Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[ipecac]

So Ipecac, you would say you're still on the Kavanaugh train?

I don't see why the appointment process should be affected by unsubstantiated accusations. They can always impeach him later if he's actually found guilty.

[ipecac]

Kavanaugh can get off the hook by claiming that Ford said that in order to deny him the SC seat because she said that he could get the seat. It's still over 50% for me because it's too hard for her to guess #MeToo; which makes her attack work. But that's not good enough to make an impact politically. You can bog it down just fine (you using Hill is a great example of this). It doesn't matter/it's worthless politically.

As I said, Hill was close to blocking it, so the attack could work just fine without this hashtag stuff.

[MJW (ya that one)]

You will look foolish Ipecac if you try to defend Moore. In order for Moore to be innocent you would have to have a conspiracy of over 50 people or so that doesn't crack. That's very unlikely (0.01%). This is a probabilistic argument that could be wrong but that doesn't matter. You can always be wrong anyway.

Edit: Unlike Ford, Hill had access to other women that could have backed her up in the Senate allowed it (workplace). But that argument you're making is good enough to bog things down just fine.

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Ford isn't the only accuser, Ramirez's story is also pretty damn credible. I'm going to take a raincheck on anything Avenatti ever says.

Funny story by the way. A worthless NR lackey named Ed Whelan tried to frame one of Kavanaugh's schoolmates for the attempted rape, which was instantly shot down by Ford. There's a good chance that Kavanaugh was the one who first tried to push out a mistaken identity defence. Depending on the coordination between Kavanaugh and Whelan, and if Whelan gets sued for defamation, it would be really fucking funny to see Kavanaugh put up for trying to frame one of his classmates for his rape attempt.

[MJW (ya that one)]

3 accuser but the 2 new ones are less good. Brett probably (80%) goes down if Ford shows up but her car hasn't left the driveway so she probably won't. GOP might be able to make the other 2 look bad because of this (coinflip).

65% sure Brett lied. PredictIt is confident that GOP will ram someone through.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Ford @ 80% to show up on PredictIt now...

[MJW (ya that one)]

A 4th woman; Brett loses unless Ford crashes & burns.

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Oooohh I just heard about what our resident 4chan nazi Ipecac is on about: 4chan tried to convince everyone they pulled off an epic prank on the lying lib media by making their hot stripper girlfriend talk through a voice modulator and planting a fake story on Avenatti... except that there actually is a client.

This is basically the Steele dossier all over again, but twice as pathetic.

[Commodore]

Not to interrupt the Super Serious Search for Haven Monahan, but I saw this on Facebook, someone summarizing Trump's UN speech:

I guess it's that time again. He always makes these speeches so long. Anyway, here's a summary of each paragraph of Trump's 2018 UN speech

1. Listen up, bitches
2. I pretty much already covered all this shit last year, but I guess it bears repeating
3. Check it out, I've been on a roll
4. My administration is better than all the other presidential administrations the US has ever had. I've made these last two years my bitch
5. Why's everybody laughing at me?
6. Not to brag or anything but I basically saved the entire economy. Even minorities have jobs now.
7. Taxation is theft and we're building The Wall
8. You thought our military was fucking hardcore before? Sheeet, wait until you see them now that we're actually paying them
9. Thanks to me, AMERICA, FUCK YEAH!
10. America First
11. Globalism is shit
12. Cultures are distinct, so act your culture
13. America likes to declare independence. We're gonna declare independence from the rest of you globalist sons of bitches
14. Do you, boo
15. Let us do us
16. So I just got back from a world tour and everybody who matters likes me
17. I even got the Norks to chill the fuck out
18. No shit, there I was: Staring Rocket Man in the face
19. It's alright though, I smoothed it out
20. Dude's getting rid of his nukes and giving us back our dead bodies we've been wanting back
21. Not too shabby, Li'l Kim. (Don't fuck this up)
22. Everybody who helped out with that is cool in my book. It was pretty much the greatest peace talk ever talked. Just sayin'
23. Shout out to Real Korea, Japan, and China
24. Oh, and I'm fixing the Middle East, too
25. I put most of the countries there to work fucking over Iran and ISIS
26. They're spending money to help with Syria and Yemen, too. Ya hear that Iran? We can outspend your fucking Obama money
27. But, I don't really want to get involved
28. Except when I do, so I've been delegating to the less fucked-up sand countries
29. I FUCKING KILLED ISIS!

30. Syria's a damn shitshow. But so help me, if I see one more chemical weapon attack...
31. Glad to see Jordan is taking in refugees from Syria. Better you than me, Abdullah
32. But seriously, it's a lot better than flying them all the way over here. RIGHT, EUROPE?
33. Iran's trying to get away with its involvement? YOU THOUGHT!
34. Fuck you, Iran! I know what you've been up to, you garbage-ass regime! All you do is ruin everything else for everyone else, you miserable sons of bitches!
35. Seriously, even your own citizens are sick of your shit, Iran! Where'd all that Obama money go, eh Iran? Terrorism? Yeah, I'm sure your people are just THRILLED about that! 0/10 all around, Iran
36. The Iran Deal was shit, and everybody knows it
37. We basically funded their military dictatorship, nuclear weapons programs, and terrorism. Thanks, Obama
38. -But then I came to tooown- and let Iran know who's boss. DEAL'S OFF, BITCHES!

39. Like, seriously, who the fuck thought letting Iran have nukes was a good idea?
40. Everybody point and laugh at Iran's government. Their people are cool, though. #IranProtests
41. Jerusalem? More like Jew-rusalem, amirite?
42. Let's clear some shit up about the Israel conflict, alright? Israel has a right to exist.
43. Fuck what you used to do, we're being pragmatic, here.
44. You ain't gonna take advantage of the US anymore, you freeloaders.
45. I'm sick of all this "made in China" crap
46. We buy all their shit and they don't buy all of our stuff and they do all that skeezy, nerdy, accountant stuff to take advantage of us
47. No more, I say!
48. So I made some great deals with Mexico and Real Korea. Expect yuge discounts on taco bowls and Samsung phones
49. The WTO is a fucking joke.
50. China took all our manufacturing jobs
51. THAT SHIT ENDS NOW, CHINA!
52. Would you like some tariffs with your rice?
53. America First
54. The UN Human Rights Council is a fucking joke, too
55. Y'all wouldn't listen to Nikki Haley when she told you that
56. So deuces, we out
57. Same with your International Criminal Court. It's all bullshit
58. You have no power, here, G̶a̶n̶d̶a̶l̶f̶ ICC
59. Everyone should leave the EU. Run your own damn countries
60. America's killin' it in the energy industry
61. We have so much energy to sell
62. Those other oil-producing countries will rip you off and that makes me angry
63. Seriously, it's a scam. They're like the Comcast of countries. Stop falling for it.
64. Poland is way smarter than Germany
65. Men of the West! Protect yourselves from foreign influence!
66. The Monroe Doctrine is back and better than ever!
67. Now about those Mexican immigrants, they're being trafficked. Lame

68. It's all the street gangs and cartels. Getting rid of them, and building The Wall, are the only ways to fix things
69. Your country, your immigration rules. Our country, our immigration rules. Fuck that "global citizen" malarkey
70. Make Your Countries Great Again
71. SOCIALISM. DOESN'T. WORK.
72. Venezuela used to be great, but then along came socialism. Now it sucks.
73. Socialism and Communism have never worked, never will work, and only ever result in tragedy. It's the Goddamn worst
74. We're making Venezuela great again by hitting Maduro and his entourage in the pocket books. We were able to identify their pocketbooks because they're THE ONLY ONES IN THE COUNTRY WHO HAVE THEM
75. The UN tries, we'll give you that
76. But the US is still better at charity. Seriously, we give and give and nobody ever returns the favor. So we're gonna be a lot more stingy with our wallets until the entire world stops taking us for a ride
77. So we're only going to give money to the cool kids. And we're not going to protect you guys, either. Time for you to buy your own militaries
78. The UN could be cool if it just changed everything about it
79. And we're only going to pay for the stuff we like, now, too
80. Start pulling your own weight, you damned freeloaders
81. The UN is good in concept, terrible in execution

82. Every country has something to contribute
83. India's doing great
84. Saudi Arabia's shaping up
85. Israel's still here, bitch!
86. Poland's had enough of your shit, EU
87. All cool things, if I do say so myself
88. Distinct borders and cultures make the world a better place
89. Things just work out better with cultural homogeneity
90. America's gotta America
91. America, FUCK YEAH!
92. Love your country like Americans love America
93. Patriotism: It's what's for dinner
94. Shhhh. Don't fight it. Just let it happen
95. In order to make it work though, YOU NEED A BORDER AND SOVEREIGNTY
96. You'll do better, the world will do better. Everybody wins
97. MOTHAFUCKIN' FREEDOOOOM!!
98. Well, time to hit the ol' dusty trail
99. You've been a great crowd. Thank you

Of all the movies to be perfectly prophetic...

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well the three new accusers aren't actually that good. One would not show up, one didn't leave address on letter and one's ex-boyfriend put a restraining order on her and used Avenatti. Only 60% sure.