Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[Bigger]

First, the wedding is done. I absolutely nailed the best man speech, if anyone cares. Going out w/ the wedding party tonight, so I should be playing much more starting tom.

btw, if any veteran's are posting in the lurker thread, i would appreciate feedback on my play, so as to improve for WW13 .
Some points:

1. Gasper: I think he has given some very useful advice for newbie villagers. Considering this game is full of newbies (at least, me, commodore, and pindicator - and I'm not sure tasunke doesn't still fit in this category, too) this seems like very poor wolf play. At least, If I was a veteran wolf I would not be giving good advice to green villagers. i realize this could be an attempt at deep cover, but I don't think it would be worth it.

2. I am most interested in the day 1 cat-fight between Rowain and Zak.

Zak switched the 5-5 tie between MNG and Rowain to 6-4, which set off the bandwagon. Then he presumably went to bed leaving MNG to hang. So I'm not sure Zak is the best lynch candidate.

Novice, novice, novice...

MNG was a dead wolf. He would never recover from his position. Don't you think he may have been sacrified by the pack? Why don't give Zak, the very experienced player, a deep cover by changing it to a 6-4 vote?
..

I have tp agree with Ichabod here. The tide was clearly turning to a MNG dogpile when Zak switched, and Zak is sharp enough to pick that up. His switch came right after Uberfish switched to MNG, and my attempted baiting of Zak was clear enough I was going to MNG soon as well. MNG was dead man walking at this point - it wouldn't even have been a sacrifiuce for white wolf Zak to vote for him - it would have just been accepting the inevitable.
Further, Zak's justification of voting for MNG was just weak, imho. Maybe because his only real justification was to appear village?

I think the day one vote would have told us plenty even if MNG had turned out innocent. For one thing, i would have been very suspicious of Rowain. But since MNG was scum, at the very least we know Rowain isn't white wolf. and someone is going to have to give me a pretty convincing argument in the next 60 hours not to put Zakalwe's name in red.

About Gaspar. What I meant with my comment earlier was that he gave no good reason for his Rowain vote. I had no issue with his other votes, but I was kind of waiting for more justification for his Rowain vote, because he said something like "more later, but for now I'll vote Rowain", and then never really elaborated on it (beyond calling me fat). I also don't buy his arguments along the lines of "I wouldn't defend a fellow wolf" (sorry for all the paraphrasing, no time for a wall of quotes). In a pack of 3, I don't think he would have much choice.

I also had a few more thoughts, but I have to cut it short. In short, I agree with Novice about Ichabod and Injera. And nothing has invalidated my case against Rowain yet.

I'll try to find some time for rereading tonight.

Gasper's vote of Rowain was clearly glib, as his only justification was "well Zak voted for my guy, I'll vote for his." I would be more interested in hearing you restate your case against Rowain, if you care to defend yourself. I may have skipped over it too fast with all the wedding junk going on, but I have to admit I didn't really understand why you were targeting Rowain to start with.

[Bigger]

btw, for the macro/math guys out there.
Molach hasn't posted or voted in 72 hours (Mordac - please forgive me if I get the 2 of you confused, your names are too similar. I got Sareln and Seralhc confused constantly when I was reading ww11, as well).

Putting the chances of Molach being a wolf at exactly 5/19 after tonights presumed night wolf kill (or 4 /19 if there is only one tribe, or 5/20 if somehow the wolf-kill is blocked, or whatever) - would it be better for the village, from a purely math standpoint, to lynch him, or to allow him to be mod-killed? That is assuming he doesn't "wake up" suddenly between now and Monday night.

My gut tells me it is better to lynch him, and put off the wolf-hunting for another day, but I don't know for sure.

In a former life I was a semi-professional online poker player, so proper odds interest me - but I try not to do unneccessary math anymore, it hurts my brain.

[novice]

Bigger, Gaspar's newbie advice isn't much of a town tell, since he's giving you conventional wisdom that any vet could share. It's also a way for a wolf to appear helpful and pro-town without having to fabricate accusations.

[pindicator]

Since I haven't been able to log in to the beta servers in a couple hours let's do some more WW work. I know I've been spouting "can't do anything without data" in day one, so I'm using this time to actually compile some data. Getting everybody's votes to look over and I'll post that here when I'm done. Maybe we can suss out some wolves since we know MNG was one.

I have tp agree with Ichabod here. The tide was clearly turning to a MNG dogpile when Zak switched, and Zak is sharp enough to pick that up. His switch came right after Uberfish switched to MNG, and my attempted baiting of Zak was clear enough I was going to MNG soon as well. MNG was dead man walking at this point - it wouldn't even have been a sacrifiuce for white wolf Zak to vote for him - it would have just been accepting the inevitable.

Actually, I'm going to come at this from a different angle, Bigger. Recall how the voting went with MNG. He had an initial surge of votes against him, right after he had his odd display. Then votes went elsewhere, either because people were trying to get different targets, or because they wanted to get information on other people. MNG falls down from the top lynch candidate.

Then I come back and vote MNG up again. Immediately after I start bringin up MNG again I get targeted by Ichabod and Meiz. Perhaps we have some wolves looking out for their packmate, and worrying he may be brought back into the public eye? I'm getting more suspicious of Ichabod, but I need to finish compiling votes and status at the time of voting. Then I'll post the data for everyone to draw their own conclusions from.

post-edit: cross post with novice

[Injera]

For people with more experience with Mafia/WW, is there any sort of standard way these multi-faction games are set up?

[NobleHelium]

Do NOT edit your posts for ANY reason.

[zakalwe]

neither commnodore nor pindicator strike me as wolfish. They have the same problem I do: they are green and perhaps aren't really sure who to vote for, but they still hafta play!

I was switching to MNG regardless. Rowain seems to have put himself out on a limb linking MNG and zak. If someone is going to put himself out there, I say let him. Lynching MNG may give us information about Rowain AND Zakalwe.

and besides that, there is a stronger argument for MNG than anyone else, imo.

MNG

I can believe you nailed the best man's speech, Bigger. That's a pretty slick way to bus your buddy while setting me up for the fall. "I was switching to MNG regardless." Of course you were... right after I switched and made it 6-4. Before that, it was tied 5-5, but MNG had not voted yet and could save himself. He was not lost until I made the switch.

If I'm on MNG's team, why did I suddenly abandon the Tasunke wagon after successfully pushing him well into the lead?

[Rowain]

If I'm on MNG's team, why did I suddenly abandon the Tasunke wagon after successfully pushing him well into the lead?

Because I was pushing MNG and you wanted to get rid of me thats why you switched from Tasunke to me.

[Injera]

To add to that:

They certainly did follow me when I voted for Tasunke. Now let's see who will follow me onto Rowain.

I'm just saying that players who were willing to pressure Tasunke for reasonably flimsy reasons should hopefully be equally willing to help me pressure Rowain, for IMHO less flimsy reasons.

Pretty non-chalant about your ability to move the votes around. You were confident you could get a big lead on someone else, too. If you were trying to save MNG then getting a second villager on board would make it easier to protect MNG and hide wolf votes.

I'm not saying Rowain and Tasunke are definite villagers, nor accusing you of doing that, but it's not implausible.

[uberfish]

MNG's team could probably see the writing on the wall when I switched tbh. He didn't even bother to defend himself.