[PB64] Lurking Randomly

[Charriu]

Based on my data I see no reason to end this game by y concession right now. Of course Amicalola is in the best position right now. But Naufraggar and Superdeath together with Commodore could bring him down after Ginger

[Mjmd]

To be fair Ginger only thinks Nauf has conceded and doesn't understand Naufs thought process ( I mean to be fair that is hard to do a lot of times).

[Psillycyber]

Yeah, I don't really see where Ginger is getting the idea that Nauf wants to concede. Maybe some wishful thinking because Ginger suddenly wants to be done with this game? But I hope Ginger steps back and, for example, looks at what a sport Gavagai has been, staying in the game despite having no realistic chance of winning. Sometimes it helps to mentally reframe one's goals in this sort of situation as, "Try to not be the first eliminated" and then the game can become mildly interesting again. But it is difficult to make that mental shift when just 2 turns ago you had high hopes for attaining a dominant lead and using your cannon tech advantage that you'd been looking forward to for over 10 turns previously.

I think this game also decisively shows that having the best (and most) stack defenders is way more important than having the heaviest hitters. Because collateral is so decisive in this game, any follow-up hitters will do as long as you bring along ENOUGH hitters and can protect them and your siege from the enemy first strike. I almost wonder if there could have been a way for Ginger to put his harassment stack in the same general area as his main stack, and make the harassment stack seem like just enough of a credible threat to get SD to expend all the catapults and heavy hitters to take it out, and have knights and cannons ready to swoop in on the next turn and finish off SD's wounded hitters. I don't think that would have worked either, at least without Ginger having even more knights and having a better cultural border setup.

Geography like in this game where there are huge, evenly-split noman's lands in between each side basically make it impossible to go on the offense (and survive the other side's first-strike collateral-damage active defense) unless there is a truly gargantuan military/tech disparity (like there is right now between Ginger and Commodore thanks to Ginger getting his main stack wiped). Ginger probably had to either sit tight (which would have meant falling further behind in tech vs. Amica and Nauf over the long term) or try to snipe cities with ships while keeping the main stack at home. Tough call. Perhaps there was no good way forward for Ginger, at least as long as he was a perceived leader. If Ginger could have joined on the other side of a 3 vs. 1 on someone else, it would have been a different story. But the cannons (incorrectly) made him look like a runaway that needed to be stopped. (And now we know that cannons on their own don't really enable going on the offense, especially when you have to cross an enemy culture's noman's land and won't get to use your own cannons' collateral anyways).

[Mousey]

Geography like in this game where there are huge, evenly-split noman's lands in between each side basically make it impossible to go on the offense (and survive the other side's first-strike collateral-damage active defense) unless there is a truly gargantuan military/tech disparity (like there is right now between Ginger and Commodore thanks to Ginger getting his main stack wiped).  Ginger probably had to either sit tight (which would have meant falling further behind in tech vs. Amica and Nauf over the long term) or try to snipe cities with ships while keeping the main stack at home.  Tough call.  Perhaps there was no good way forward for Ginger, at least as long as he was a perceived leader.  If Ginger could have joined on the other side of a 3 vs. 1 on someone else, it would have been a different story.  But the cannons (incorrectly) made him look like a runaway that needed to be stopped.  (And now we know that cannons on their own don't really enable going on the offense, especially when you have to cross an enemy culture's noman's land and won't get to use your own cannons' collateral anyways).

Honestly I think Ginger's biggest mistake this game was going after Comm. It was somewhat understandable the first time, but ever since then he's been so fixated on the idea that Comm would 100% want revenge that he made it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Comm is generally pretty pragmatic with geopolitics, was never going to be much of a competitor with his land, yet is a VERY spiky player to invade.

I don't think there was a way out of his current geopolitical situation without going back to at least the second Comm war and avoiding it from there. It would have left Comm more open to pressuring Amica or even potentially nipping at the corners of SD/Nauf, while giving Ginger a bit more leeway with heading east instead of making it a 100% dogpile situation.

[Magic Science]

Honestly I think Ginger's biggest mistake this game was going after Comm.

Surely his biggest mistake was offering a Peace Treaty when he did in that first war? According to Commodore, Ginger would have captured the capital and everything else on the mainland if he kept going.

[Mousey]

Honestly I think Ginger's biggest mistake this game was going after Comm.

Surely his biggest mistake was offering a Peace Treaty when he did in that first war? According to Commodore, Ginger would have captured the capital and everything else on the mainland if he kept going.

Kinda? But that would have also permanently burned the bridge with Comm even more than Ginger's later wars did AND dragged Ginger's focus west for a small handful of vulnerable cities. Getting the Colossus would have been good but IMO at the cost of having much earlier contention with Nauf/Amica... eh

[Zed-F]

Ginger is just too tilted and tunnel visioned to properly appreciate where the other players are coming from.
Comm would absolutely be interested in helping Nauf with Amicola, if Ginger weren't an existential threat that has cannons and requires his full attention.
Nauf -- we'll he's sort of figured out the idea there, that Nauf needs to motivate Comm to act against Amicola, and defanging Ginger is the way to do that. I don't think Nauf care as much about the gains in Ginger lands as he is hoping to refocus Comm's attention. (And Nauf is well aware that Ginger will trade to get iron.)

[pindicator]

100gpt for iron sure sounds like he's tilting. He probably thinks he's going to king-make for Amicalola. Unfortunate reaction

[Krill]

Honestly I think Ginger's biggest mistake this game was going after Comm.

Surely his biggest mistake was offering a Peace Treaty when he did in that first war? According to Commodore, Ginger would have captured the capital and everything else on the mainland if he kept going.

I'd have said so. If Nauf had gone in as well it would have meant Colossus in a border city, if nauf hadn't, then he could have had a buffer city and the issue was cost (although in hindsight Ginger needed every build queue he could get). But given that it would have opened up the northern continent for conquest Ginger would have had units in the area anyway so it would have been relatively safe (unlike the Nauf conquests).

The big question now is if Ginger can get his remaining stack healed. By my count it was still larger than SD's stack but it was battered. If it gets attacked again before it can heal then it might get wiped out and then Ginger is a goner. The correct defence might be similar to Pindicators defense against dtay from PB18, to give up cities and hope to capture them back...

[Magic Science]

Did anyone ever think that Ginger would be eliminated from the game before Gavagai?