WW20: Legend of the Undercity

[pindicator]

LeChuck-

I'm not sure a mass reveal is in the town's favor. The only reason I revealed yesterday was because the situation required it. So a few questions I have. Do people think it would help?

Well, my thinking is less that it will help now but more that it will help more than tomorrow -- if that makes sense. Look at the likely situation: 5 village, 2 wolf, 1 SK. We need to hit a scum today, otherwise we're hoping for scum and/or SK to double up or hit each other in order to win. If we lynch the SK today then we're in straight LYLO. If we hit a wolf then we're in the same situation as today: where if we mislynch we still have a faint glimmer of hope but we're at the mercy of scum in a prisoner dilemma.

So I'm thinking getting the most information out would be best.

As far as my reveal, it's not going to be a smoking gun. Maybe teamed up with other reveals it could shed some more light on events, but it's not going to do any good if only I reveal. So I guess i'm not excited to reveal, but considering the state of the game I thought it was prudent to at least bring it up.

And what is your day 1 theory pindi, does it revolve around your role so you won't share until a full role reveal happens?

Holding back my day 1 theory only really helps in the sense that it could catch a wolf in a lie. But considering 1) why would a scum be dumb enough to lie needlessly? and 2) this is just a theory and not fact, so even if they choose to there's no "gotcha" moment, then I think it makes more sense to just share it.

It actually started from my suspicion that you were the SK This was a theory I had yesterday if you recall, but you'll notice I'm not spouting that today. That's because ... well, you'll just have to read it. I thought it through a little more. I wrote this earlier but saved it for the above reasons:

Something that is still bothering me....

Well, I got a response night 1 that only said "no result". Night 2, I only got one response, and it specifically said that Ichabod was "aligned with the town". That seems pretty clear to me that if Rowains ability is true, then he stole my read, and whatever Mattimeo sent my way didn't affect me.

We know Mattimeo used his ability on Brick night 1. Why would Mattimeo lie as town? I don't think he would in hindsight. So then why didn't Brick get a result in lewwyn night 2?
Shouldn't he have gotten a No Result as well as an Ichabod result if Lewwyn was unscannable? And if Lewwyn is town, shouldn't he have gotten that result?

At first I was on board with Rowain. He was positing before he was killed that Lewwyn may be SK, or maybe he didn't say it outright, but he said it was "interesting" and that's where I went with it. But I think that's a flawed version of it, because it's not looking at all the evidence.

What else do we know about night 1?

Bigger sent a message to Serdoa but it was not received
Serdoa attempted to PR zakalwe but was unable to.
Did anybody have a successful action that night?

And as I was looking at some of the roles, I saw something that made me think maybe there's a reason for that:

Tasunke, Eurabatres (Fall from Heaven 2), Scum Arsonist Mass Distractor, was killed day 2

From online digging i found a distractor immobilizes roles, so mass distractor sounds like something that would stop all night actions, probably as a one-time use. So if Tasunke used his ability N1 and i'm right about how it works then that would answer a lot of questions.

It's just a theory, but it would explain why so many night actions didn't work on that first night. Now, a part of me wants to keep running with this theory and ask "Why would Tasunke use a 1-time ability on the first night?" Answer: "Because he knew he wasn't going to live to see a second." And that's very tin-foil hat. But perhaps it's a good move in itself, just to obfuscate as many results as possible in that first night.

So that's the theory.

Also Pindi why are these "names lewwyn, serdoa, azza, and ryan" innocent but now you think one is not? I would really like to know fully.

This stems from an earlier statement I made. Actually, it was my previous post to that one:

So that puts Lewwyn, Serdoa, Ryan, and me as town. I still think Azza belongs here too.
Meiz as questionable, possible SK.
Molach & Qgqqqqq for scum

(See the post for where I talk out my reasoning for why those people are town.)

Here I'm doing what I've done most of the game: trying to find the scum by looking at who has the most town tells. But when I looked back at day 1 and realized I had Molach wrong, then obviously I was giving someone credit as town who wasn't. (Unless we have less than 3 scum left, but I doubt that.) Lewwyn & Serdoa were my strongest town reads - Lewwyn by the feign and tbh the only case I had on Lewwyn was one of SK (but I discouraged myself of that with the previous theory about Tasunke using his power - and Serdoa by how emotional he got at a moment where it didn't make sense to be emotional as scum.

Yet Ryan and Azza were people I was just giving town status based on my gut. So I re-read Ryan's day 1 and Azza's day 1, and I decided that Azza's day 1 didn't look as hot as I thought it had before. I laid those points in my last post, and I agree with the points you made as well about him going after Lewwyn at the end of the day yesterday.

So I think I had been giving Azza a free pass as town just because he was posting different than the last two games of his as scum. But I consider Azza a very capable player of changing up his game, and certainly smart enough to realize that he would have to do so if he had drawn scum for a third straight time.


@Meiz-
Why does Qgqqqqq have to be town? Because he attacked you before Tasunke was revealed? What else has he done besides that one moment?


60%

[Serdoa]

Good work Lewwyn.

As for revealing: I agree Ryan, if you think it would help, go ahead and reveal. In general I think that a mass reveal will help more than it will hurt, but of course thats hard to say without knowing the roles. I am wary though that this could lead to a meta-clusterfuck down the line. But it is in towns interest to take care of that.

As for the lynch: Lewwyn, I think we should lynch Q (or whomever you think has a higher chance to be a wolf but I think you agree on Q) first. If we have 2 wolves left we are ok with either hitting SK or wolf, but if we have 3 wolves left, we have an issue. I have a hard time seeing 6 scum (thats 28% of the players) but with 2 factions it still might be. I certainly would like not to take chances. If we do have 3 wolves we are at 4-3-1 right now. Lynching SK makes that 4-3 and nightkill makes it 3-3 -> wolves win. I think Meiz is the SK, but it might not be in our village best interest to lynch him today. What do you think? I won't switch vote to Q just yet to give you time to chime in, but I am willing (and in favor) of doing that.

@pindicator

What did you mean with

So Qgqqqqq, what did you so last night?

Q answered he has no active role (what I don't believe as everyone up to now except Jkaen had one and what is another reason why I want to lynch him). But what did you try to point at? I believe I know, put I think you have enough posts left to answer this (maybe you can put it together with some thoughts on what I asked Lewwyn above and what you think).

[pindicator]

@Serdoa-

Ichabod said he taunted Qgqqqqq, so I figured why not ask?

Nah, I think Qgqqqqq is likely scum, and that was just needling him, to be honest.


Also Meiz, I meant to ask a little more than I did. I laid out that whole case on Azza, and the only thing you can think to say is:

There's no way Q is scum. Nor is lew, serdoa and ryan.

No comment on Azza at all?


50%

[Qgqqqqq]

@serdoa: I have a passive role and if thats honestly your reason I'll claim it - t does get weaker if known tho.
@Pin: I like the idea on Taunke - its seemed quite wierd how everyone we know got blocked.
@Lewwyn: I am still a bit suspicious of Moloch, but I found his Day3 play actually giving some decent town leans, which is why I've been looking around a bit today.
I think meiz or azza are our best lynch options atm.
I really don't like the way Meiz is so certain people are cleared (me included ) - as he's obviously not a seer I find it very strange.

[LeChuck]

@pin - I really like that Mass Distractor thought process. That makes a huge amount of sense. I also think that no matter what using that ability N1 is a a good move. As we saw with Brick's scan, if it seems like the scan is somehow blocked it makes the seer suspicious or anyone else too. Damn near got me lynched...

As for the lynch: Lewwyn, I think we should lynch Q (or whomever you think has a higher chance to be a wolf but I think you agree on Q) first. If we have 2 wolves left we are ok with either hitting SK or wolf, but if we have 3 wolves left, we have an issue. I have a hard time seeing 6 scum (thats 28% of the players) but with 2 factions it still might be. I certainly would like not to take chances. If we do have 3 wolves we are at 4-3-1 right now. Lynching SK makes that 4-3 and nightkill makes it 3-3 -> wolves win. I think Meiz is the SK, but it might not be in our village best interest to lynch him today. What do you think? I won't switch vote to Q just yet to give you time to chime in, but I am willing (and in favor) of doing that.

If there are 3 scum and we lynch scum instead of SK then I think we're screwed anyway since that means: 4-2-1 and if no double up or cross scum kills 2-2-1, or 3-2-1 at which point we're losing no matter who we lynch. So I don't think it matters whether we lynch scum or SK. I'm pretty sure there are only 2 scum, 1 SK left anyway.

Personally I would prefer to lynch Meiz, but we still have time left in the day to get feedback from other people and possibly hear some role reveals. I think we'll be okay as long as we lynch some scum.

[Qgqqqqq]

I just want to ask - why do people think that Ichabod dieing after targetting me is such a big thing?
Ichabod was a confirmed town - scum/SK we're almost certainly targetting him anyway.

[LeChuck]

I just want to ask - why do people think that Ichabod dieing after targetting me is such a big thing?
Ichabod was a confirmed town - scum/SK we're almost certainly targetting him anyway.

Its not Ichabod dying. Its Ichabod taunting you and my ability going through.

[Qgqqqqq]

So you're banking on a roleblocker?
Assuming Pin is correct about tasunke, why would scum get two roleblockers?

[LeChuck]

So you're banking on a roleblocker?
Assuming Pin is correct about tasunke, why would scum get two roleblockers?

One as a town wide 1 - shot ability the other as a targeted blocker, but even if there isn't a single target roleblocker, that's not what we're banking on. Process of elimination + your posts and suspicions = likely scum. Just look at your latest vote post. You vote Azza and mention Meiz, but don't mention Ryan who you were full on at the start of the day. You're trying to back track round.

[Qgqqqqq]

No I'm not - I didn't mention Ryan because he was my biggest suspect, I mentioned him because I had some thoughts that I wanted to share (thoughts which serdoa still hasn't responded to)