[SPOILERS] Small Wunders and Izzy of Inca: The fat lady sings

[MindyMcCready]

Two axes were killed, the second one at 50%. So we had good luck on this front at least.

Great. Do we have a spear or at least an archer protecting the axe?

Now that we have a larger military we must leverage it or its simply a liability.

I don't know, retep is still dead in the long game. We have more military than him, soon to be 4 cities, and his third city is absolutely attrocious. I don't see why we have to be desperate enough to pay 80 gold for 1 axe.

We're pretty dead in the long-game if you haven't noticed. :LOL: It won't be long at all until other civs are at 7 cities while we have 4. And if it comes down to 80g to save our isolated gold-corn city, well let's just say that you'll receive a much bigger 'told-you-so' than the one I'm holding back about not choking retep back when it was quecha vs archer.

I don't know why you wouldn't want to save gold since we're not going to complete math without a pause anyway. And the intertemporal value of getting to math earlier only matter if we plan on clearcutting. Personally, I'd want to clearcut when we get construction and then deal decisively with Retep if we can survive that long. (When we lose a city, the vultures will start circling).

I think that you need to reconsider your metagame. Retep has done nothing but grow as a threat and that's not going to change and yet you continue to speak of him as some type of past concern. You shouldn't do that while he's taking our cities :LOL:. I personally don't understand why he wants to throw down with an equivalent power rather than beat up the hapless Bacchus, but he's doing it. And if he's doing it when he had many disadvantages, he's going to keep doing it when he's got +1 cities to us.

Metagame-wise I think that we need to avoid further conflict with Ichabod and focus all of our attention on holding off and then killing off Retep.

Yeah, it has become very clear why he was desperate for horse immediately: He needs to defend a full-on counterattack. I think he's building chariots in his capital and his first one will finish next turn.

Yeah, I thought about that on the weekend and realized how badly I/we called that. Even before reading your post I realized that the horses plant was for speed to go on an immediate attack. We were talking about denying a city site and building a settler while we really should have been preparing for his all-in. Feel like I provided bad analysis and advice on that one. Sorry.

Retep moved the 6 axes next to Carmen (no surprises). My plan is to retreat the CG1 archer to William, and the spear to Barbiere. Any thoughts? We have enough in the east to defend if he keeps going forward. Unfortunately he can now use our road network around there.

I agree with the CG1 move. The spear to Barbiere is more debatable. WilliamTell won't be able to produce or whip it's own spear for quite some time. If Retep keeps Carmen, then he'll have his 6 axes + chariot reinforcements to take a stab at WilliamTell. If we have gold we might be able to upgrade the quechas to spears. Did I mention that you should save gold? Anyway, you should save gold.

Scenario 1: Retep keeps Carmen and we counter-attack.
In the event that Retep tries to keep Carmen (and why attack if you're not going to keep cities?) then we may want to go on the offensive. If we go on the offensive those axes in WilliamTell won't be able to join the battle without a spear defender. Move the spear to WilliamTell.

Scenario 2: Retep razes Carmen & attacks WilliamTell
Spear in William Tell would be very good in this Sceanrio in case we see Chariot reinforcements. But we could simply be outnumbered by axes. In that case saving gold to upgrade the Quechas would also be really good. You should save gold.

Event/Option 3: Retep holds Carmen and we go on the offensive vs Horse city.
Well we might want to send the spear to Barbiere in this case to lead the invasion. Prepare a fork attack on capital and then divert off towards the horse city to neutralize his mobility advantage. Our odds of a city raze are very high if we fork his capital. In this case WilliamTell won't have a spear defender so it would be good if we had some spare cash onhand to upgrade the quechas to an axe if he sends all 6 axes in or upgrade to a spear if chariots make an appearance in that direction. Did I mention that you should save gold? You should save gold.

Did you miss me on the weekend? :LOL:

I think that we'll have to make more solid plans after we see what he does with Carmen. But for now I think that the spear should go to WilliamTell. We fought hard for that city site and (soon) will have sacrificed much. Add some chariots to that 6 axe stack and we could lose that city as well.

Yeah, it has become very clear why he was desperate for horse immediately: He needs to defend a full-on counterattack. I think he's building chariots in his capital and his first one will finish next turn.

Just a second point on this. I'm not so sure that he's trying to prevent a counter-attack rather than pushing for more 'attack'. We haven't said boo to him yet offensively so he's proably drawing up a personality profile on that. He's also making good of the old adage 'best defense is a good offense'. If he razes Carmen, I expect his chariots to show up at our next point of vunerability --> WilliamTell. If that happens (and we surprise with some cash upgrades) we might be able to take a run at the horse city while successfully defending both WilliamTell and Barbiere.

[WilliamLP]

Great. Do we have a spear or at least an archer protecting the axe?

There's an archer on the tile, yeah.

We're pretty dead in the long-game if you haven't noticed.

Vs Ichabod, yes. Vs retep or Bacchus, no way.

:LOL: It won't be long at all until other civs are at 7 cities while we have 4. And if it comes down to 80g to save our isolated gold-corn city, well let's just say that you'll receive a much bigger 'told-you-so' than the one I'm holding back about not choking retep back when it was quecha vs archer.

The second "I told you so" has no resonance with me, so go for it! Two things I will never ever do in Civ 4: 1. Initiate an early war that I'm not 100% sure I can profit from. 2. Use the clock to gain an advantage. (I'll always play as soon as I see the turn roll.) We beat to death that issue at the time, besides.

I can't get in support of "when behind, get further behind". Why is 80 gold for 20 hammers a good value right now? We have a city that can produce 20 hammers per turn and pump more axes than Retep can beat.

I don't know why you wouldn't want to save gold since we're not going to complete math without a pause anyway.

Yes we are.

And the intertemporal value of getting to math earlier only matter if we plan on clearcutting.

I do. 30 hammers soon is worth a lot more than 30 hammers later, all things equal.

Personally, I'd want to clearcut when we get construction and then deal decisively with Retep if we can survive that long. (When we lose a city, the vultures will start circling).

Insert joke about how we haven't met Sumeria yet.

I think that you need to reconsider your metagame. Retep has done nothing but grow as a threat and that's not going to change and yet you continue to speak of him as some type of past concern. You shouldn't do that while he's taking our cities :LOL:. I personally don't understand why he wants to throw down with an equivalent power rather than beat up the hapless Bacchus, but he's doing it. And if he's doing it when he had many disadvantages, he's going to keep doing it when he's got +1 cities to us.

One of his cities is crap, one of them (if he holds it) isn't very defensible, and we are settling in 3 turns.

He has no commerce, that's why he's dead. Commerce is king in this kind of game. He's letting his southern neighbour dominate him with borders. We have a larger army than him, and a higher production! I'm really trying to understand why you don't think time is on our side vs him.

I'm not quite sure what you want to do that's different? Surely you don't want to run unprotected axes around right now?

Metagame-wise I think that we need to avoid further conflict with Ichabod and focus all of our attention on holding off and then killing off Retep.

I don't think I disagree! But if Ichabod settles another city next to us that can be razed by 2 axes, it's going to get razed by two axes.

I agree with the CG1 move. The spear to Barbiere is more debatable. WilliamTell won't be able to produce or whip it's own spear for quite some time. If Retep keeps Carmen, then he'll have his 6 axes + chariot reinforcements to take a stab at WilliamTell. If we have gold we might be able to upgrade the quechas to spears. Did I mention that you should save gold? Anyway, you should save gold.

I disagree with being stuck in the bronze age forever, and always will. I also disagree with valuing one hammer over 4 gold, and will continue to do so.

The reason to move the spear home would be to have the option of moving an offensive axe stack around sooner without it being suicide. But I can see having it east as well.

[MindyMcCready]

I strongly disagree. He's got no GNP! We're going to have 2 gold and 1 silver. Those three tiles nearly research more than his whole empire.

'Those them eggs there are CHICKENS!'

We don't have the silver yet; we could lose our second gold; Retep has a silver in his horse BFC. He also has the mobility to disconnect our resources. Our advantages are not that compelling.

Also, research ability that doesn't translate into power in the here-and-now isn't so valuable to us as you're estimating. We're not going to be landing wonders with our military demands and we have the resources for a high happy already. We're going to be hard pressed to invest in non-critical infrastructure while having 2 contested fronts so tech isn't going to be such a huge advantage there until after Retep's gone.

Also, military battles are more about 2:1 than unit tech. 2 x 35H axes or 1 x 70H mace? They're different in terms of maintenace but not so much in the field of battle. And the few instances in future history when it really matters you've never sounded 100% sold on leveraging that tech advantage. So what's the point of tech (somewhat facetiously)?

No, but we're at least up 12k power on him now.

So,...what are we going to do with that advantage?

Yeah, unfortunately anything that moves out right now without a spear in the stack is really foolish.

Here you go:

More seriously, once we see what happens to Carmen, we'll have to discuss options including how many turns until we can get construction online; whether to convert the forests to cats; whether to immediately convert the forests to axes/spears; and/or whether to convert those forests into other. And relatedly, if we try the contain and outgrow, how well will we be able to hold the militarily-dedicated Retep and not end up like PB5 Cynehead vs Commodore or PB8 Scooter vs Commodore.

[WilliamLP]

We don't have the silver yet; we could lose our second gold; Retep has a silver in his horse BFC. He also has the mobility to disconnect our resources. Our advantages are not that compelling.

Maybe he'll work that silver with a city that is stagnant at size 2? Ok then... It will take him forever to get to size 2 anyway!

Also, military battles are more about 2:1 than unit tech. 2 x 35H axes or 1 x 70H mace?

How does cost efficiency look for 6 axes and 1 cat in the open field vs 6 axes? A lot better!

They're different in terms of maintenace but not so much in the field of battle. And the few instances in future history when it really matters you've never sounded 100% sold on leveraging that tech advantage. So what's the point of tech (somewhat facetiously)?

Defending more against less is a fine way to leverage, if nothing else. A city with 1 cat in it is very hard to take with ancient units.

So,...what are we going to do with that advantage?

Like we agree, it depends on whether he tries to keep Carmen. If he does, we raise 10-15 axes and hit him there probably.

More seriously, once we see what happens to Carmen, we'll have to discuss options including how many turns until we can get construction online; whether to convert the forests to cats; whether to immediately convert the forests to axes/spears;

I'm for the second one, also including a barracks which helps us a lot in Turandot. I'm confused why you're a long term investor with respect to forests, and a short term slasher with respect to gold.

Having math earlier has many advantages: A faster terrace in the new horse city. And 10 hammers more for every reactive chop everywhere.

[MindyMcCready]

2. Use the clock to gain an advantage. (I'll always play as soon as I see the turn roll.) We beat to death that issue at the time, besides.

I admire and agree with your principles.

Two things I will never ever do in Civ 4: 1. Initiate an early war that I'm not 100% sure I can profit from.

This one I have more trouble understanding. Clearly, when measured as absolute profit we were never going to benefit by choking Retep. However, it's debatable that we wouldn't have 'profited' as measured relative to our current position. It seems like you strictly stick to the one measure and I'm not so sure that that's the right calculation that you should declare it as a 'never do'.

We can park this discussion into the 'far' future when this game is over.

I can't get in support of "when behind, get further behind". Why is 80 gold for 20 hammers a good value right now? We have a city that can produce 20 hammers per turn and pump more axes than Retep can beat.

You know, its just not about that at all. We seem to have differences in how we measure things. If 6 axes + 2 chariots are next to WilliamTell in the next 3-4 turns then the calculation that I see is 80 gold versus the 100H for the WilliamTell settler + the army that we get to have survive in WilliamTell + the value of working the gold before we can resettle (if we can resettle) that city + the value of the extra city size that we would have lost.

Obviously, 80g for 20hammers is a terrible exchange in anything other than an emergency. In an emergency it's the best exchange you could possibly have. Nothing is forcing you into that exchange if it's not beneficial and you can always burn the gold buffer on 100% science if its not needed.

It would be nice if we could strictly look at the output of Turandot, but our unit positioning is going to be a huge factor after we lose Carmen. I'm not sure why you consider WilliamTell so safe that this calculation couldn't come up.

I don't know why you wouldn't want to save gold since we're not going to complete math without a pause anyway.

Yes we are.

Interesting.

And the intertemporal value of getting to math earlier only matter if we plan on clearcutting.

I do. 30 hammers soon is worth a lot more than 30 hammers later, all things equal.

Interesting,...and not the discounted present value calculation.

(When we lose a city, the vultures will start circling).
Insert joke about how we haven't met Sumeria yet.

I'm not quite sure what you want to do that's different? Surely you don't want to run unprotected axes around right now?

I want to kill something! His horse city or capital have few if any defenders. We have more power than he does. We have a pretty good (but not great) chance of holding WilliamTell (but it might require a cash upgrade) while sending our army over to go and hurt him.

Alternatively, if he keeps Carmen, we have a very good chance of whip-chopping out enough axes to retake that city. THEN, I'll believe that we're in a strong enough relative position to dominate him long-term.

Right now, I'm a little concerned that you'll turn those forests into workers + settlers which will mean thinning our defenses and allowing Retep some more opportunities. Its the best play against a Retep that's playing to win, but not necessarily against a retep that's playing for fun. It'll also hurt our chances of a retep wipe out come catapults.

I don't think I disagree! But if Ichabod settles another city next to us that can be razed by 2 axes, it's going to get razed by two axes.

I suspect that the next city that he settles will be fully defended. He's going to consider us a 'mad-dog' once he sees that we're willing to lose a city to kill his off. Reputation established.

[WilliamLP]

Two things I will never ever do in Civ 4: 1. Initiate an early war that I'm not 100% sure I can profit from.

This one I have more trouble understanding. Clearly, when measured as absolute profit we were never going to benefit by choking Retep. However, it's debatable that we wouldn't have 'profited' as measured relative to our current position. It seems like you strictly stick to the one measure and I'm not so sure that that's the right calculation that you should declare it as a 'never do'.

We may have had a better position relative to Retep than now. I'm not sure! (We disagree on how far we are ahead of him - I think a lot.) But if our two teams had a peaceful coexistence both Retep and I would be in a better standing relative to Ichabad, Bacchus, and the rest of the world. Basically I will never "defect" in the Prisoner's Dilemma in an opening game of Civ 4. I'm even fine with this game being a demonstration of that so I can do better in future games, lol. And it should hopefully also be a demonstration that I'm not so nooby as to fail to defend so badly that someone won't throw away their game when attacking.

You know, its just not about that at all. We seem to have differences in how we measure things. If 6 axes + 2 chariots are next to WilliamTell in the next 3-4 turns then the calculation that I see is 80 gold versus the 100H for the WilliamTell settler + the army that we get to have survive in WilliamTell + the value of working the gold before we can resettle (if we can resettle) that city + the value of the extra city size that we would have lost.

On a hill I actually think we can hold fine vs 6 axes and 2 chariots. We have at least 3 axes, 3 archers (1 CG1) and a couple of quechuas, plus we could chop something with 3 workers there. Meanwhile Retep is paying unit supply for them while he runs around. I'm fine with that scenario.

And yeah, if he runs the axes further east, we should be trying our best to counterattack him, to at least pillage some roads and improvements and set him further back.

It would be nice if we could strictly look at the output of Turandot, but our unit positioning is going to be a huge factor after we lose Carmen. I'm not sure why you consider WilliamTell so safe that this calculation couldn't come up.

The calculation should come up! It's a nice defensive city though and right now we have an easier time defending than he has attacking, imo.

Interesting,...and not the discounted present value calculation.

90 hammers of axes (or barracks or even workers) we have in 5 turns seem to be worth clearly more than 90 hammers of catapults we can have in 30 turns I think? Because the 25 turns of action the axes will see can allow us to have a stronger position in 30 turns. Is this not reasonable?

I want to kill something! His horse city or capital have few if any defenders. We have more power than he does.

The devil is in the details for sure. I'm interested in a specific plan to kill something once we see what he does. If he keeps Carmen, then goal number 1 is taking it back, and possibly with similar tactics he used: a distraction force or two to his base and hit him hard at the same time.

[MindyMcCready]

Basically I will never "defect" in the Prisoner's Dilemma in an opening game of Civ 4.

:LOL: You know that's irrational behaviour right? At least in a non-Civ4 setup anyway.

You've got some principles, I'll give you that. My principles are 'try to kill something now!' and maybe, 'be peaceful and grow so that you can kill more later'. Its sometimes very hard to reconcile these two principles.

[WilliamLP]

Basically I will never "defect" in the Prisoner's Dilemma in an opening game of Civ 4.

:LOL: You know that's irrational behaviour right? At least in a non-Civ4 setup anyway.

You've got some principles, I'll give you that. My principles are 'try to kill something now!' and maybe, 'be peaceful and grow so that you can kill more later'. Its sometimes very hard to reconcile these two principles.

Haha. I do think it becomes rational in Civ4 here where everyone knows everyone else and I don't plan on this being the last PB game I play. Someone like Commodore carries a lot of reputation with him in any game he plays now! Nevermind diplo games and a move like Athlete4life pulled in PB2 - he virtually set himself up to never be welcome in a game again.

I am kind of interested in what I would have done with Retep's start, being choked by Bacchus in the early turns.

[MindyMcCready]

Basically I will never "defect" in the Prisoner's Dilemma in an opening game of Civ 4.

:LOL: You know that's irrational behaviour right? At least in a non-Civ4 setup anyway.

You've got some principles, I'll give you that. My principles are 'try to kill something now!' and maybe, 'be peaceful and grow so that you can kill more later'. Its sometimes very hard to reconcile these two principles.

Haha. I do think it becomes rational in Civ4 here where everyone knows everyone else and I don't plan on this being the last PB game I play. Someone like Commodore carries a lot of reputation with him in any game he plays now! Nevermind diplo games and a move like Athlete4life pulled in PB2 - he virtually set himself up to never be welcome in a game again.

I am kind of interested in what I would have done with Retep's start, being choked by Bacchus in the early turns.

Yeah, we may find this game frustrating at times with everyone making moves on us, but we're not as bad off at T0 as retep was.

What move did Athelete pull? I admire his Slaze double-cross. I severely frown on his inability to actually kill Slaze off though. :LOL: If not for that move, RB might see cheese-army gifting today. Anyone who gifts his immediate neighbour his army deserves it.

Seriously, can you see any possible circumstance where we would gift our army to Retep or Bacchus or Ichabod? Serves him right. I mean, they were just at war immediately before that. It was really awesome how Slaze somehow managed not to rage-quit and then handed Athelete his a$$. Nothing could be more classic than that.

[WilliamLP]

Athelete and Slaze fought for a while, then they agreed on peace and some sort of alliance where Slaze gifted Athlete a bunch of troops - which Athlete then used to backstab him! I don't admire that at all, outcome or not I wouldn't abuse trust or lie in these games.

Anyway:




What we have is what you see. The spear has moved to the west in the spear / axe combo.

If I hadn't moved the archer from Barbiere to cover the axe but moved it toward Carmen instead, we could have tried the dubious defense:
- 4 units in Carmen would mean he'd have at most 3 units inside which we could have counterattacked with 3 axes + 2 archers + 1 wounded shock axe! He could then counter-counter attack (and maybe used auto-promote to heal his winning units)... It all very unclear. The margin is small though.

If we vacate toward Carmen, its defenses are 3 axes, 3 archers, 1 spear, 2 quechuas.

The settler is 3W1S from Turandot now.

I'm inclined to turtle up with what we've got right now. Thus I think I want Turandot on a Barracks (I think we can finish it in 3).

If Retep tries to keep Carmen, it's going to have large maintenance costs being unconnected and set him even further back in terms of research. Ironically it will actually improve our GNP in the short run to have it gone.




Here's your chance to inform specific unit moves.