[SPOILERS] Small Wunders and Izzy of Inca: The fat lady sings

[MindyMcCready]

The yellow circles are 1-mover defenders.
The Brown circle are 2-mover defenders.
The purple triangles are where we can be forked. The West fork is a vulnerablity, it would be nice to have a fort there. The East fork isn't really a vunerability due to terrain (river crossing or hill).

[WilliamLP]

What would you think of moving the mid yellow square 1E? I think it would mean we could move the eastern city 1N without having to worry about someone settling next to the gold and taking it. Marble and a river adjacent mean it also would be key for an Oracle micro plan.

[MindyMcCready]

My sense is that it's harder to defend because we don't have the 1-move zone defenders and we'd be splitting our empire's defenses into 2-chunks. We'd need proportionally more 2-move defenders, more roads, and a fort 1E of Barber's cow to compensate. I haven't looked too closely but I suspect that we wouldn't have the first chance to collateral with this setup, or strictly collateral+attack across the river as well.

Certainly the middle city is stronger and gets the very important marble online faster. But what does that have to do with the positioning of the gold-corn city? For the plains cow? Its a strong tile and will help with the startup but any city north would need that food long-term. That also needs to be weighted against not having that gold in the first ring. If this is going to be a solo, stand-alone, self supporting city wouldn't we want both the gold and corn to be first ring? Granary/monument could be delayed so we shouldn't rely on getting those borders popped.

I understand your point about culturally keeping the gold, but I still see the positioning of the gold-corn city as independent of the decision of the supporting city. I'd still say that the desert hill with 1st ring corn-gold is still better.

We have to bear in mind that planting the gold-corn city first still allows Retep to screw with us. If he plants anywere between those mountains our city is cut off. What will be our response to that? Full out war to reclaim our necessary connecting city? Is that worth it for us, especially now that we can see that team South-East is at least as far away from the gold-corn location as we are. Connecting city blocks Retep and we then only have team Sout-East to worry about.

And let's bear in mind that you want to make more workers largely because of the roading requirements to land that gold-corn location. Planting that connecting city early with its river location is a strong alternative to building more workers strictly for the purposes of that far-reaching city. At size 3 that city would have +8F and act as our kingdom's worker/settler pump.

So generally, I'd prefer:
-Defensively, our connecting city in my original location, but I'm willing to concede the point if getting marble online is part of our game plan.
-Our connecting city before the gold-corn city, especially if it's moved to your 1E location.
-The gold-corn city on the desert hill, especially if we choose to plant that before our connecting city.

One big factor is knowing what kind of land team South-East has to guage whether they're likely to make such a far reaching plant as we're likely to make. If our WII scout finds good land down there, then that should be our cue to settle the connecting city first.

Lastly, when do we really need the marble online? Pottery is almost certainly our next tech and a grainery would almost certainly be our first build in the connecting city. Would that get us the marble in time? We'd still need Masonary + Priesthood before we chop the Oracle.

[WilliamLP]

Certainly the middle city is stronger and gets the very important marble online faster. But what does that have to do with the positioning of the gold-corn city? For the plains cow? Its a strong tile and will help with the startup but any city north would need that food long-term. That also needs to be weighted against not having that gold in the first ring. If this is going to be a solo, stand-alone, self supporting city wouldn't we want both the gold and corn to be first ring? Granary/monument could be delayed so we shouldn't rely on getting those borders popped.

I understand your point about culturally keeping the gold, but I still see the positioning of the gold-corn city as independent of the decision of the supporting city. I'd still say that the desert hill with 1st ring corn-gold is still better.

I think your points are good here. Plus the tile 2S1E of the desert hill appears to be a floodplain which is really good to capture too. So, I'm sold.

We have to bear in mind that planting the gold-corn city first still allows Retep to screw with us. If he plants anywere between those mountains our city is cut off. What will be our response to that? Full out war to reclaim our necessary connecting city? Is that worth it for us, especially now that we can see that team South-East is at least as far away from the gold-corn location as we are. Connecting city blocks Retep and we then only have team Sout-East to worry about.

I still really can't see retep settling past us to his east. The move makes no sense for him to better his position this early. The land for the connecting city is amazing for commerce, but it has no production, so that city is a long term investment that will only really show its true worth after cottages mature.

And let's bear in mind that you want to make more workers largely because of the roading requirements to land that gold-corn location. Planting that connecting city early with its river location is a strong alternative to building more workers strictly for the purposes of that far-reaching city. At size 3 that city would have +8F and act as our kingdom's worker/settler pump.

+8 food means you're building 3 flood plain farms? I think I'd much rather go all cottages, all the time in that city. We've already got an unbelievable production city in Turandot, and the eastern city will be extremely strong as well.

I'm of the school of thought that if you're working an unimproved tile somewhere after the opening game, you probably don't have enough workers. And 4 for 3 cities isn't a large amount at all. But yes, the worker turn requirements are larger to start roading from the capital to the east, but we'd need to do that anyway sooner or later so it's not that bad.

My reasons for wanting the eastern city first are:
- To be sure to deny it from the SE rival, plain and simple. It's an uber-strong site.
- It will grow faster than the connecting city. It has lots of forests to immediately chop a terrace, and grows extremely fast with the corn.
- It has much more short and medium term value, with the gold giving an immediate commerce spike, and very soon it will be very strong for production. The connecting city will rely on the whip for most builds.

One big factor is knowing what kind of land team South-East has to guage whether they're likely to make such a far reaching plant as we're likely to make. If our WII scout finds good land down there, then that should be our cue to settle the connecting city first.

This map seems to have a lot of strong gold / flood plains sites, and "yes" is certainly the answer to whether he has good land:




We also don't know where his capital is, though. So he may be further south, supporting your point that he probably won't reach so far this early.

But... my gut still says that aside from denial getting the stronger eastern city running first is a better economic move, at every part of the time curve.

Lastly, when do we really need the marble online? Pottery is almost certainly our next tech and a grainery would almost certainly be our first build in the connecting city. Would that get us the marble in time? We'd still need Masonary + Priesthood before we chop the Oracle.

Yeah, I'm not so crazy for Oracle that I'd consider skipping pottery. Priesthood is right by Meditation which we have and really cheap, only 60 unmodified beakers.

Advantages we have for Oracle:
- Close marble, obviously.
- We already have Mediation, and it's a near useless tech to anyone else now. So anyone else's opportunity cost now is a whole tech they aren't going to want otherwise.
- We started with Myst, so we have an additional prereq for Masonry that most others won't have.

I'm almost more interested in the GPP from it than the tech, honestly. Not having to build a temple and spend 34 turns on a priest is a pretty big deal. We'd probably chop it in Barber (tons of forests) so the culture is a really nice benefit for threefold.

Anyway, we've got to do some micro planning, to figure out how soon is realistic. But with copper secure it makes me more inclined to go for it.

[MindyMcCready]

I think your points are good here. Plus the tile 2S1E of the desert hill appears to be a floodplain which is really good to capture too. So, I'm sold.

Ok, I'm glad that you agree with that.

My reasons for wanting the eastern city first are:
- To be sure to deny it from the SE rival, plain and simple. It's an uber-strong site.
- It will grow faster than the connecting city. It has lots of forests to immediately chop a terrace, and grows extremely fast with the corn.
- It has much more short and medium term value, with the gold giving an immediate commerce spike, and very soon it will be very strong for production. The connecting city will rely on the whip for most builds.

Certainly I'm also tempted by that location and in wanting to block it off and I still think the supporting city first would be a safer/better play but I'm happy to concede the point for the allure of yellow metal.

We have to bear in mind that planting the gold-corn city first still allows Retep to screw with us. If he plants anywere between those mountains our city is cut off. What will be our response to that?

I still really can't see retep settling past us to his east.

I agree with you that its less than a coin-flip of a chance but I don't consider it remote. I'm also going to point out that you have avoided answering this question again. If not to me, you should answer it for youself "what will our response be". How bad will it screw up our game if this happens and is the gold-corn worth it? Do we need to block team South-East that bad this early?

At size 3 that city would have +8F and act as our kingdom's worker/settler pump.

+8 food means you're building 3 flood plain farms? I think I'd much rather go all cottages, all the time in that city. We've already got an unbelievable production city in Turandot, and the eastern city will be extremely strong as well.

Yeah I would and I'm not ashamed! Seriously, in SP I would cottage those locations. But here, with our opponents so close I value the food/power more. I'm also not sure that it would even play out worse commerce wise with our high happy cap + low production. Use that +8F to grow onto more riverside grassland cottages/infrastructure whips instead of +5F and you might not be far behind. Once you've got the infrastructure and growth that you need you can always convert those FP to cottages later.

If we're going for the Oracle, it's our Great Prophet +gold+gold+silver that's going to provide our commerce short term. It might not be as crazy as it first appears.

Yeah, I'm not so crazy for Oracle that I'd consider skipping pottery. Priesthood is right by Meditation which we have and really cheap, only 60 unmodified beakers.

Ok. If we're going with gold-corn first and we plan/hope to build a granary there, then we should be free to place our connecting city where we want it as borders should expand. I guess we can wait and see if the granary is possible before deciding where to put the connecting city.

[WilliamLP]

Certainly I'm also tempted by that location and in wanting to block it off and I still think the supporting city first would be a safer/better play but I'm happy to concede the point for the allure of yellow metal.

Well I'm going to play the start a few times and see how fast Oracle can come up with the connecting city as city #3 vs #4, so I'm not totally sure either.

I agree with you that its less than a coin-flip of a chance but I don't consider it remote. I'm also going to point out that you have avoided answering this question again. If not to me, you should answer it for youself "what will our response be". How bad will it screw up our game if this happens and is the gold-corn worth it? Do we need to block team South-East that bad this early?

I think the chance of Light Blue going for the N gold / marble site is much higher than retep jumping over us to the east, because it's actually a reasonable advantageous move that could conceivably put light blue in a very strong position if it succeeds, just like us.

If Retep does put down a city that's really hard to defend and cut off from the rest of his empire by us, I guess we do the obvious thing, cut off reinforcements and attack sooner or later. I like peace, but stupid stuff does need to be punished.

Yeah I would and I'm not ashamed! Seriously, in SP I would cottage those locations. But here, with our opponents so close I value the food/power more. I'm also not sure that it would even play out worse commerce wise with our high happy cap + low production. Use that +8F to grow onto more riverside grassland cottages/infrastructure whips instead of +5F and you might not be far behind. Once you've got the infrastructure and growth that you need you can always convert those FP to cottages later.

Tech trading is off in this game, so there is no point where more commerce isn't better. And converting something to cottages later always feels like the wrong move to me since they benefit from starting earlier. By the time they're level 3, they're almost clearly better than a farm (3/0/4 vs 4/0/1). I can see having one FP farm for growth and micro though. But cottage fp tiles are pretty good for growth too!

Especially with the capital turning into a very high production site, I think we benefit from at least one dedicated commerce city.

Another factor is that as Exp we should avoid building workers with food whenever possible, and favour the whip or hammers, since they cost 60 food but only 45 base hammers (because of the +35% bonus).

[WilliamLP]

Ok, right now I'm really keen to go for Oracle and the connector city first, positioned 1E by the marble. Waiting to build a Terrace, and waiting another 10 turns for the border pop, would just be too slow I think.

I know we can get it by at least T58:




There's a lot of sloppiness there. I'm sure I can get it down a turn or two. I think city number 4 was settled around T51-52 in that build. You'll hate the unconnected copper and we probably won't do that. Oh wait, Quechuas don't go obsolete with spears like warriors do! That's actually pretty huge since it it always sucks to lose the ability to make cheap military police and fog-busters.

I think a turn 57 or 58 Oracle will be very hard to beat, since we have basically the ideal circumstances to do it.

It's an opportunity cost, but 4 strong cities by the early 50s is not too shabby. And with Oracle we could grab any of Math, Monarchy, Horseback Riding, Metal Casting, all of which have their charms.

[WilliamLP]

Oh one more thing, the light blue player is Ichabod. We made contact. I think I managed to move in range of a peak in his borders and then move out of sight in the same turn. I'd rather he not know we have a W2 warrior. I'll post a screenshot tomorrow.

Ichabod/Wetbandit: Shaka of Greece (AGG / EXP, Fishing, Hunting, Phalanx, Odeon)

[MindyMcCready]

Tech trading is off in this game, so there is no point where more commerce isn't better.

And converting something to cottages later always feels like the wrong move to me since they benefit from starting earlier. By the time they're level 3, they're almost clearly better than a farm (3/0/4 vs 4/0/1). I can see having one FP farm for growth and micro though. But cottage fp tiles are pretty good for growth too!

Can't argue that more commerce is better!

The question is whether the faster, extra growth, onto another cottage, could possibly outperform. I'm not sure what the answer is,.. if one farm is better what about 2 farms,...then what about 3 farms etc,... Diminishing growth rates in cottage development and our game-specific high happy cap are big factors.

I did a quick spreadsheet simulation where the 3FP are cottages vs farms. No whipping, no granary, just grow onto the next riverside grass cottage. After 23 turns the farms have all but caught up in CPT; Size 5 vs Size 7 and diminishing growth rates in cottage development. T27, the farms are outperforming in CPT at Size 8 vs Size 5. By T50 the farms have equalized the total commerce output over time.

Now this doesn't take into account maintenance expense (which favours cottages only), whipping (which favours farms I'd guess), nor worker requirements (favours cottages). Regardless, I don't think that the answer, measured by either CPT or lifetime commerce generated, is so clear-cut in favour of FP cottages. And then there's the quicker infrastructure, extra power, flexibility that the extra pop will provide.

Do you have unlimited spare sim-time?

[WilliamLP]

You also have to take into account that fp farms take 7 bloody worker turns to build (cottages are 5). And commerce is lost in the long run: the time that the early cottages will be working towns, the farm build would still be working villages, etc. I know some people consider +6 food the sweet spot. It's there already working 4 fp cottages. And I don't think the speed that this city gets up to the happy cap is much of a constraint; it will spend most of its life there. We're going to have a really hard time with workers keeping up with its growth, too.

Anyway, turn report:




There's how the east looks. It would be nice to know which direction Ichabod's capital is. My guess is somewhere south because west would be way too close to Retep. The desert hill the warrior is standing on would be a crazy endgame commerce city site with sheep, five floodplains and 2 wines.




We still have no idea where Retep's second city is. He did plant one a few turns ago. I'd guess it's a copper plant.




The spike is the gold hookup.






Retep is working a high hammer configuration instead of food. Maybe he's building a worker where it doesn't matter, or maybe it really is some kind of a choke? I fear reading too much into it.




If Bacchus is choking he isn't doing it with much: he has 2 warriors and bronze, no wheel or archery.