Gavagai climbs the chaos ladder

[Gavagai]

Guys, etiquette question. Currently is the last turn of our peace with Commodore. I played first, Commodore played second. After Commodore played I logged in to quickly check one unrelated thing in the game. After I logged in, however, I discovered I would receive a significant tactical benefit if declared on Commodore next turn, playing first. I did not receive any real advantage of my impromptu login: I did not move any units and the information I received is from Airship visibility that I will re-acquire at the start of the next turn anyway. However, I don't think I have any way to prove that I did not double move during my last log in and there is no way for Commodore to know I did not either.
So, in such a situation - is it ok for me to declare? Normally I avoid logging in out of turn even during peacetime when the situation is tense exactly because of such considerations. This time, however, I did not plan on declaring as I did not think Commodore would give me such an opportunity, was fixated on the thing I wanted to check and did not think all the implications through.

[Gavagai]

I think I will not attack Commodore next turn anyway, there might be better openings in the future.
A quick report on what happened so far - I used Commodore's peace treaty to muscle Piccadilly out of the north:

I razed Kolhapur - the city ruins under the Oil sign - and captured Brest and Akhetaten. There was almost no combat - Piccadilly initially moved his stack up but when he saw what he is up against, he turned back and ran. Piccadilly was subbed by Dulland, so I decided to try my luck and offer peace for Halifax. An eminently reasonable option for a normal player in such position but I doubt Piccadilly would accept given what I know of his attitude. Dulland, however, accepted and I ended up with this beauty:


Greenline's former capital, behold. Speaking of Greenline, the situation of this city clearly marks how he outlived his usefulness. So...

It would be cool to eliminate him in one turn but he has so much trash in his cities that I just did not have units on hand to kill all of it. Also, he teched to Astronomy and is now building colonies, two of those, to be precise. I found one of them but I do not know where the other is, though I have a good theory. After I take these islands, I offer peace to him in case he wants to stay in the game. If he does not, I'll finish him off.

His new capital is surprisingly nice. Will take ages to come out of revolt though.

And this is the stack that ran away from me. Also, observe workers building cottages - Dulland reversed quite a few of long-standing Piccadilly's policies during his short reign.

A later picture after Piccadilly took over again. His units are moving north and I think they are going to tear Superdeath apart.

Where are these Galleons going? Mig is brewing something.
All Commodore stuff will be in the next report.

[Gavagai]

Demos post golden age. Best GNP is Pindicator who was at golden age at the moment and probably mass building commerce trying to get to Assembly Line ASAP.

[Mjmd]

I think I will not attack Commodore next turn anyway, there might be better openings in the future.

I did ask in the lurker thread and the opinions were "PM Commodore and ask him" and "he shouldn't attack in the first half". No consensus was reached.

In general I would try not to log in multiple times. I know from experience these late game situations can make it hard to finish in one go. I know people have been pretty resistant to increasing the clock in this game, but if you want I could broach the subject in tech thread.

[Gavagai]

I think I will not attack Commodore next turn anyway, there might be better openings in the future.

I did ask in the lurker thread and the opinions were "PM Commodore and ask him" and "he shouldn't attack in the first half". No consensus was reached.

In general I would try not to log in multiple times. I know from experience these late game situations can make it hard to finish in one go. I know people have been pretty resistant to increasing the clock in this game, but if you want I could broach the subject in tech thread.

To be clear, when you say "people" you just mean Commodore, right? From what I remember, he is the only person being anal about turn speed out of the nine players remaining in the game. Otherwise, noted. I am a bit irritated though, because the only reason I need (and can't) log in multiple times is Commodore being an idiot. This entire standoff between him and me serves no purpose for him and does not even particularly hurt me in game terms. The only thing it really achieves is stealing about an hour of my time every day but maybe this is what Commodore is going for.
No need for an increased timer so far, I think.

[Gavagai]

My apologize for being irritable earlier. Was in really bad headspace because of real life stuff but still no excuse. I am in a better mood now, so let's talk about Commodore, shall we?
Diplomatic context first. After our skirmish ten turns ago I offered Commodore fish, hoping that losing six destroyers for no reason taught him a lesson. He opted for a different way to enhance his security: signed a defensive pact with Mig. A very smart move - I will not risk to trigger war with Mig frivolously, at the very least because my economy is reliant on our IC trade. A few turns later, however, he also made the same pact with Pindicator which sort of completely cancelled the benefits of Mig pact. I don't have any trade with Pindi and he can do nothing to me, so if I need I can just declare on him, thus triggering the war with Commodore without drawing Mig in. Of course, there is a risk Mig would declare on me himself after that but I think he would only do it if he wanted to attack anyway. 
Commodore also supplies Oil to both of them as neither has SciMethod - I tried to squeeze myself into that market by offering Pindi Oil for OB but he ignored me. Really, why bother with me if Commodore is willing to give him Oil for freaking Corn, lol. Mig, by the way, has to pay 30 gpt so we know for certain whom of his children daddy Commodore loves more.
By the way, I could be blind but I think Commodore has no Uranium. Of course, Pindicator will happily sell him Uranium for Crab or something but for this he would need to research Fission. As of now Pindi is the most backward of Great Powers, so he might be a little late to Fission.
There is Uranium in Tarkeel's territory and Commodore had all this information for ages as he went Physics before Assembly Line (once again, unless I am a blind idiot who just missed Uranium icon in the globe view). Sure, all the more reason to finally integrate Tarkeel, right? But no, instead we will be doing this:

Bandit 1

Bandit 2

Bandit 3
And here is a globe view with all Bandits marked.

So, what do I make of this? I do not believe for a second this a serious invasion attempt. I believe Commodore's boats are half-empty and half-filled with junk troops. Observe that these stacks mostly use Galleons as means of transport - and they move around at the speed of Galleons. It means I've been tracking their movements since forever and there is no surprise factor he can count on. Also, suppose any of these fleets ever finds itself face to face with the force that can destroy it. In that case Destroyers would have to abandon their wooden brethren and run for their lives.
What I believe is going on here is Commodore trying to pin down my land army. Firstly, if the war ever starts I will not be able to reinforce my islands as Commodore supposedly has naval superiority (more on that later though). So I need to put fat garrisons to my island cities. Also observe how Bandits come at me from opposite angles, so that even with railroads I would not be able to defend my mainland from both of them with a single stack. Commodore's idea, I think, is to just hang around there with all these fleets, snipe a city or two if I am not careful (or simply hit a limit of what I am willing to invest into defending a tundra fishing village). And if I am careful - well, to have my army pinned down is already a win, is it not?
A brilliant idea except it is also a complete lunacy.
Putting aside the question of WHY do all of that - this entire plan hangs in the assumption that I have no fleet of my own. This is not exactly true:


A glimpse of my future production:

And, for the sake of completeness, on the power graph it looks like this:

So, there are 58 visible Commodore's Destroyers versus mine 43 total. Note, however, that I will have nine more in two turns which almost puts us to parity. Now, not all my Destroyers are in the war zone, I have some in the north, but they are still much more concentrated than what Commodore has, with two major fleets half a world apart. I could destroy Bandit 2 - the weakest of the three - on this turn already if I did not make a mess with my out of order logins. Besides, I think I should be more ambitious. In just a few turns I will have enough to reliably crush Bandit 1 or Bandit 2.
Bandit 1 I peg as the most dangerous by far. It has a higher share of transports (one of them Morale-promoted) and it was lurking the closest to Commodore's core and was probably regularly resupplied. Unfortunately, it can also hide in Piccadilly's borders where it will be unassailable for six more turns. Also, I am not comfortable with moving my main fleet that far away from Mig. So, it will have to be Bandit 3 which, I think, I have some chance to blindside if Commodore is not careful (and he has not been so far). Worst case scenario, his Destroyers run away and I get to kill the wooden component. Also, I will be able to take Commodore bases in far south.
So, that's how the strategic situation looks like. I will leave it for lurkers to judge how sound is the mind behind this three-pronged attack. Let me now introduce you to costs Commodore had to incur to make this offensive possible.
Food:

Commodore now has less food than he had when our first war started. He has actually been ahead of me at that point, now he has fallen behind - and far behind - not just me but also Pindi and Mig.

Production improved a bit but, once again, others improved it by much more.

GNP - a familiar story.

Victory screen with no Commodore's name anywhere.
So, this is why I do not believe Commodore is trying to win here. If any of the lurkers disagree, then I challenge you to explain me (in the lurker thread, of course) how what I showed here can possibly look like a winning strategy. Even if we assume he would do more harm to me than to himself - he is not losing to me at that point, he is losing to Pindicator and Mig. Let's say I rage-quit and convert to AI - how does Commodore win from here?
And it's not that he did not have alternatives. I mean to hell with Tarkeel - the hammer value I see in the immediate proximity of my territorial waters is sufficient to crash Pindicator. The dude does not even have Rifling yet, his best regular unit is Knight. Make a deal with Mig and rip Sumeria in two - how this is a worse strategic idea than whatever the hell I see on my screen? Commodore quite literally turned himself into Piccadilly-light - only he did it from a semi-winning position and totally unprompted.
Anyway, so, this is the sort of BS I need to deal with in this game.

[Gavagai]

So, riddle me this: why does this city have more of a chance to generate a prophet than a scientist? Scientist points come from The Great Library, prophet points - from Stonehenge. There are no other sources, as you might notice, the city cannot technically run any priest specialists. So - what is going on here?
I also feel 74% for merchant is suspiciously low, most of the bar was filled during the golden age when I ran a million of merchants and even starved down the city for two last turns. And all this against just five base points from non-specialist sources. But probabilities are sometimes counterintuitive. The extra prophet points are really weird though.

[RefSteel]

So, riddle me this: why does this city have more of a chance to generate a prophet than a scientist? Scientist points come from The Great Library, prophet points - from Stonehenge. There are no other sources, as you might notice, the city cannot technically run any priest specialists. So - what is going on here?
I also feel 74% for merchant is suspiciously low, most of the bar was filled during the golden age when I ran a million of merchants and even starved down the city for two last turns. And all this against just five base points from non-specialist sources. But probabilities are sometimes counterintuitive. The extra prophet points are really weird though.

If my understanding is correct (and be aware that my recollection has this tagged "uncertain; unconfirmed") then the way Civ4 Great Person chances are not proportional to contributed Great Person points.  Instead, specialists and buildings may provide GPP and/or influence which Great Person will be born, independently.  So, even though our short-hand is, "Moai provides 1 Great Prophet Point, Stonehenge provides 2, and a Priest spec provides 3," this is actually false:  If my understanding is sound, there is no such thing as a "Great Prophet Point."  Thus, the Carnegie Public Library's "untyped" Great Person Points are just normal ones:  It's just the only thing currently in the game that provides them without also influencing the probabilities of different types.  All other Great Person Point sources (and, so far, only those sources; I would guess that a building could be modded to influence Great Person generation probabilities without providing any points of its own, but I don't know if that's ever been tried) also separately influence the likelihood of each Great Person Type appearing should the threshold ever be crossed.  This influence, to the best of my knowledge, is proportional to the number of turns that the building or specialist has been present since the last time the city generated a Great Person (or since you gained control of the city if it's never done so yet) - regardless of the number of points it generated or any GPP multipliers (e.g. for National Epic or a Golden Age).  I don't know if it includes Anarchy turns in this count.

What this means is, if you have had Moai Statues and the Pyramids in a city that has been running a Scientist specialist continuously since its last GP, it will be getting 6GPP (times multipliers) per turn, but (if I'm right) the chances of Prophet, Engineer, or Scientist would be not 1:2:3 but equal 1:1:1.  Moreover, if you've had Moai + Mids there for 48 turns since your last GP, then start a Golden Age, revolt to Pacifism, and run 7 scientists for 8 turns, you'll have 72 GPP from Moai, 144 GPP from Mids, and 504 GPP from the Scientists, but the chances of each GP type will be 1/3:  56 Moai-turns of prophet influence vs 56 Mids-turns of Engineer influence vs 56 Specialist-turns of Scientist influence.

I think that's how it works, at least!

[El Grillo]

I tested the Moai + Pyramids + scientist scenario, and the interface shows displayed odds of 1:2:3, so I think something else is afoot here.

   

[RefSteel]

Indeed! Thanks for actually testing it, El Grillo! (Looking at Gav's screenshot more closely should have shown I was wrong too, since there should be no way Stonehenge outran GLib in this city since the last time it produced a GP - and in fact under the rules I described, it should have been tied with Nat'l Epic's Artist probability!) Digging around in my memory, I think what I was describing was actually based on something I read about vanilla Civ4 behavior that must have changed in Warlords or BtS. Regardless, that Great Priest percentage is quite a mystery; if I have time, I'll try to further testing and report back what I find.