[SPOILERS]PB46: (In Search of) Fine Foreign Dining, by Hannibal of England

[Krill]

Sucks being off work with D&V, even when it's cleared up I have to wait 48 hours to go back. Not like I have much else to do but watch Netflix and spam this thread in the day. I don't see this snake pick finishing before Monday, but that doesn't matter: when sign ups opened, the plan was to start week commencing 30/9/19 so we are on schedule.

Update after Rusten got India:

Old Harry + Hitru _____________ of Inca
Commodore _____________ of Mongolia
Borsche _____________ of Persia
GeneralKillCavalry _____________ of Aztecs
Krill _____________ of England
TBW _____________ of Rome
2MetraNinja _____________ of Ethiopia
Elkad _____________ of Native America
Pindicator Pacal of _____________
Gavagai _____________ of Germany
Rusten _____________ of India
BeardBeard _____________ of _____________ UP!
BaII _____________ of _____________ ON DECK!
superdeath _____________ of _____________
Adler _____________ of _____________
Dark Savant _____________ of _____________

There are 8 civs left to be picked, and the first leader to go is Pacal? Given that there are only 4 leaders left to be picked after I choose, then let's try to see what other civs are likely to be picked?

The standout, always worth picking civs remaining are IMO Zulu (Not AGG), Vikings (ORG?) Sumeria (anything), and India (Anything) (4). Carthage (Anything), Portugal (Anything), HRE (ORG?), all seem sound as well (7). Then there are America (AGG), Germany (IND), Babylon (double grain, Mining>BW start with a late game leader) and Greece (CHM) (11) that players at the bottom of the pick might just take for perfect synergy if things line up. At least three of those can't be picked, but some players will pick outside these. As most of these are open on what they are paired with...well, we could be seeing anything really. But I'm not seeing anything that screams "Hannibal" other than Elkad with Native America.

I am expecting Boudicca and Ragnar to go though. Boudicca works with over half the civs in this game, because nothing really synergises perfectly with her. Ragnar will possibly go with the expected America pick, or be picked first and then paired with Byz pick if a later pick takes America, worst case I fully expect TBW to take Ragnar to pair with Rome. Then I think an IND leader will go with Germany (or maybe one of the bottom four players will pick an IND leader and then go with either Germany or Mali (both have Mining start, but if they don't need Hunting T0 they might not be the bothered by the UU).

I expect 2MetraNinja to pick PHI, and try for a T60-ish Currency bulb. He could easily push out a GS for an Academy behind that because he only has to get to Maths and he can't crash his economy that fast, and then use PHI and 3 spec slots to push out a 300 point GS/GM for a golden age in 14 turns. If he picks PHI we aren't competing for leaders so I wouldn't care, and he would just pick the second trait to speed up his start: so Peter (EXP/PHI), Sulieman (IMP/PHI) or Sitting Bull (PRO/PHI) maybe? I'd go Peter myself.

Pindicator has no Market or Bank UB to choose from, so...Arabia? Or does he just grab Sumeria, or take a tilt at Korea (Agri/Mining) or Russia (Hunting/Mining) if he doesn't see any other choice? That seems smart, her is far enough down that Pacal may have fallen but if he wants either Korea or Russia, no one picks those for synergy so he should be safe.

Elkad is impossible to read. He never posts much so I don't actually know the guy that well, but Native America are just anti-CRE, and don't really pair with AGG. He can just take anything he wants, maybe he is pushed a little away from IND though if he doesn't want to contest Henge. CHM, PRO, ORG, FIN, IMP, PHI, SPI, it doesn't matter, he could just pick whatever he wants in reaction to what the other half of the players pick.

The big thing is I only see Inca, Aztecs and the suspected India and HRE picks as starting with Myst. This might push those players (Goddamnit it's OH and Hitru again) to have a tilt at a shrine and pick a quicker starting leader.

Leader-wise, I can see Elkad taking Hannibal, Boudicca and Ragnar falling, which leaves us De Gaulle, Darius and Huayna; and Mansa as a shitty back up that I don't want to pick. Darius might fall if someone picks Babylon or India. De Gaulle shouldn't fall, he was last picked in PB21 (by you Joey?!), randomly in PB18 and in PBs 4, 8, and 11, none of which really count), but some weirdo might pair him with Greece and do something stupid (only it wouldn't be stupid).

We might need to go back to the drawing board for leaders if this goes wrong.

Update: Rusten will not pick CHM now IMO, but Gav has opted into the IND choice. Might he pick De Gaulle? I doubt it. Probably picks Augustus, if he does he is likely aiming Oracle>Collosus and I would not want to compete with Gav in that situation.

[Krill]

Beardbeard will pick Mehmed unless someone else picks Vikings or Sumeria, or possibly Carthage now and steals it from him. I reckon his fallback is...ORG/AGG, even though that's obscene. PRO/ORG doesn't exist, IMP/ORG doesn't fit his madness. CHM/ORG, Napoleon is an outside chance?

Actually, Mehmed of Carthage seems pretty baller.

[Krill]

Called it. BaII timed that we'll.

Once Adler has picked I'm going to go through the reverse pick order.

I'm really liking superdeaths pick choice though. America on the return unless Dark Savant or Adler say FU and goes Ragnar/Tokugawa of America for the lulz, but Greece is the safe fallback. Dark Savant has a lot of control now.

[Krill]

That's it, got Adlers pick.

Old Harry + Hitru _____________ of Inca
Commodore _____________ of Mongolia
Borsche _____________ of Persia
GeneralKillCavalry _____________ of Aztecs
Krill _____________ of England
TBW _____________ of Rome
2MetraNinja _____________ of Ethiopia
Elkad _____________ of Native America
Pindicator: Pacal [EXP/FIN] of _____________
Gavagai: _____________ of Germany
Rusten: _____________ of India
BeardBeard: _____________ of HRE ON DECK - Leader!!
BaII: Mehmed [EXP/ORG] of _____________
superdeath: Boudicca [AGG/CHM] of _____________
Adler: Julius Caesar [IMP/ORG] of _____________ ON DECK - CIV!!
Dark Savant: _____________ of _____________ UP!

Expected picks for remaining civs:

DS: Tokugawa of America/Byz (probably America)
Adler: Sumeria or Vikings
Superdeath: IF DS picks America, THEN Greece, otherwise America. Outside chance of Babylon if he has a double grain, high hammer output start.
BAII: IF Adler picks Sumeria, THEN Vikings, otherwise Sumeria.
Pindicator: Carthage/Korea/Russia, dependent on start resources and location. Outside chance of Babylon if he has a double grain, high hammer output start (none of those civs cover what Babylon provides).


Expected picks for remaining leaders:

BeardBeard: (He got shafted) Hammurabi [AGG/ORG] or Napoleon [CHM/ORG], outside shot at Roosevelt [IND/ORG]
Rusten: Anything not CHM (that's the point of India, Babylon and Inca, so you can't figure out their picks and he reacts to the other choices).
Gavagai: Bismark [EXP/IND] or De Gaulle [CHM/IND] are teh standard picks. Potential for Stalin [AGG/IND] if he has figured out the path through MC to managing expansion. I think he picks Stalin.
Elkad: No read. Wang Kon [PRO/FIN] would be my best guess if Tokugawa of America and Boudicca of Greece, and Stalin or Germany exist though, runner up would be Churchill [PRO/CHM]. Elkad gets run over in most games and doesn't have defensive mindset per se, but he will be thinking about it (and the new Xbows).
2MetraNinja: Peter [EXP/PHI]. Sitting Bull as outside shot [PRO/PHI], Alex [AGG/PHI] as a "Why not" choice.
TBW: Ragnar [FIN/AGG], no question, unless Rusten picked it, in which case...Shaka [AGG/EXP]
Krill: I might have a shot at Hannibal [CHM/FIN] after all??

[Krill]

Actually, Rusten takes the vets position of highly valuing SPI, and with India he could take that and just role with whatever secondary trait he feels he needs. Asoka, Mansa, hell, he might even pick Gandhi, wouldn't that let him break people in the mid game.

[Krill]

The world has gone mad.

Merovech, the point I was trying to get to it by defining horizontal expansion and vertical growth the way I did earlier is pretty much why I don't know how BeardBeard thinks that is a good pick. Should have gone with Sumeria, unless he is going to rush for a religion and try for a shrine.

[Merovech]

The world has gone mad.

Merovech, the point I was trying to get to it by defining horizontal expansion and vertical growth the way I did earlier is pretty much why I don't know how BeardBeard thinks that is a good pick. Should have gone with Sumeria, unless he is going to rush for a religion and try for a shrine.

I agree with your assessment here that Sumeria would be better.  IMO, for his situation, it's not just that ziggaruats come earlier than rauthuses, it's that they help get to the very important currency, as opposed to coming post-currency or as a detour.

[GermanJoey]

I'm surprised Gav didn't pick Augustus... he seems like he would work very well with Germany, as a way to start strong with Imp and stay strong through cheap Werkstatt. The compounded city maintenance reductions plus a strong base would allow him to delay courthouses in favor of pouring tons of hammers into early wonders. Stalin has some amazing potential but will be very slow.

Pindicator's Exp/Fin combo reminds me of my ToW attempt at Victoria, what with all of the gold multipliers. It wasn't as strong as I had hoped. That said, he'll have a pretty damn good time if he gets Carthage. The Ottomans are still in the pool too. BaII could grab either of those two, or Sumeria.

I'm pretty shocked that the Vikings and Carthage are still unpicked.

At any rate, I think that at this point, we can be pretty sure we'll get at least a half-decent Fin leader.

[GermanJoey]

What's your preferred Fin pick-order? Hannibal > Ragnar > Wang Kong > Darius > Mansa Musa?

[Krill]

Truth be told I'm really struggling to see beyond Hannibal and that second worker whip > granary, because of the position it pursue in for the next 40 turns. That's not to say I'm discounting an earlier settler, just that the early granary plan feels that strong. If we see a wet corn and grass copper city, I'm not complaining though.