[PB78] Dreylin boldly goes

[Dreylin]

T153 -

Quick update after some quick turns. Claimed Notre Dame and canceled my incense rental from SD giving me that 5gpt to work with. He indicated a mutual attack on Magic ~t160, I responded with mutual war without the turn counter - not sure I'll be quite ready and don't want to commit to an exact turn. I do intend to declare ... just not first.

CS completed and I revolted to Bureaucracy - also Slavery and Police State. I'm now making just over 100gpt without Wealth builds which is a notable improvement. I'll see if I can get through Feudalism in 5t for Vassalage at the next available switch and play it by ear on the others as the situation suggests.

Now that I'm naturally making >100gpt, I've gone ahead and made Donovan an offer of 100gpt for Sssla - so 1000 gold total. In my estimate it's worth a minimum of 40gpt to me, so around a 20t payoff. I'll see what he thinks, but it could help juice his economy at a key moment.

[Dreylin]

T157 -

Got this from Donovan:


Not sure if this is a warning or a plan / suggestion. I'm probably pretty boned if Gav and I go to war; his mega-stack is on the doorstep of Spock and while I'm growing my large pile of defenders it's not going to be enough.

I sent back that I was planning to declare on Magic around t161 and will see how he responds.

The plan is to go after Little Lamplight again. I have 3 Galleys with 2Trebs, 2Cats, Pike & Crossbow ready; both Mathews and Riker have a Galley pre-built which I'll load with Maces for the first drop-off and can then ferry over more hitters as the defenses are removed. Both cities also have a Trireme queued that will pop the turn after the Galley and cover the attack. He currently has just a single Trireme in the area and one Galley in the Mycale Fort. He has been showing Compass research though, so Caravels are not out of the question soon. I'm also growing a 1-move stack behind Riker which could be deployed for defense or to start rolling towards Marathon.

Of course all of this relies on someone else making the first move against them and drawing attention ... and then on Gavagai not rolling into Spock while I'm distracted. 

[Dreylin]

T160 - the final countdown

Well that was illuminating. Gavagai has been staking out the back end of the turn for a while now, but Superdeath also put off playing to wait for me to end turn. It's 3-way chicken with respective stacks aimed at each other in the Spock/DQ/Silver Web triangle. Neither SD nor Gav can afford to make the first move at risk of a backstab. Unlike their huge piles of 2-movers though, 50% of my "Stack" is defenders piled into Spock. Unfortunately it appears that if anything is going to happen, it will have to be me making the first move.

I sent indications to both of them that I intend to declare in 2t, with Mathews/Riker to indicate I was targeting Little Lamplight. On their side I added war & their city nearest their Magic border. I'd already told Donovan I was attacking t161 so I skipped updating him.

I also made a mistake and moved my trailing Galleys up towards LL this turn, when it should have been next turn. I juggled some of the contents, but then realised that they actually might not be visible unless he did finish Optics. Anyway, we're on the road now.

I'll snap some pictures next turn.

[Dreylin]

T161 - screw clock games

Clock-chicken is just stupid, so I'm going ahead and playing this turn, then next turn I will either take the start or end depending whether Magic has played before I get a chance. If Magic is looking closely he'll see the Galleys in Riker and Mathews anyway, so I don't get any more "surprise" by holding to second half of the turn. Besides, SD & Gav have also both repositioned their forces now:




SD has just moved his Knights & HA up and left his 1-movers in place, while Gavagai has moved both stacks up. This makes sense as he is likely to hit the bulk of Magic's army and need the Cats to break through, but ... it also means he's now 1tile closer to Spock and can hit it with 2-movers or put his Cats outside the city to bombard. It's also worth noting that while SD sent back Copper-Copper, Gavagai sent back nothing.

It's a shame that Gavagai isn't reporting this game; I hope that post-game he will give us a good breakdown of his thoughts right now. I can see arguments for him to attack either of us, though to me it feels like there's a better choice:



Oh yeah, here's an overview of my front:


I've got 2Treb, 2Cat, 4Mace, Pike & X-Bow loaded for drop-off next turn. I can then road the tile 1E of Riker to dump most of the "1t Fort" stack onto the ships to land the following turn along with some HAs from the East. A Chariot will cut the marked road to limit potential counter-attack vectors. Magic's pretty small 2-move stack is a couple of tiles South of the picture, behind Mycale. From tech choice he is likely gearing up Marathon to start Spiral Minaret next turn.

[Dreylin]

Gav just pinged me that he's declared war. I'm interested that he would do it before I have declared on magic and committed to that attack. I guess I'll see what the turn shows; if there's a peace offer - even a fairly punishing one - there's a good chance I'll take it.

More stress on election day ... yay.

[Dreylin]

T162 - part 1

Open the turn and:


This is actually amazing timing as both Riker and Mathews' ports are boxed in by Magic's culture; this frees the ships inside without having to declare war, and will allow me to more easily ferry units across. I accept, but reserve the right to turn around and declare if Gav & I can agree on a peace deal.

Speaking of:


When I said that I would consider a punishing peace offer, I was thinking in terms of cash. If he'd proposed something like 100gpt I would probably have taken it and carried on with my planned attack of Magic, expecting that he'd join in on the dogpile with our respective flanks secured by 10t of Peace. Emotionally I can't agree to hand over Spock without exploring the alternatives.

So what are we dealing with:


22 Knights
26 Horse Archers
5 Maces
6 War Elephants
12 Cats
6 Trebs

So ~60 hitters and 18 Siege.

I have 12 up to date units, 5 older models, and a Castle. With what else I have nearby I can increase that to maybe 20 up-to-date units and a few more out-of-date - let's say less than 30. I could also add maybe a dozen other units between siege and HA to soak up collateral - at the expense of the potential to counter attack.. The following turn I could add at least a half dozen more and again the following turn. The big question is whether he takes the time to bombard, or just throws the collateral in and sucks up the losses? The more I can pile in, the more he needs to bombard, I think.

I don't think that emotionally I can give up Spock without a fight, I mean look at it:

[Dreylin]

Cultural control from Mathews & Scott if Spock should fall.

[T-hawk]

I don't think that emotionally I can give up Spock without a fight, I mean look at it:

For once you have paid the Dane-geld, you never get rid of the Dane.

[Dreylin]

T162 - part 2

The image above shows why I should absolutely have crammed in a crappy filler in this area; the Stone is not in 3rd ring for either Mathews or Scott, so should/could/may revert to blank culture if Spock falls. I've tried to position around that, but it's a balancing act between bringing additional units into theatre and not exposing them.

I dumped everything off the boats that had been positioned against Magic - they are 2t out - and reloaded them from NextGenLand. If I get peace, I can proceed with the attack on Magic with roughly the forces I had planned. Emptied Scott, refilled Scott from Pike, and Pike picked up a unit that was heading South from Chapel. Gav has not made a move in the North, so I pulled my reserves southwards, but left the garrisons in place. HA are stacked SE of Uhura and the siege (not much unfortunately) is stacked in range.



I misjudged on the siege; they should have been retreated to Scott, but they moved here to hook up with some real units coming down from Kirk & Uhura. The forest 2NW of Spock has 2Maces, Pike & 2Axes from Mathews. I took a bit of a risk emptying that city, as Magic could move to snipe - however I can see his 2-move stack with EP vision of Mycale so can reinforce if it looks dodgy. I also have 2 sets of Workers in range incase I need to road those farms.

Dry-whipped a bunch of stuff in places I don't really want to whip, and finally I spent 95g a piece to upgrade 2 Archers to Longbows.

Here's the Peace offer I made:


It's not all, but just /most/ of my gold. Gav is currently showing ~100gpt while presumably accruing away costs, so we'd both probably be making 125gpt if not at war. I'm a few turns away from a civics switch though and with Rep specialists could make it to Guilds during the peace treaty with time to add some knights.

I also offered Peace/War with Magic to make it clear that I'm still up for that option. I will be interested to see how Gavagai responds; whether he carries on after Spock, or concludes that the cash offered and a secure flank are a fair return on investment. I come back to the timing; I clearly indicated my plans to go in this turn, so why not wait until I'm committed before backstabbing? Or maybe he didn't want it to appear to be a backstab? Such a shame he's not reporting; I really want to understand his though process after the game.

Then there's Superdeath; I doubt he goes into Magic without me committing on the opposite flank, so does he see an opening to hit Gav from the side, or to pile into me? On that front though, he and Gav are really angling for the same parts of me so I don't think a pile-on from SD is very likely. I suppose Magic could make a move in the West, but he is still significantly behind in offensive units.

[Dreylin]

T163 -

No response from Gavagai; he took the turn to bombard down to 42%.

I did get diplo from Magic asking again for Stone. I thought about it and countered:


190g is 2 upgrades and so has immediate value to me, whereas any gpt number does not. I added the Sheep, as that was part of our previous health exchange and I now have my own Cows. I did precede this with a Crab-Crab to indicate I have no plans for war with him.

Better diplo from SD; he sent 4t war (last turn) and then this turn he played ahead of me and sent this:


Though I'm not entirely sure why it's going to take him 3 more turns...




For my side I packed what I could get into Spock and braced for impact. All the units I had lined up in NextGen-land have been ferried over, and the bulk of the fleet will now move North to ready for an attack on Diamond City. Siege has been moved into Scott, but I've found a way to get them safely 2tiles from Spock next turn so may reposition again.

Builds are fairly predictable:


Settler in Sulu incase I can still grab that spot before Spock falls ... or if I need to refound Spock. 

I also offered Gavagai the 75gpt Peace Deal again for probably the last time; once he's committed his stack the time for buying off will have gone.