hostilities against Pindicator is that I have multiple easy vectors of attack vs. MJMD while my options are more limited vs. Pindicator. If my engagement at a single border city (which picks up Sugar for me) can be the catalyst for a Superdeath + MJMD dogpile then that is a huge win. Actually it will be a huge win if I can simply direct Superdeath's cataphracts in another direction, and I'm using a carrot and stick approach. The Carrot is Bing's freshly-conquered territory without culture and vulnerable while I put pressure on Pindicator, and the stick will be my stack of pikes on his border.

   

First pike ready for action! Herd Effect has 30 production per turn so can churn out a pike every 2 turns. I'll whip the castle in Gross Profit, and then whip a couple pikes there. It will hurt whipping down the size 10 city but after all its entire purpose of existence is to be a border fortress. I'm up to 48% culture on the tile 1NE and I estimate about 5 more turns before I take control of that tile. I'm putting 54 culture on the tile compared to 26 from him so it's nearly 2:1 and he has accumulated 1508 tile culture (he has 2008 culture in his city and this tile is in his 4th ring). I should be able to gain control before he has a cataphract stack assembled.

I also had a little side action this turn:

   

Sucksatciv had 3 workers improving on his border. Since researching Machinery I've realized that I have far too few workers to windmill all my hills in a timely manner. I already built 1 more worker but this was too tempting. The three stacked together I considered trying to raze the city that's defended by just an archer but he could dry whip a spear which would completely eliminate any chance that I'd have with 4 chariots. Therefore I offered a peace treaty. There is value in peace from my perspective because I can use these workers to windmill along the border, as well as avoid any potential danger while I'm engaging with Pindicator in a few turns.

   

Current military (before ending turn since the pike isn't included). I've regained top power rank, having overtaken Pindicator again. I'm paying 50 gpt in unit maintenance 

   

MJMD in a golden age but I still have nearly a 20% lead in production. On the other hand I'm behind in food (but also working 15 specialists). Pindicator's land area is about to shoot up but that land is [hopefully] poisoned. My GNP is incredibly inflated with culture and 20 gpt from Pindicator. Top GNP this turn is Superdeath but I'm pretty sure that is funded with wealth and will crash when he starts whipping Cataphracts in a few turns. The real threat to out-pace in tech is MJMD. After saving gold for a while on HBR he just blasted through Aesthetics > Polytheism > Literature > Drama > Music back-to-back 1 turning each of them. And his current savings rate is 230 gpt  compared to my 5 gpt (after subtracting Pindi's "gift"). Given his detour to Music I'm still ahead in real military beakers. I'm definitely ahead Machinery + Engineering and don't think MJMD has Feudalism yet so he should be about 15 turns from Knights still unless he accelerates that with Wealth. I'm targeting Knights in about that same timeframe and I will make sure to have enough pikes to deter MJMD (who also has the "carrot" of Bing's territory dangling in the west).

I'm really hoping for the following sequence to play out:

• Pindicator conquers Bing [completed]
  
• Superdeath takes Bing's territory from Pindicator [in joint war with me in a few turns]
  
• MJMD takes Bing's territory from Superdeath [in joint war with me applying pressure on Superdeath to get MJMD to act]
  
• I strike a kill shot at MJMD to force a concession, with Pindicator and Superdeath having previously been neutralized.
  

[Cornflakes]

Sucksatciv has now missed 2 turns so here's a little update on the foreign affairs/diplo:

• Superdeath and I have exchanged several "war vs. Pindicator" countdowns since I signed that peace treaty. Superdeath has pushed the timeframe back a couple times from about 2 turns after my peace treaty expires, to 4 turns, and the latest as of last turn is now 6 turns after (i.e. 2 turns for me, 8 turns for him in his latest deal). He just finished Guilds and still needs HBR so that timeframe makes sense from him, although I'm extremely warry and always expecting a backstab thus the intended buildup of pikes.
  
• I have also been exchanging countdowns with MJMD which he has been mirroring back. This turn MJMD just built a road on a key hill tile that gives him a vector of attack against Money, the gold/stone city that caused our scuffle way back in the beginning of the game. The timing is ... interesting, considering the imminent peace expiration with Pindicator. He also just researched HBR. MJMD also refused to even counter offer when I sent a open borders + gpt from me.
  
• Last turn I offered Pindicator the following: He declares war on MJMD in exchange for me giving clam + sheep (the two resources in his border city BFC). Pindicator has accumulated quite a large mix stack of longbows/catapults/war elephants/axes/spears which will be tough to crack. With my primary goal being to incite international conflict rather than territorial gain I figured that maybe I could achieve this by strong-arming Pindicator into initiating the war declaration vs. MJMD. Pindicator's response back was war vs. MJMD with an 8 gold counter ... is it a coincidence that the timing matches Superdeath's latest offer? At the very least it caused me to step back and ponder the above string of communications in more depth. 
  
• It's possible that Pindicator could be trying to drum up a dogpile on me in exactly the same manner that I attempted to get him to declare on MJMD this turn. If Pindi could get me to commit to war with MJMD in the timeframe that Supderdeath can assemble his Cataphract stack, that would leave my backlines exposed to Superdeath and would accomplish the same thing that I'm currently trying to do against Pindi.
  
• Conclusion: I am always warry of attack from Superdeath. I'm now more cognizant of danger from MJMD if I over-commit to the Pindicator front. Losing Money would be a disaster since the Gold is worth 2 happiness in addition to its 30 hpt output. I'm going to exercise caution and leave at least 2 more pikes and 2 macemen garrisoned. I'm still going to initiate a skirmish with Pindicator to attempt triggering of global hostilities and military buildup, but it seems like 8 turns is the critical timeframe when the real fireworks will go off, if at all.
  

[Cornflakes]

Pindicator offered Open Borders and mutual War vs. MJMD (in 3). I declined because I have been organizing a surprise strike against Pindicator:

   

My scouting chariot identified a soft-spot in Pindicator's western front with Superdeath. I staged 6 chariots where they would be out of sight but in range thanks to Engineering roads. 6 chariots vs. a single archer! ... But after considering the offers from Pindicator and a good look at the graphs and demographics I changed my mind and did not attack for the following reasons:

1) My primary objective is to get Superdeath to send his Cataphracts at [not me]. If I raze Gloomhaven does that make Superdeath more or less likely to attack? Gloomhaven is a target within easy reach of Supderdeath. This action would only serve to de-escalate their border.

2) Pindicator's GNP has tanked since the conquest of BING, something in the neighborhood of 10 gpt on the diplo screen. Maintenance on this map is brutal, and so far I'm the only one with courthouses. Pindicator needs at least a couple dozen turns to claw out of the hole and integrate Bing's territory. By that time I'll be into (if not finished) with my next GA and in my final "end game" civics and full war mode. The real long-term threat at this point is MJMD.

3) MJMD's is just about finished with his first MoM Golden Age. Assuming he can string together two more he has another 25 turns left of elevated GNP and production. He is churning through the tech tree at a fast clip and is chewing up my tech lead (having completed Feudalism this turn he could have Guilds in probably 7-8 turns if he heads straight there, although currently showing Code of Laws on research visibility). His MFG has pretty much caught up to mine having spiked precipitously from 160 at the start of his GA to 215 now (I think I'm somewhere around 225). Right now MJMD's power graph is on the level of Superdeath and Sucksatciv ... i.e. pretty non-existent. He just research HBR a couple turns ago and Feudalism this turn. If I can get Pindicator to join in even nominally to force some heavy whipping of a defensive army instead of infrastructure this would be ideal, especially if it throws off his GPP plan for stringing the GA's together.

Therefore I made the following physical and diplomatic maneuvers this turn:
- re-offered Open Borders to Pindicator
- Moved my attack stack completely out of range of Pindicator's border, and into a position to move into MJMD's territory next turn
- Moved all 6 chariots onto the border with Pindicator where he can see them. Then sent him the following: Gloomhaven + (6 gold) + horses, for my fish. Intending to draw his attention to the fact that I could have struck Gloomhaven with those 6 chariots this turn, but didn't.
- Sent Superdeath a mutual War vs. Pindicator with (4 gold) counter to match what I think is his latest timing. Trying to reinforce that action. When Superdeath attacks I can declare a nominal war on Pindicator.
- Continued building up my Pike defensive forces along Superdeth's border. I think I'm up to 7 fortified in the border city with another 5 completed. I'm planning to build another 10 pikes which I'll stage in a position that can reach either of my other two cities over there in case Superdeath tries to attack via Sucksatciv's roads. I'll have at least 1 turn of warning thanks to my cultural dominance which will allow me to get my pike stack into whichever city he threatens. I also claimed control over the tile 1NE of my border fortress

   

   

Oh, and I almost forgot this detail:

   

1100 gold will finance approximately 1100*1.2*1.2 = 1600 beakers roughly. This will get me through Feudalism > Guilds over the next 6 turns. I feel like we are approaching the point in PB50 (the ultra-small-map game) where I made the decision to strike Scooter and make the final push for military domination. Depending on how things shake out with Pindicator, MJMD, and Supderdeath over the next 5-10 turns I think after Guilds it might be all military until the end of the game. Strike opponents from strongest to weakest. If I/we can force MJMD to whip down and delay his military tech, and Supedeath gets successfully diverted elsewhere it will pretty much be game over less the mop-up.

[Tarkeel]

I just wanted to thank you for the detailed reporting of your decisions; this is the kind of meat I love to read.

[Cornflakes]

I declared war and moved my stack into MJMD's territory and kicked off this phase of hostilities. He had a half dozen catapults and 10 axes in range to stuff in the city so I won't be able to capture with my current forces unfortunately. Hopefully Pindicator will join in, although his stack currently is several turns from any type of action. MJMD turned on tech for Machinery and will complete end of this turn with I think close to 0 gold remaining in his treasury afterwards (dropped from 500g to around 250g last turn). His savings rate was 300 gpt so he can probably have Guilds or Engineering in about 6 turns.

   

Pindi doesn't really have a tense border with MJMD except up in Bing's former territory. Last turn MJMD had a single axe in Outside Track. I had one chariot which couldn't reach the city, but was able to capture a worker. I logged in last night after MJMD played and saw that he killed my chariot with his axe and moved 2 chariots in to defend the city ... but I now have 6 chariots in range won't get much capture gold unfortunately, but there are a couple villages/hamlet for me to pillage if I get good rolls from the first couple chariots and have a few left over. Hopefully this will cause MJMD to be more cautious and whip his backlines cities. I assume he has forges now which make Impi whips inefficient.

   

Here's a look at the EvilPlot™ that I've been mulling over for the last 50 turns:
- Move a settler plus "defensive" stack of crossbows/longbows/pikes onto RED STAR
- Settle city, which builds a road on that tile
- Promote CB/LB to Guerilla 2 and advance along ORANGE path
- Move stack of Camel Archers along PINK path, using new city road

The one puzzle piece I haven't quite worked out is how to reasonably pillage to BLUE X road which currently leaves the Camel Archers exposed to the catapult stack in Grey Funnel Line. Options I've considered are (1) advancing 2 G2 units 1 tile on the same turn that I advance the settler + "defensive" stack. (2) splitting my LB/CB stack with half on the BLUE X and half towards MJMD's capital. (3) smashing Grey Funnel Line simultaneously. (4) moving my stack onto the flatland banana 1SW on the same turn I advance onto RED, threatening Pump Shanty, and inviting MJMD to burn his catapults and wipe my stack on his turn before I advance on his capital.

If the tile 1N of my stack wasn't a mountain I'd just move my stack there with a couple G2 units, but alas that is not an option

[Cornflakes]

The battle of Outside Track ...

   

   

... was a slaughter Both chariots won their 50/50! Total XP earned towards the next GG: 8! Total gold pillaged: 77 (22 from city). I've considered may times disbanding these chariots since I've been paying high unit maintenance, but they are at least paying their own support costs

[Cornflakes]

Opened the turn to this ...

   

Something must be up, in order for MJMD to suddenly offer a city for peace! On the scoreboard he's down to 13 cities (was 14 after my raze)! This actually wasn't what I opened the turn to, it was a straight "peace for Pump Shanty" offer which I accidentally closed while panning around the minimap and looking through the available advisors. I considered this offer for a minute, but for one thing it has only a first ring banana, will be swamped by Pindicator and MJMD culture, and is completely indefensible from Pindi immediately and MJMD after the peace treaty. Plus I'm not going to betray Pindicator on the turn that he entered the war. Plus my objective is to disrupt MJMD's MoM-GA, and secondary objective now that Pindicator has committed is to tie down Pindi's army and create an opening for Superdeath's Cataphracts. If I take peace, then Pindi peaces out, and MJMD can GA-away-in-peace ... all for an indefensible city that will only add to maintenance costs.

   

MJMD is only keeping up in demos and catching up in tech right now thanks to his extended GA, once that expires he will revert back to reality. Pindicator is behind Machinery + Engineering + Guilds + Civil Service and making just 12 gpt. If I can keep Pindi engaged for 10 turns of grinding instead of infrastructure, and force MJMD to whip heavily in his GA then I pretty much win. I finished Guilds this turn with nearly a full turn of overflow into Banking, which I can complete in 4 turns at 0% slider. My 1st GP for Golden Age will be born next turn, and the 2nd will be in about 5 turns. I'll take the civics swap into Representation/Bureaucracy/Serfdom/Mercantilism/Organized Religion, getting 60 beakers from free Rep/Merc specialists and using OrgRel to build banks and Spiral Minaret. From there I probably target Rifling since I'll pick up 15 gpt at Printing Press and 20-30 hpt on all my windmills at Replaceable Parts, plus sealing my security vs. Cataphracts/knights. My economy will be dominant, territory size already matches world-best Pindicator thanks to culture and having squeezed extra out of SAC and Superdeath. Therefore take the safe route of securing myself with Rifles, then pick up Steel and blow up the world If I can get a unit to 10XP in the skirmishing vs. MJMD then I'll slip in Literature along the way for Heroic Epic. Actually I'm planning to build a GG medic anyway with my first GG that I've had on ice, might as well pull the trigger on that now that I have Camel Archers coming online.

Down in Superdeath's territory ...

   

My axe that has been keeping an eye on Superdeath's Cataphract [non]buildup encountered an MJMD chariot. It was a kill-or-be-killed situation, but I ended up with another 3 XP I still haven't spotted any Cataphracts despite SD having Guilds + HBR for several turns He's showing Engineering in 3 so maybe he's building wealthstill? I would have though it would be better to slow-research Engineering while building up the stack, then they would both finish about the same timeframe in 10 turns. As-is I have about 10 turns to make further preparations on this front, which at this point means I'll have a stack of Camel Archers as well. I'll probably try war/peacing him once his stack starts reaching critical mass which should give me time to get Rifling.

[Cornflakes]

MJMD abandoned Grey Funnel Line entirely (not leaving a single defender). I couldn’t see those forces but they must have withdrawn westwards due to pressure from Pindicator. He also pulled most of the defenders out of his easternmost city Pescadores. In response I upped the pressure in the east, advancing a half dozen units and a worker into view there. If we can keep MJMD split east and west I might be able to launch a small stack up the middle at his capital. In fact I can get 5 Camel Archers, 3 HA, and 2 chariots into a staging position next turn, and advance into his territory the following turn. That’s not a lot but it might be enough … his Impi UU will probably save the day though since he will get Engineering juuuuuust in the nick of time on the turn before I move in, unless whips over the next two turns slow him down.

Speaking of whips, I 2-whipped a Camel Archer this turn, and despite whipping off 2 colossus coasts (6 total commerce) my income increased + 2! How is that even possible? I gues that just goes to show how high maintenance costs are on this map. It was one of my few cities without a courthouse. Pindicator has just started building courthouses, his EP inched up starting 3-4 turns ago.

Still no Cataphracts seen from Superdeath

[Cornflakes]

We have received reports of our first Cataphract sighting  one fresh in the Byzantine capital, and one headed northeast. Let’s see how quickly he can assemble his stack now that he has actually started the buildup.

MJMD offered his other border city to me for peace, the one on his far east near Sucksatciv. That city also doesn’t have any first ring food, nor any green tiles whatsoever. It would actually be in starvation immediately it is only size 4 so doesn’t contribute much to MJMD and would be a complete drain on me without any value (remember how each of my two recent filler cities cost more than 10 gpt in net maintenance, I think closer to -14.

I imagine he’s also offering border cities to Pindicator now trying to get one of use to peace out so he can focus everything on one front. Even if Pindicator peace’s out I would much rather keep MJMD on his toes and building military during the remaining GA turns I have at least 3 turns of warning due to my comfortable culture borders. Even in the worst case if Pindicator peaces out and then they both double team me that should be a fine outcome. Maces and knights vs. longbows, axes, and HA should be a slaughter on defense. And it’s not like they can beat a hasty retreat after wading 3 turns deep in my culture.

GA probably in 4 if the GPP rolls the 75% non-prophet (just birthed the 90% prophet). If I get the 2nd prophet then I shrine for 25 bast gpt, already working on the market, and can quickly whip in the bank + grocer for +100% … as we already found out that I probably actually lose money on the 4 colossus coasts that I’m working so the multiplier buildings if I get the prophet. My follow-up GP is 10 turns from now (6 turns later) as a backup and will also be around 75% non-prophet.

[Cornflakes]

I spent 75 gold to get EP vision on nearly all of MJMD’s cities. It didn’t activate at the end of my turn so I expect it at the start of my next turn. I have my two workers in place to road for my Camel Archer/HA/Chariot lightning force. I’ll scan MJMD’s troop deployment and then make the decision to pull the trigger on the capital strike.