Played turn 15.
![[Image: t015-overview.jpg?raw=1]](https://www.dropbox.com/s/lb949pcoim55hwq/t015-overview.jpg?raw=1)
There is obviously potential for an absolute monster of a city here, but we'll see how the area shakes out as the game progresses. This spot is seven tiles from our capital and eight tiles from Serdoa's. It is more diagonal towards Serdoa's so the plot distance is higher for him as well. Next turn we move SW-SE or 2SW. South of the pig is coast (not a lake) so moving to the pig might let us see quite a few tiles over the water. I'm not sure though, we'll see how the bleed looks after we move SW next turn. We know that Serdoa's scout is currently 2S of our scout because that is the only possible tile that we do not have vision on.
![[Image: t015-demos.jpg?raw=1]](https://www.dropbox.com/s/v18u37yf0jaqqw0/t015-demos.jpg?raw=1)
Bob grew to 2. There were no techs discovered so the other 2k power increase must be from the first warrior of the game. The warrior is not from SD because his power remains at rival high 10k. Also, it is basically impossible to build a warrior without growing to 2, so I am going to assume the warrior is from Bob. Lewwyn opened with a work boat and should be building a worker now, not spending hammers on a warrior at size 2. Rusten, Serdoa, and SD remain at size 1.
SD continues to spend 4 EP/turn on us. We will likely spend 1/turn on him while this situation continues to maintain his graphs.
I'm giving this answer a D. Having things line up is cool but has no inherent value. I would say it has a slight negative value because it increases your probability of making a mistake. The real value however is mentioned in some of the subsequent answers.
Assuming you mean Hunting and not Bronze Working, this is a very good answer, good for a B+. Not because it is necessarily higher EV than Cornflakes's answer, but because it is harder to think of. KTB is value, denying KTB is also (but less) value.
This is a good answer, I'd say a B-. Like pindicator's answer, these are both subsets of the real and complete answer.
This is a great answer, but nonsensical. I am assuming you got confused by the error in pindicator's answer. We are delaying Hunting, not Bronze Working. So this is an F. That means not passing if you need that translated to British.
Don't make me give you a suspension.
The real answer lies in the difference in multipliers. Bronze Working gets the most multipliers right now because of 5% KTB and 20% PRB. Since we had a lot of overflow out of Mining, we can dump the overflow and the turn's research into BW which netted us 27b in BW. This turn we swapped back to Hunting and with the previous research we have 27b in Hunting at EOT. If we had dumped the overflow into Hunting last turn we would have gotten 36b in Hunting. Then for comparison's sake one turn of research in BW without any overflow would have been 16b. (I verified these numbers in the sandbox if you are wondering.) 36b + 16b < 27b + 27b. The difference is apparently 2b, however we will also get overflow out of Hunting and right now the sandbox is showing that we'll lose 1b there compared to if we overflowed out of Hunting earlier (because the overflow out of Hunting will be smaller). So the current expected gain is 1b. Essentially, this is value produced by reducing the loss to truncation by matching the bigger chunk with the bigger multiplier. We would also pick up an additional beaker or two if we meet someone with Hunting in the meantime, because we are delaying Hunting as previously mentioned. So the value is 1b with some additional upside. And yes, delaying Hunting by two turns will reduce KTB for SD should he be researching that now, which is very likely. Nobody additional can research BW before we finish Hunting, so we cannot be losing any beakers there to potential KTB gain.
There is obviously potential for an absolute monster of a city here, but we'll see how the area shakes out as the game progresses. This spot is seven tiles from our capital and eight tiles from Serdoa's. It is more diagonal towards Serdoa's so the plot distance is higher for him as well. Next turn we move SW-SE or 2SW. South of the pig is coast (not a lake) so moving to the pig might let us see quite a few tiles over the water. I'm not sure though, we'll see how the bleed looks after we move SW next turn. We know that Serdoa's scout is currently 2S of our scout because that is the only possible tile that we do not have vision on.
Bob grew to 2. There were no techs discovered so the other 2k power increase must be from the first warrior of the game. The warrior is not from SD because his power remains at rival high 10k. Also, it is basically impossible to build a warrior without growing to 2, so I am going to assume the warrior is from Bob. Lewwyn opened with a work boat and should be building a worker now, not spending hammers on a warrior at size 2. Rusten, Serdoa, and SD remain at size 1.
SD continues to spend 4 EP/turn on us. We will likely spend 1/turn on him while this situation continues to maintain his graphs.
(September 22nd, 2020, 09:24)scooter Wrote: Guessing that's because it will allow you to complete Hunting just in time for your worker to finish the corn and be ready to camp the deer?
I'm giving this answer a D. Having things line up is cool but has no inherent value. I would say it has a slight negative value because it increases your probability of making a mistake. The real value however is mentioned in some of the subsequent answers.
(September 22nd, 2020, 09:48)pindicator Wrote: You're trying to minimize the 1 beaker other civs get by delaying Bronze Working as long as possible
Assuming you mean Hunting and not Bronze Working, this is a very good answer, good for a B+. Not because it is necessarily higher EV than Cornflakes's answer, but because it is harder to think of. KTB is value, denying KTB is also (but less) value.
(September 22nd, 2020, 11:19)Cornflakes Wrote: Alternatively, trying to maximize the 1 beaker you get from other civs?
This is a good answer, I'd say a B-. Like pindicator's answer, these are both subsets of the real and complete answer.
(September 22nd, 2020, 12:46)Old Harry Wrote: You don't want to know where your copper is because you're sure Pindicator screwed you and you don't want your friendship to end for a few extra days?
This is a great answer, but nonsensical. I am assuming you got confused by the error in pindicator's answer. We are delaying Hunting, not Bronze Working. So this is an F. That means not passing if you need that translated to British.
(September 22nd, 2020, 16:09)Old Harry Wrote: No. I got it. You're just trolling for posts. Well that isn't going to work around here young man.
Oh.
Don't make me give you a suspension.
The real answer lies in the difference in multipliers. Bronze Working gets the most multipliers right now because of 5% KTB and 20% PRB. Since we had a lot of overflow out of Mining, we can dump the overflow and the turn's research into BW which netted us 27b in BW. This turn we swapped back to Hunting and with the previous research we have 27b in Hunting at EOT. If we had dumped the overflow into Hunting last turn we would have gotten 36b in Hunting. Then for comparison's sake one turn of research in BW without any overflow would have been 16b. (I verified these numbers in the sandbox if you are wondering.) 36b + 16b < 27b + 27b. The difference is apparently 2b, however we will also get overflow out of Hunting and right now the sandbox is showing that we'll lose 1b there compared to if we overflowed out of Hunting earlier (because the overflow out of Hunting will be smaller). So the current expected gain is 1b. Essentially, this is value produced by reducing the loss to truncation by matching the bigger chunk with the bigger multiplier. We would also pick up an additional beaker or two if we meet someone with Hunting in the meantime, because we are delaying Hunting as previously mentioned. So the value is 1b with some additional upside. And yes, delaying Hunting by two turns will reduce KTB for SD should he be researching that now, which is very likely. Nobody additional can research BW before we finish Hunting, so we cannot be losing any beakers there to potential KTB gain.
Civilization IV: 21 (Bismarck of Mali), 29 (Mao Zedong of Babylon), 38 (Isabella of China), 45 (Victoria of Sumeria), PB12 (Darius of Sumeria), 56 (Hammurabi of Sumeria), PB16 (Bismarck of Mali), 78 (Augustus of Byzantium), PB56 (Willem of China)
Hearthstone: ArenaDrafts Profile No longer playing Hearthstone.
Hearthstone: ArenaDrafts Profile No longer playing Hearthstone.
![[Image: t016-overview.jpg?raw=1]](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ctmi44h58l852r4/t016-overview.jpg?raw=1)
![[Image: t016-demos.jpg?raw=1]](https://www.dropbox.com/s/bygqsqbox9zw0hq/t016-demos.jpg?raw=1)
![[Image: t017-overview.jpg?raw=1]](https://www.dropbox.com/s/z3xnwmmzmyba9ah/t017-overview.jpg?raw=1)
![[Image: t017-demos.jpg?raw=1]](https://www.dropbox.com/s/2x0tdxe2azw8vkb/t017-demos.jpg?raw=1)
