[SPOILERS] Small Wunders and Izzy of Inca: The fat lady sings

[WilliamLP]

Not much to say this turn. Capital with expanded borders:




The hills to the W are a very nice sentry net.

The scouting warrior found moar marble. I'm still not ruling out chopping Oracle someday in my mind... we do have the prereq tech already that nobody else will want, after all.

Retep's power graph is completely flat, meaning he's probably building a settler off only 1 warrior. I don't think we can really do anything to punish that though.

[WilliamLP]

There are some brilliant city sites near the scouting warrior. He also sees coast. Strategically, it would be really nice to know what's past the fog to the NE, whether it is just a peninsula (which would be great!) or a big land bridge with another player over there (not great). Stupid bear.

The next 5-10 turns of micro need to be worked out after the settler finishes. I'll spend some time working out options today. I'm thinking quechua and grow to size 4, then another worker. The worker first wouldn't really have anything to do until Bronze finishes for chops. We could mine a river plains hill but with our high happy cap we don't really want to be working those much.

I don't really think we are desperate for archers right now, until we see signs that Retep could produce an axe before us.

[MindyMcCready]

I'm still not ruling out chopping Oracle someday in my mind...

Not ruling it out either,...but still a little early to discuss.

The next 5-10 turns of micro need to be worked out after the settler finishes. I'll spend some time working out options today.

I think that we need to discuss city #3 ambitions to properly have that conversation. A production city 3W of capital will have less worker needs than a risky stretch over to the SE plains.

I don't really think we are desperate for archers right now, until we see signs that Retep could produce an axe before us.

Capital with its culture rings + hill + culture defense is pretty safe. FAB city should be whippable 4T after founding which looks like the same turn that we land BW. So 5T after founding and we're safe from opportunism which is all that matters at this point.

So this is opening up some opportunity for some risk taking.

Retep's power graph is completely flat, meaning he's probably building a settler off only 1 warrior. I don't think we can really do anything to punish that though.

I must admit that I'm a little disappointed about this. He's switched to settler at size2 then.

I'll try to figure out when he'll be done with his settler at that point so we can see if we can disrupt him some.

[WilliamLP]

I think that we need to discuss city #3 ambitions to properly have that conversation. A production city 3W of capital will have less worker needs than a risky stretch over to the SE plains.

Yeah. That city site won't go away soon though. I'm crazy enough to be thinking of city #3 where the warrior stands (or 1S of it) and city #4 on that plains site on the river. (5S3E of capital). Yeah it's audacious but it's also the best land we see. All of has to be informed by where copper shows up of course.

I must admit that I'm a little disappointed about this. He's switched to settler at size2 then.

It does seem like it. I like it though, since in the long run it's probably an economically weaker move to build the settler at size 2. FWIW, Bacchus is also at size 2 right now. We don't see his graphs yet but he's the rival for population in the F8 screen.

[MindyMcCready]

Yeah. That city site won't go away soon though. I'm crazy enough to be thinking of city #3 where the warrior stands (or 1S of it) and city #4 on that plains site on the river. (5S3E of capital). Yeah it's audacious but it's also the best land we see. All of has to be informed by where copper shows up of course.

That's nucking futs! Yeah,...it'll take a while to hash this out.

[MindyMcCready]

Yes, the gold-corn-marble or gold-corn-cows-marble sites are amazingly strong but we can't defend it. We have to assume that Retep is going to want to take a crack at us. It wouldn't be hard to imagine that he could plant East of our #2 city and cut off our mountain passage. We'd be facing off against Retep and against anyone who is to the East or to the South eliminating our nice "in-the-corner" positioning. Timing-wise we'd have no ability to respond even if we can see the power buildups. Its just too far.

Then there's the massive worker needs. The travel time of 6T is an improvement or two and/or 2 forest chops. Those forest chops could take you a fair way to your #4 city.

If you were to switch your #3 to that plains 5S3E we could probably talk about that more realistically. Its a medium strong city with its 3 floodplains plus it has marble in the second ring. But we're bypassing stronger sites like the fishing sites and the silver-cows-wetwheat sites.

Better to work slowly towards it and have a couple of chariots on to punish those other audacious settlers.

[WilliamLP]

Yes, the gold-corn-marble or gold-corn-cows-marble sites are amazingly strong but we can't defend it.

Are you sure? Two archers on a hill are a hard thing to take down pre-construction. On a food-rich site that can whip more without notice? I think it's a lot easier to plant that city than it would be for someone else to take it from us.

I find it really, really unlikely that Retep would settle east past us. If he did it would be easy pickings since we have an economic lead and we're naturally further east than he is anyway. He might very well beat us to those sites west of us, of course.

Where I'm coming from is that essentially this is our golden age, metaphorically speaking. We'll never be in as relatively strong a position to claim land as in this part of the game, with close to a perfect start and 2-3 turns ahead of most other teams in this game, and winning the lottery on free archery.

If we're going to discuss in good faith, the opportunity cost of chops is 4 worker turns, improvements are 4-6. And we're going to want roads along that way by the time it becomes relevant, regardless. As well as quite a number of workers.

[WilliamLP]

Not much going on this turn:




Retep got a tech a couple of turns ago, but it wasn't a power tech, so no wheel yet. My guess is that he researched Agriculture, and the hut at the beginning of the game gave him either Fishing or Myst for free.




He does appear to be building a settler at size 2. He's doing it slower than we are though. All the area inside the curve difference is advantage to us. Our hammer outputs are actually exactly the same.

I wouldn't be surprised if Retep starts to hate the mapmaker after seeing our graphs for the first time.

The settler finishes EOT, and then I think the micro for the next 7 turns kind of writes itself. We build a 3rd quechua which takes 3 turns, and we also grow to size 4 in 3 turns.

At size 4, the capital gives up the corn, but builds a worker. And amazingly in its size 4 configuration the capital can get 9 hammers, and that's a break-point for Exp to give 3 bonus hammers! So we can 4-turn a worker (it would be 3 turns with the corn). I really love this capital!

Further, the second worker finishes exactly when Bronze does, on turn 36. So by fluke it all just kind of lines up.

After that we probably want to chop / whip out another settler, while the second city slow-builds a bit of military during growth.

[MindyMcCready]

Are you sure? Two archers on a hill are a hard thing to take down pre-construction. On a food-rich site that can whip more without notice?

1. How many archers are we going to commit to that city and how soon? Its true that taking down that city requires some effort, but with chops + whips it wouldn't be that hard. 2 axes per archer would take that city almost every time. Even with full fortify and 20% culture a C1 axe gets 18% odds. The second axe pretty much cleans up. Since we can't reinforce this city we would lose it to any type of committed attack.

4 archers would hold against pretty much anything but will we be able to spare that much?

2. Retep's game is over. Our city plant is going to kill any chance that he has of winning. Once we plant he probably only exists to build military and inflict pain on someone,...most likely us. The land to his north sure isn't great so he won't be settling there. He'll probably want those flood plains south of our city + cow. If he really wanted to mess with us (and why wouldn't he after we planted towards his capital?) a city 1 north of that mountain would sever our connection to the gold-corn city. So that's definately one reason to plant a linking city first.

3. With this many players we're going to be competiting with other powers for this land. If we grab a disproportionate piece of the land we're going to have to defend it. If there's a team to our East we have a nice inverted crescent to try to defend,...that's not great. If orange showed up 2S-4W of our capital, we'd have to make some tough choice of whether to defend the capital or the gold-corn city. A blocking city 1S-5W of our capital would really help with that but its a barren foodless wonder.

4. The great unknown Red power to the south.

If we could confirm that there's no 'Team Orange' to our East then it would be a really great move for a 4th city, but that would be really surprising with 18 players in this game.

If there's no 'Team Red' but there is a 'Team Orange' then its ok so long as we control the southern mountain pass and have that reinforcing city to the East of our capital.

5. What happens when we find copper/horses somewhere offsite? Where does city #4 go? Will we forego copper/horses in order to plant the connecting city? Or, more likely, will we get the copper/horses and then settle the connecting city as city #5.

In my mind the most likely scenario is that the gold-corn is standalone until we plant city #5. This makes it much, much more likely that Retep could screw with us and isolate that city. And what good is that city with the gold and corn pillaged? A stand-alone city with just archers isn't going to be able to attack out.

I find it really, really unlikely that Retep would settle east past us.

Why wouldn't he? It's not like he's got a game to lose. If he plants 1N of that mountain he blocks us and gets access to those floodplains.

If he did it would be easy pickings,...

I'm not sure that I agree with that. A stack of troops could defend 3 cities pretty easily. We might not make easy headway. Either team could 1T so this would be a pretty volatile situation.

He might very well beat us to those sites west of us, of course.

There are some very good cities directly to our West but that dry gap should delay anyone entering there. There's probably a higher chance that we lose those Western lands to other island-hopping nations rather than Retep. If that happens we'll wish that we controlled those cities as we'll be surrounded and lose our 'in-the-corner' advantage.

Another small consideration. If Retep settles 2N of the wheat he'll invalidate any cities along that silver stretch of hills south of the river.

Where I'm coming from is that essentially this is our golden age, metaphorically speaking. We'll never be in as relatively strong a position to claim land as in this part of the game, with close to a perfect start and 2-3 turns ahead of most other teams in this game, and winning the lottery on free archery.

I agree, and your score is showing. Also, the amount of land that you're claiming is very large. Maybe it'll work out, but it could very well box in 3 other teams that we would have to defend against.

If we're going to discuss in good faith, the opportunity cost of chops is 4 worker turns, improvements are 4-6. And we're going to want roads along that way by the time it becomes relevant, regardless. As well as quite a number of workers.

Noted. Forgot about the 1T to get into the forest. I might get a little excited sometimes, but I am speaking in good faith.

So those are my points that I think that you need to consider before making this move. Its definately on the high-risk, high-reward category. Alternatively, this golden-age + UU has given us the leg up on Retep and we have the knowledge and capacity to pillage his resources, delay his #2 city and set him far enough back that he'll be a future nuisance rather than a real threat.

We're allowing him to grow into a greater threat while sending our military and resources to distant lands.

[WilliamLP]

1. How many archers are we going to commit to that city and how soon? Its true that taking down that city requires some effort, but with chops + whips it wouldn't be that hard. 2 axes per archer would take that city almost every time. Even with full fortify and 20% culture a C1 axe gets 18% odds. The second axe pretty much cleans up. Since we can't reinforce this city we would lose it to any type of committed attack.

The point that such a bold move should not made without consideration and care doesn't escape me!

If we were going for that city, I'd imagine it building most of its own defense. It does have a bunch of forests right there to be nearly immediately chopped for archers, if need be. I don't really see someone investing 2 axes per archer to take a city like that (with archer bonus on a hill) in the ancient era. It's 70 hammers to 25! In a game where we have an incredibly fast start.

Unless someone has copper in their capital (trust the mapmaker?) axes aren't going to start showing up until turn 45 or so, in the worst case.

2. Retep's game is over. Our city plant is going to kill any chance that he has of winning. Once we plant he probably only exists to build military and inflict pain on someone,...most likely us. The land to his north sure isn't great so he won't be settling there. He'll probably want those flood plains south of our city + cow. If he really wanted to mess with us (and why wouldn't he after we planted towards his capital?) a city 1 north of that mountain would sever our connection to the gold-corn city. So that's definately one reason to plant a linking city first.

Another factor is that he moved 2 turns away from a starting location judged to be fair by the mapmaker. Based on what we see around him, that direction is likely to be pretty good for him if he wants a strong second city.

I don't know if I can see him as a spiteful player. Granted, I don't know much about him. I think he'd play to try and do as well as possible, not to say "screw this" and go dedicate his game to trying to hurt us. Given, we do have to defend the silk city really well so that it isn't his best opportunity. But I guess I can't share the view that he'd make a move like creating a strung-out empire by quickly settling to the E of us. He also has to compete for land grabbing with another neighbour to his other side as well...

3. With this many players we're going to be competiting with other powers for this land. If we grab a disproportionate piece of the land we're going to have to defend it. If there's a team to our East we have a nice inverted crescent to try to defend,...that's not great. If orange showed up 2S-4W of our capital, we'd have to make some tough choice of whether to defend the capital or the gold-corn city. A blocking city 1S-5W of our capital would really help with that but its a barren foodless wonder.

Because math solves everything: There are 3674 land tiles in this game. That is 204 per person. For a really crude approximation, a circle of radius 8 would be about 201 tiles (3.14 * 8 * 8). The Pink Dot site is 7 tiles from the capital. So it should be pretty close to what the "fair" amount of land should be for us, based purely on map dimensions. So if it's disproportionate, it's only slightly disproportionate, which is arguably how much land we want. And we don't want to wind up with slightly less than than is proportionate, that is for sure. That's the philosophy of securing the border first and then backfilling later.

4. The great unknown Red power to the south.

If we could confirm that there's no 'Team Orange' to our East then it would be a really great move for a 4th city, but that would be really surprising with 18 players in this game.

If there's no 'Team Red' but there is a 'Team Orange' then its ok so long as we control the southern mountain pass and have that reinforcing city to the East of our capital.

5. What happens when we find copper/horses somewhere offsite? Where does city #4 go? Will we forego copper/horses in order to plant the connecting city? Or, more likely, will we get the copper/horses and then settle the connecting city as city #5.

Yeah, both of these things are crucial. If we see that the only copper is W of us we'd have to grab it ASAP I think, and abort this whole idea for now. Unfortunately with this build AH won't finish for a little while, being delayed by going Meditation. I can't see doing anything but going Wheel -> Pottery immediately after BW finishes on T36.

I did scout one more tile this turn:




My intent is to go SE next, to give us more info about the landform there. If that's a long east coast it would be amazing.

There are some very good cities directly to our West but that dry gap should delay anyone entering there. There's probably a higher chance that we lose those Western lands to other island-hopping nations rather than Retep. If that happens we'll wish that we controlled those cities as we'll be surrounded and lose our 'in-the-corner' advantage.

Another small consideration. If Retep settles 2N of the wheat he'll invalidate any cities along that silver stretch of hills south of the river.

Couldn't you see him trying to settle X, Y, Z here (or something similar) quickly? That land is at equal distance between us, so it seems much more likely he'd grab that than try to overlap us to his east where he's at a disadvantage by being farther away.

So those are my points that I think that you need to consider before making this move. Its definately on the high-risk, high-reward category. Alternatively, this golden-age + UU has given us the leg up on Retep and we have the knowledge and capacity to pillage his resources, delay his #2 city and set him far enough back that he'll be a future nuisance rather than a real threat.

We're allowing him to grow into a greater threat while sending our military and resources to distant lands.

Yeah, thanks for these points, it's a good discussion. My inclination is not to try and take the fight to him early if possible, just because it doesn't help our standing relative to the rest of the world. Although, a weakened rival is a major long term advantage too. And I know you've said you think blood is inevitable here. A lot is going to come down to his disposition as a gamer.