[PB79] MirOh No, what am I doing?

[Miro]

I believe the units are assumed to attack in order, top to bottom. There may be a setting to check to ensure that happens.

When running vodka, do 10000 or a million iterations. 100 can be swingy (the civ 4 pseudo RNG is fucked).

Thanks! And now I see it in the Notes at the bottom:



I just saw "air units" at #1 and ignored the rest b/c I'm not used to air battles - unless we're talking about Mutalisks vs Mutalisks.
Sometimes Vodka returned error messages about taking too long when I input 10K iterations so I just run it multiple times.

[Miro]

With the machine guns ticket to ride should be fine for now, but will need reinforcements.

What are the stacks at Smash Up? Again, you don't need to kill everything. I had multiple times vs SD in PB75 recently where I attacked out in order to kill enough so I didn't get collateraled first in order to hold a city. Collateral is really painful to get hit by MOST times. I don't really trust Vodka this late in the game with large stacks and collateral involved. I tend to quick build it in world builder. Can make defending side computer, give them no promos, give attacker a bunch of ggs to quickly promote and see how bad it is.

Here's the Smash Up area, with +2 Cannons, +1 Catapult, and 2 more drafts available this turn (in range of their stack or defending Smash Up)

[Mjmd]

I don't like it. So you could have 8 rifles 2 grens and collateral him first, but you only have 7 cannon? and some cho kos vs 13 rifles, 7 grens plusjunk. Staying in place is risky, but he only has 6 cannons? I don't suppose you have more gold to upgrade machine guns? With his low collateral count and you being protective it may not be the worse idea to try holding. I would probably test first, but attacking out this turn doesn't look good. You need more cannons. With railroads ect I'm assuming you can get a lot more there next turn? Speaking of, why is there a library in production...... This is an all hands on deck moment.

[Miro]

I don't like it. So you could have 8 rifles 2 grens and collateral him first, but you only have 7 cannon? and some cho kos vs 13 rifles, 7 grens plusjunk. Staying in place is risky, but he only has 6 cannons? I don't suppose you have more gold to upgrade machine guns? With his low collateral count and you being protective it may not be the worse idea to try holding. I would probably test first, but attacking out this turn doesn't look good. You need more cannons. With railroads ect I'm assuming you can get a lot more there next turn? Speaking of, why is there a library in production...... This is an all hands on deck moment.

Betrayal HotH finished an SoL last turn, Library was in production before war. I add Library to the bottom of the queue so I don't forget it later and lose hammers already applied, but it looks like it did spend a turn on Library instead of a new unit.

I'll test defending the city in WB. I can have 2 more Cannons over there next turn. I don't have many Cannons, but getting more in production.

[Miro]

After tests and vodka, and testing in vodka, I retreated from Smash Up

And for the record - I'm not mad at xist, just hope the city made him laugh

[Tarkeel]

Vodka likes that defense for me, assuming I'm using Vodka right. I'm not sure if "City Garrison 2" promotion already includes "City Garrison 1" effects. I input both, so if it does include the effects, then I have it double-counting some bonuses.
[snip]
Does Vodka run the Collateral Damage units in first before calculating the rest?

Vodka does not assume pre-req promotions, only what you specify, mostly because that would be unsafe assumptions. It also does a "stupid blind attack" from top to bottom, and should thus be considered a worst-case scenario. A player who tweaks attack orders based on odds will outperform Vodka.

[Miro]

Tiny Update:
coldrain added ~4 Riflemen and a Cannon to Ticket to Ride area, I reinforced with 1 Gren (should have slowed down to see I can send another Machine Gun). He might get it this turn.
coldrain captured (not razed) Smash Up. His army is still moving inward. I killed his Explorer, so he won't see my extra forces creeping around. He won't be able to siege a city for a while.
Also killed xist's Explorer in that area. No watching for you. Got 2 coldrain Workers and a road raze with the Chariot, too.
xist has some Ironclads on the move and is 3T from Assembly Line. I'm still working on Economics.
xist's army is healing up and his southern navy tried to trap the group I had harassing his Clams (or Crabs?), but I think those water battles will stay calm this turn after moving the rest of my SW navy to protect it. Jesus, I have 3 navy forces...
While they're important, I'm surprised at how little naval battling actually occurs. We're ready to throw hordes of armies at each other, but just poke with ships and retreat.

I thought about offering coldrain Ticket to Ride for peace (and so we both preserve armies), but if he keeps creeping his army forward, then I think I can take back Smash Up.



Yes, Hues and Cues is building a Levee instead of military. I argued with the mayor but he only speaks Chinese and wo de zhong wen bu hao. My Chinese is bad.

[Mjmd]

Wtf is he thinking. On multiple levels mind you, but specifically slow moving that army in. You should 100% be hiding yours fyi. You don't even have to kill it next turn, you can do turn after when he moves next to a city. I would try offering peace war with Xist on his side. He won't accept it but its the right message. IE Xist is leading you idiot (and you know took cities off of you). AFTER you send that send peace for Smash Up. You can literally take it back at will; that is an extremely greedy keep.

[Miro]

T198:
coldrain turned his army around and didn't hit Ticket to Ride, but his army isn't retreating atm. 2 Galleons are bringing up the rear, so they might be for retreating or reinforcing. I added 2 more Machine Guns to Ticket to Ride (+Drill 2), so I feel safe there.

I sent the offers you mentioned and sent Gira an open borders offer, then offered Dye to stop trading with xist.

xist hit my SW navy stack for a pretty even trade.
I lost:
-8 SoL
-2 Frigate

Xist lost:
-9 SoL
-2 Frigate

Xist has an Ironclad force pushing in the north. Are we still sure Ironclads are trash? Given this map, I'm unsure. I mean, I guess I can run past them and I don't want to build ironclads in faraway cities because of the time it'd take to reach the front line, but front line cities can build some. Curious what his plans are with the force.



I have most major railroads set up, so I'm moving most of my army west (not pushing to border). If coldrain pushes again, it takes no time to get back. I don't think he'll give Smash Up back, but he doesn't know I don't have a stack of doom looming nearby. (Q2 below)

xist isn't making major moves anymore, he only had 1 whip last turn and 3 whips for the past few turns, so it seems like he's just building up and hoping coldrain tires me out. That's the plan we were worried about back when he wanted me to help 2v1 coldrain with him earlier.

Man, wars in MP are way more complex than SP.

Questions:
(Q1): Should I reconsider building some Ironclads on this map or just run around his Ironclads? My navies aren't trying to invade islands (I have zero Galleons), just prevent their invasions.

(Q2): Y'all use spies to spy? I know missions are off, but if coldrain has a few spies around, then he'd know my army isn't about to demolish his from FoW.

(Q3): If a player is inactive in their thread, do you take that to mean anything or is that pretty normal in the late game? Before coldrain's small mistake, I noticed he hadn't posted in his thread for a month or more - back during his war with xist. I took that to mean he was losing interest in the game (understandable) and was upset with xist (oh do I know the feeling!). I wasn't surprised he DoW'd me, but was surprised at how committed he is. Not just that he's working alongside xist, but that he sent a big army, big navy, and is reinforcing and still whipping seriously:



This table uses PBSpy's table and counts score drops (when you're logged in* to ignore city losses). ÷7 for approximate population drops from whips/drafts. We were all calm as the Carthage-Native America war ended and during our GAs, but they turned up their whips in the 10T leading up to war and coldrain is still at it.

Also, I gotta take back the devil horns and tail I gave coldrain back for his T81 whipping. He was whipping more than anyone at the time, but I see now that I'm kind of a super Hitler from all my whipping.

[Mjmd]

Man, wars in MP are way more complex than SP.

Quoted for truth.

1) I mean I've never seen them be useful before BUT I think they may be here. Narrow waterways and you are defending. Ya ok; probably should have seen the benefits and had you build some earlier.
2) Ya probably should have had you build a couple spies AGES ago. Might have warned of Xist attack. I just forgot they were on, my bad. In a lot of the MP games I've played they have been off. Don't go nuts. I think you just need 1 for Xist. Coldrains army is IN your territory so no fear there.
3) It REALLY depends on the player. In general I would take it as lack of interest. He may honestly just not realize you've gone from winning to being behind Xist due to this war. I am also surprised with how committed he is to the war. Tying down some forces, I maybe can see that. Going all in? Risky as hell. Again, I would have demanded my cities back from Xist before helping, not give him another.......

4) While I'm SEVERELY tempted to go whack Coldrains army because stack wipes are fun, I do think a wait and see approach is probably better. Again, because of culture you can literally go retake your city when you think its time. A good lesson for MP war.
5) Ya 2v1 wars are brutal. Only the most ahead of players can do them and come out still ahead. You weren't that far ahead (which again Coldrain wtf) and in a survival situation whipping / drafting a lot is required and also what makes invasions so hard. You probably can't let up yet either.         If Ticket to Ride had been placed on Coldrains side of the island I think giving it up for peace would have been great. But as is it just would have been a pressure point going into the future and without knowing if Coldrain would then ally with Xist couldn't trust that. You've only permanently lost 1 city though, so maybe keep spamming the same two requests to Coldrain over and over again (at least for a couple turns). Get out frustration at least and maybe drill it into his skull.

6) What are your current tech goals. I'm not going to lie its SUPPORT awkward atm. I'm assuming corp and then you aren't far from either assembly line or combustion. Kremlin if its still on the table is probably worth a quick detour. I almost think it has to be combustion after. Its awkward because Xist gets to get factories and coal plants online, but if you don't hit naval tech at about the same time you kind of just lose. Why I wouldn't mind going for Kremlin.