[Spoilers]PBEM5m Commodore shows the full Monty

[Commodore]

[SIZE="5"]Turns 81-85, Pushing[/SIZE]

So if you can recall during the last turnset there was a sordid little drama wherein I tried to take out the worker quarrying stone and Gaspar managed to clear out my axe and spear pestering at the cost of two of his chariots. I had a stack of three chariots wandering nearby, so I poked them near his quarry again, hoping to disrupt the worker. Jackpot, I was going to be able to pillage, that’s six worker turns down the drain.



But when I poked the pillager onto the quarry, I spotted something else. Huh…mounted units sure are poor defenders, aren’t they? The C1 chariot (all three were C1) got only 18% odds on that horse archer, but the chariot-to-chariot battle would be a coinflip 50% battle…either should damage their target enough for the follow-up to be above 90%...call it a two in three chance of razing the city.



So I sent them in,
C1 chariot vs. C2 horse archer, 18% odds…LOSE and do a bit less damage than hoped.
C1 chariot vs. C1 chariot, 50% odds…WIN.
C1 chariot vs. C2 damage horse archer, 90.3% odds…



WIN!

Naturally, I couldn’t keep the city, but that had to be a blow to Gaspar’s morale. Spain’s UU is a mounted unit that gets defensive bonuses, but that doesn’t mean all her mounted do.



All this massively opens up the southern front. I’m halfway tempted to settle on the plains hill 2S of the stone, it’s a strong defensive site and would nicely turn up the pressure once its borders popped. That’s probably a bit ambitious, though.



Especially as I’m already working on another ambitious push. Turn 81 saw a big 3-pop whip for a settler out of Hugh Ron. A library could probably profitably go here, but for now it’s going to keep with the mines and whips. The extra citizen being a 1h/1g/3b priest isn’t terrible, though.



So, anyone care to guess where the swap to those awesome Representation specialists occurred? I think I’ve finally redressed the imbalance that Gaspar managed earlier, although I still fear his bulbing potential if he can swing it.



Certainly, with longbows soon appearing the era of offensively razing things with raiders is rapidly growing to a close. On the other hand, sticking it into my own lands will be intensely painful too, thanks to all these:



An argument could be made that I should sit back and tech now, using my massive GNP advantage to ensure I get all the upcoming “first” goodies and try to move in around the maces era. That’s dull though…and I’d really rather get Gaspar in the defensive mindset, that power is still scary.



It’s not like I’m not actively building in the back-lines, either. The awesome lake fish tile is already powering Seminal towards its granary, and a cheap barrack will soon follow. Depressingly, I’ve had no free spreads thus far, so the place is still uncultured.



The other awesome rear location, claiming clams and second copper, is slated for a settler from Creak as soon as she can. The worker force is going to road as much as they can of this place beforehand. The scout will check out the area to see if moving Tutsi 1N would harm anything.



Another location for a filler spot is this ugly snow area. The deer is enough to support a pair of scientists, so I will settle it, but it’s not a priority. 1NW of deer would get a crapton of forests, though…possibly a good place to chop out a wonder. What wonder, I wonder…



Anyway, neither of those sites comes first. Nope, the settlement I just made is this lovely one. The mini-stack that has been staring at me with beady eyes has flown the coop, leaving behind a token force. I expect a battle around here soon, but as long as I come out even, I come out ahead. In deadly ground, attack.



This new city did almost put me into the hole, economically. I’d like to adopt OR and chop Stonehenge into Arrow Wok, but it’s going to be hard…check out my income at 0% tech! I hear the HRE has some sort of overpowered UB, though, and since I needed CoL soon anyway, I swapped toward rathausi.



Let’s hope the gamble pays off, eh?

[mackoti]

Nice.

[NobleHelium]

Pretty sure that was like a 1/3 chance of razing the city at most. Your optimism is ridiculous.

[SevenSpirits]

Pretty sure that was like a 1/3 chance of razing the city. Your optimism is ridiculous.

Not quite convinced. What do you think the average odds of the third attacker on a unit that survived the first attack would be? I wouldn't be surprised if it's close to 90%. Say it's 80%. (This will provide a rough result much more easily than figuring out the exact odds.)

The odds of killing off at least one unit with the first two chariots is 1 - (.82 * .5). That times .8 is only just under 50%.

[NobleHelium]

Okay, you're right. The odds are better than 1/3.

[Commodore]

Pretty sure that was like a 1/3 chance of razing the city at most. Your optimism is ridiculous.

I was overzealous, but not insane. I was figuring, like Seven says, there was a 59% chance of killing a defender with one of the first two attackers, and then a "sure thing" (obviously not, but I suspect the odds on the damaged victim were more likely to be above 90% than below) to kill the wounded one, which seemed closer to 2 in 3 than 1 in 2. It was closer to 50%, but not a "ridiculous" shot either.

[Mardoc]

I was overzealous, but not insane. I was figuring, like Seven says, there was a 59% chance of killing a defender with one of the first two attackers, and then a "sure thing" (obviously not, but I suspect the odds on the damaged victim were more likely to be above 90% than below) to kill the wounded one, which seemed closer to 2 in 3 than 1 in 2. It was closer to 50%, but not a "ridiculous" shot either.

Well, and equally important - if you lost, you lost probably three units while killing one. If you won, you lost one unit, killed two and a city and got your psychological dominance. Expected value there is definitely positive.

Since it appears you need more names, some thoughts:
Mow Hawk (too obvious?)
All Gone Quinn
Chippy Wah

[Commodore]

[SIZE="5"]Turns 86-89, Defensive[/SIZE]

So I was curious, after all the skirmishing and the aggressive settle, what sort of city Gaspar had into between the peaks. Satyr Nonsense has a reasonable garrison, nothing all that special but still respectable.

[img] http://dl.dropbox.com/u/28594063/5mT89/C...ot0250.JPG[/img]

Thanks to the joys of Theocracy my little explorer spear is woodsman II, so I was also able to check out Satyr’s rear (ewww). Ah, there you are little longbow. I figured we’d be seeing more of your sort around here.



I’m glad to be pushing back Gaspar’s borders, the back-lines are a bit…lacking. Tootsie will be moved 1N, I think, and that foul wasteland will continue to rot until the end of time. I think we’re on a planet that’s tidally locked with a somewhat distant sun (probably a red dwarf), and this narrow strip is the only place warm enough for a hydrosphere.



Tiny or not, this world gets expensive. Because I need the science, as well as needing to deny it to Mr. Philo, Sue is working hard on making the Great Library. If I manage to take it, it’s game over, man. I would love to swap over to OR to speed things up, but Gaspar is making that a little difficult.



Not unsurprisingly, the spear I had sitting on the corn was sniped by a Gasponian axe. It took less damage than I’d prefer, and then he covered it with a horse archer. That would not do.



Unfortunately the strength of the shock HA meant that my axes weren’t getting odds on either unit, so I sent in a shock spear to try and get a lucky shot it. It didn’t win, of course.



The mop-up spear and axe did just fine, though, so I was still up ten hammers on the exchange, well worth it for keeping Gaspar on-edge. I checked out the city again, trying to figure if I had a shot at it.



Unfortunately, whatever shot I did have wasn’t going to be my main concern, as Gaspar’s big stack of 2-movers finally showed up, four horse archers and three chariots. Nice milestone to reach in the middle of an invasion, eh?



No matter, we could deal with this. I dry-whipped in a spear at Hugh Ron, microing things so that overflow would complete another one the turn after. On a hill, with 40% cultural defenses…yeah, I’ll upgrade the warrior there too.



Evidently, Gaspar did not like the look of things, because he moved on further, sheltering in the bend of the river north of my furs. That wouldn’t do…I tossed a spear into the furs hoping to draw a response and kept on pumping the spears. Creak is the same thing as Hugh, 40% culture and on a hill.



Gaspar evidently decided I needed still more pressure, so he also reinforced the stack still staring with hostility at Arrow Wok. I might have enough to take Satyr even with his longbows there, but not enough to take it and still cover Arrow Wok.



What Gaspar fortunately does not know is that if he’d hung around Hugh Ron he could have pillaged my only connected source of copper. This would not do at all, of course. I hired a couple more scientists and finished up iron working, hoping for a mine already hooked up.




No such luck. Ah well, at least I think I have enough spears now. How’s this for a paranoid reaction to an early HBR? A strong axe push would doom me…so glad he’s not near Machinery yet.



Purty good, eh?

[Commodore]

[SIZE="5"]Turns 90-94, Riposte[/SIZE]

Well, after all that worry, the next turn Gaspar moved his stack onto the wooded plains hill NW of Creak. Unfortunately for him, once again, not all Spanish two-movers get defensive bonuses.



I crashed a couple of my formation spears into the shock horse archers, then a couple fast woodie II spears from the west to take out the others. I also tried my hand at taking out a chariot with a formation axe (again, ~75%), but that had its usual lack of success.



It's a good thing I got the Great General. Gaspar has a terrible habit of killing off every unit that manages to achieve 10xp before I can promote them. So, I tossed him on the most back-line unit I had, a sentry chariot.



Unlocking the HE via general is good, because there certainly isn't a lot of movement I could generate on the Arrow Wok/Culture Nonsense front. That's a lot of longbows there, Gaspar!



As you can see above, I was comfortable enough to swap back into OR. With a priest specialist, I was able to micro another turn off the due date in the capital with the Great Library.



The other appeal of OR is that it makes more buildings whip-able. The HRE starting techs are bad, it's not a great civ, but never doubt that the Rathaus is incredibly strong. Before:



And after, play find the differences:



Of course, there was one other little benefit that came from OR. Each missionary doesn't just spread the bonus of religion, but it also +1 got in Creak. Shoe Show Knee's here is slated for Arrow Wok.



Gaspar, in despair, tossed the remaining three chariots at my marble spear, but the brave lad managed to hold them all off.



The Heroic Epic is saved! Gaspar, in the immortal words of Tatan, has thus accomplished negative things. This epic is for all of you guys, though, who died before they could be immortalized or even promoted. <taps>



I finally have more solider points than Gaspar. It's all in nice, inoffensive spears though. Let's hope they all get nicely experienced before it's time to upgrade them into landsknechts.



Next stage is the culture push. I'm going to settle in the grassland 6S of Arrow Wok as well. Looking good, neh?



The culture situation is improving in Arrow Wok now too. I'm pleased with the timing here, I grew in time to whip walls. The next turn, the forest was chopped, overflow dumped, and Judaism spread...finishing Stonehenge perfectly.



Finished something else the same turn too.



I finally settled the backline copper, too, thanks to Mardoc for getting me thinking in the right direction for this name. This is going to be a classical supporting city, but for all that, a worthwhile one. Gaspar did well to settle this back area quickly.



Gaspar is giving one last huzza before my advantages start to snowball too much, and it's a good one. How about two or three MoM, Philo-powered golden ages? This is going to hurt, I need pikes online yesterday.



His research is up to snuff, and the MFG is more than a little scary. Before too long I think my food advantage will tell out, but 27 turns of golden age is going to be hard to match.



Steady as she goes...

[Commodore]

[SIZE="5"]Turns 95-99, Crushing Victories[/SIZE]

Gaspar's golden age was worrying me, so I figured I needed to worry him back. His exploratory axe poked a nose out of his city, so I decided to knock it back with the incoming GG chariot. None of that nonsense, Mr. Par!



So, of course, I needed to cover the victorious general after his rash charge left him a wee bit exposed. Sure, I'll road the corn and toss some troops in. That's a big garison though. Probably more than I could safely attack.



After a quick check of the odds...yeah, that would be a no. So, I'll withdraw back to Arrow Wok.



This makes me sad, but fortunately I have woodsman II spears to cheer myself up. Gaspar poked a horse archer around below Arrow and Ear, probably figuring he was safe. I'm Montezuma, man, don't you know to be on the lookout for these shenanigans? It's not just jaguars, Theocratic barracks-trained spears are two-movers around here too.



Found an uncovered worker with my scout, too. Now that seems like a perfect oppertunity for a woodie duece...oh yeah, I have one in the neighborhood.



That deer forest looks interesting too...I wonder...yep. Sadly, the archer on the hill would stop me from taking the city, but Gaspar's gold was pillaged while the scout moved on block sheep usage. This is annoying Gaspar, but the real psy-ops was taking place northward.



Stonehenge paid off, giving me cultural control of the surrounding area very solidly. Let's see, there's a surly stack glaring at Arrow Wok too far away from Satyr Nonsense for support, a pair of workers near my city, and entirely to many units in my city. Let's fix that, eh?



I considered trying for Culture War, but crossbows online against my spears and axes means that even with cats a city on a hill isn't taking the fall. At this point, though, Gaspar is talking about conceding.



I don't think the conclusion is foregone, but it's certainly not much in doubt either. Here's the effect of my UB, due to the Tiny script size even the small empire has steep costs...which a rathaus will basically wipe out. More and more of them are coming online, too, each three-pop whipable with only five hammers in thanks to OR.



Plus, the Great Library, Pyramids, and National Epic are now all online in the capital, so I'm almost Philosophical myself. Education or Philosphy bulb? Nice to have the choice, either is one tech away.



I think Gaspar is about to concede, either way I'll update for turn 100 though. Been a blast of a duel!