Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[Ituralde]

I'm at the edge of the seat biting my nails here. Great reporting of a great game!

[oledavy]

I'm at the edge of the seat biting my nails here. Great reporting of a great game!

That makes two of us then!

Turn 160

So, Woden didn't catch me, but he didn't let me fall either.



Woden still doesn't have a DoF with Alhambram though. Since I denounced him and tipped my hand, he could have just signed the DoF already to give Alhambram the confidence to attack me. Still, he refused once again to sign a DoF....

I give it about 50/50 odds that Woden is in the process of backstabbing me at this point. At any rate, I moved my army from being in position to attack Zacynthusgrad to around Yorktown. Now I can more effectively respond to whatever comes. In the event I go to war with Alhambram, I don't know whether to go for the southern coastal cities or push straight to Helicegrad. Something to consider, as I'm not sure I have time to do both.

Amidst all this, I need to remember that my DoF with Singaboy comes up in 20 turns. Killing him is my best path to victory. He knows it, I know it, everyone knows it. So, with that in mind, what's to stop him from building an army over the next 20 turns to be ready, or even to attack me on his own. 

I suspect I may have a German ulcer down the road, but for now, the west continues to be where the real action is. Even the barbs are getting in on the action!



An inconvenient time for a new camp to spawn, but there is never a convenient one. I'm detailing a musket to deal with it, and I have a musket being finished out of NY in a couple turns that can go as well. 

The encampment north of Preslav did send a musket to Weehawken, which promptly died from attacks from the city center. The camp has now been cleared, probably by Preslav. 



Woden continues to just barely edge me out in science. I think in 6 turns though, with the combination of Layatte's University and Rationalism coming online, I shall finally surpass him in a meaningful way. On the plus side, I am making nearly double his culture. The problem is that I am outrunning my ability to generate Inspirations, although in fairness, at this late point in the game, some are just impractical (3 stock exchanges? 4 Sewers for democracy? Fat chance). In the short term, I definitely won't be able to get a city to 15 population for Urban Development. 

Woden is 6 techs ahead. I do have 2 techs within 1 turn of completion, and a lot of unresearched cheap ones. However, he probably has every Industrial Era Eureka (including Industrialization and Sanitation), due to Chatelet. All things considered, I would say he has a 5 tech lead or so at this point.

The key thing is to not let him get to nuclear weapons significantly before me. Hopefully, the combination of my spy, a possible research agreement, Oxford, Dmitri Medvedev, and 3 new campus districts will put me back into tech parity with him. We shall see.

[Bacchus]

Hopefully, the  combination of my spy, a possible research agreement, Oxford, Dmitri Medvedev, and 3 new campus districts will put me back into tech parity with him. We shall see.

Dmitri never fails to bring his buds back to parity.

[oledavy]

Hopefully, the  combination of my spy, a possible research agreement, Oxford, Dmitri Medvedev, and 3 new campus districts will put me back into tech parity with him. We shall see.

Dmitri never fails to bring his buds back to parity.

Derp, I meant Mendeleev. 

Also, welcome to the thread Bacchus!

So, it was a turn. 

Turn 161


Alhambram must have realized what was about to happen, and so he struck pre-emptively, burning Woden's fort south of Jungle Cruise to the ground. 

On the plus side, I managed to navigate the diplomatic situation well enough!   On the flip side, we're now truly in the eye of the hurricane now. 

This turn also featured some opening confusion. You'll notice Woden has an angry face towards me in the top right corner. However, I didn't get a notification that I had been denounced? I messaged him to inquire. He said he did denounce me - although the tone made me believe it was a mistake. In any event, it was definitely at odds with the deal he offered me. 



So, he may have denounced me to set up for a formal war dec, tried to mislead me with a 6 gold for 6 gold deal, and then Alhambram pre-emptively declared war. However, I think the conflicting deals make it more likely he meant to hit declare friendship and hit denounce instead. So much for a research agreement. 

Woden, when you read this after the game, I'm glad we're on the same side now. But you were confusing as all hell over the last few turns and I wish you had been less coy. 

Woden denouncing me also has given me a tantalizing offer: 



That means I have a free 460 culture waiting for me if I want it. Alternatively, this means I have also given Alhambram a chance for a free 460 culture.   I thought there was a 5 turn cool down for the denounced party too. This makes it all but certain Alhambram will declare on me to get the Inspiration before I declare on him. Even if he doesn't get the Inspiration, it screws me over - so I'm sure he'll do it. 

I would love to declare on Woden and make peace right after. But, with a 12 amenities from Alhambram about to go away, I need the 12 I'm getting from him. So, I'm just going to suck it up and research the civic the old-fashioned way. 

If Woden hadn't waffled on me, my army would have been ready to attack Alhambram this turn. But, since I was worried about a backstab and moved it to Yorktown, I had to move it back into position to attack Zacynthusgrad this turn. 



Shame, but if Woden had backstabbed me, I would have dearly regretted keeping this army down here. 

Anyway, I'm now set, here is what I sent to Woden. 



Next turn, I kick things off and march on Alhambram. 

Thus will begin a declicate 18 turn balancing act. Over that period I want to: 

1. Grab 3 cities from Alhambram. 
2. Get my economy in order and accelerate my SPT past Woden. 
3. Be ready for a war with Singaboy. 

These things are mutually exclusive, and I can't do all well. If I want to take all three cities from Alhambram, for example, I will likely not be able to move my army to the borders with Singaboy in time. 

If I focus too much on my economy, I'm going to not have units in play to fight Singaboy on t180. 

In short, I need to be careful in my priorities over the coming turns. This is one of the main reasons I decided to start with Zacynthusgrad instead of Helicegrad. 

I'm going to start in the south with 2/3's of my army, and work my way up the coast culminating in an attack on Helicegrad with the assistance of my Theodosia holding force (1/3 of my army). However, if I run out of time, and need to start moving east before I can take Helicegrad, I will still have results to show for it. The other reason I am heading south first is because while I have something like 95% odds on taking both of those cities, Helicegrad is iffy at best. Alhambram will probably abandon those southern ones, but go all out to defend Helicegrad. Helicegrad is a much better city, and narrows my defensive front considerably. But, it is a high risk, high reward prospect, when I can take 2 cities that are relatively free with considerably less danger of Alhambram doing nasty damage to my army. 

So yeah, next turn, the southern campaign begins. 

At home, I've given up on a massive wonder-building program. I just have too much else to do right now. I will still be constructing Oxford though. My priority in the coming turns, as I finish this round of workers, will be to identify the critical infrastructure projects/builds needed for Eurekas and Inspirations, allocate cities to work on them, and dedicate everything else to building up a second army to hold my eastern border. I made a first stab at it this turn, listing my build priorities, and will continue to expand on it in the coming turns. For now though, it's time to enjoy the holiday and come back to kick off my 5th war of the game tomorrow. 

Here we go!

[oledavy]

Turn 162 - The First World War



Smart move on Alhambram's part. He gets 460 free culture. Still kicking myself over giving him that opportunity, but oh well. On the flip side, by declaring on me, he will incur more WW from our conflict, and had to go an additional turn without amenities/GPT/CS Bonuses. Doesn't really even things out, but it does help. 

Here's how things look in Woden's lands: 



Alhambram is pressing his assault on Jungle Cruise hard. It's a really smart move. The Terracotta Army still isn't complete, so Woden is now on the clock to finish it by slow-building before the city falls. Jungle Cruise also has Woden's second source of Niter, so he won't be able to cram out any more muskets. Although, for what it's worth, Woden is undoubtedly really close to infantry so he wouldn't need the resource that much longer. 

The more I think about it, the more I think Alhambram picked the perfect moment to attack and Woden played this situation very poorly. 

How so? Well, Woden clearly wanted about half a dozen more turns. That's probably his timeline for getting the first Infantry upgrades. He also doesn't have Civil Engineering yet, so his cities are quite vulnerable. Meanwhile, Alhambram had a GG and cossacks, and was never going to be stronger than that exact moment. So, seizing the initiative, he chose to attack Woden at his most vulnerable point. Woden has left the Terracotta Army incomplete for quite some time, and now Alhambram might make him pay for it. Moreover, Woden took Tithe when he could have had Defender of the Faith, a Belief I bet he really wishes he had right about now. 

Woden actually lucked out really hard that Alhambram declared war on him the turn he did, as far as getting me in on his side goes. Denouncing me the same time as you tell me you're going to war in 6 turns is shady at best. I would have still leaned towards my 'misclick' thesis, or him trying to mislead Alhambram, but I would have been forced to move my army to Buenoes Aires to be ready for either possibility. Thankfully, Alhambram declared war, forcing the matter. Even if Woden was planning to backstab me, he clearly can't now. This is not a fake war, but a real one where Woden might lose a city or two.  

It also raises the fun 'what if,' if Woden had actually resigned our DoF immedietly for an alliance and the defensive pact that would have resulted, it might have bought him additional time he needed, as it may have left Alhambram more reluctant to get into the 2v1. Impossible to say for sure. 

Anyway, I want Woden to not collapse, but I would love to see him lose a city. For two reasons: 

1. It will cut down his SPT. 
2. It will make him less likely to make peace with Alhambram. 

Since Woden has been at war 1 turn longer, he has the inside track for making peace at the 10 turn mark, which would in turn allow them to sign a DoF and both send their armies after me. I need to avoid this at all costs. Actually, getting out of this war will be an even more delicate balancing act than getting in. I need to make peace before Woden, but not so far before him that I incur his wrath and seriously swing things in the west with my absence. I absolutely can't let Woden sign peace first though. Still, this is quite a few turns off. 

Alhambram and Woden can make peace for the first time on t171
Alhambram and I can make peace for the first time on t172. 

At least if I have it right. Anyway, we shall see what happens. I'm just thrilled I didn't end of 2v1'd and navigated the diplomatic waters in one piece. It could have easily gone the other way. 

So, I began my assault in the south!



And this, my dear lurkers, is why I didn't feel like attempting Helicegrad was a good idea. You may not be able to tell, but I've shot that city twice with 2 GG enhanced field cannons.   That city is not going to fall until I get my battering ram next to the walls and can hit it with muskets, then I can actually start making progress. And yes, this is a Size 3 city with 1 district and no units inside. I can't even put it under siege as I have no naval units, and any unit I put in the water will basically insta-die. 

I want to throw something out there, this is the worst time on the tech tree to be the attacker. Civil Engineering ensures every city is a pain in the ass to take, and siege still sucks at this point. I feel like Flight is the tech that breaks the game open, throwing observation baloons onto your artillery suddenly makes cities easy to attack and forces the enemy army to come out and engage you. Airplanes further enhance your ability to drop city defenses without taking fire in return. For now though, it's slow going. It's probably going to take me 4 turns to grind down this pissant city, and I may lose a unit or two in the process. We shall see. 


Things are going better in the north: 



I one-shotted Alhambram's scout with my encampment (which did not give me culture), and cleared the barb encampment for a cool 12 culture and 50 gold. Next turn I'll finish off that scout for a few more culture. 

Lest I seem too gleeful at Woden's misfortunes, may I present to you my future problem. 



Singaboy has refused to re-sign our OB agreement and allow me to finish scouting his lands. Here's why. His army is poised to take Hattusa as soon as our agreement runs out. More importantly, though, look at the hammers he's getting from Koblenz's Hansa! 

The others are getting not quite as good but still stellar production numbers. Even with as much punishment as he's taken, Singaboy can be a major threat to me. He will require Infantry to take out, and I definitely will not be able to ignore him on t180, as it looks like he will not allow me to.

[oledavy]

Turn 163

Welp. 



That happened about 1-2 turns faster than I thought. Woden's currently taking more of a beating than I would like...

This is mildly frustrating actually. If Woden just folds, then I just lose plain and simple. Even if I had OB with Woden and had an army that could beat cossacks, it would take an eternity to reach the front lines and would make comparatively little difference by the time it got there. I really hope he gets his act together. 

Seriously though, Alhambram gave him a gift when he elected to re-sign their DoF ~40 turns ago, foregoing the military advantage he had at the time. Woden has almost 150% Alhambram's tech rate at this point, has 7 techs on him, and has had ~150 turns to prepare to deal with a his only meaningful neighbor and the military threat cossacks pose. Is he seriously just going to fold like a paper tiger because he could never be bothered to leave builder mode? 

Well, we shall see. Hopefully he pulls his defenses together, maybe loses another city, then stems the bleeding. The 3-turn conquest of the outer fortifications of Jungle Cruise and the city itself though, bodes very badly for the rest of this war. At this point, I am willing to fund Woden if it means keeping him alive....words I never thought I would say.....

On a slightly related note. Zacynthus is a pain in the ass to take. I launched 3 cannon shots and 3 musket attacks (with battering ram supporting), and now have the city down to 79/200 fortification health. I haven't even begun my assault on the city itself yet. Keep in mind, I was taking Archduke's undefended cities in 5 attacks each. Moreover, this is an undefended city! I shudder to think what the addition of just a field cannon alone would do to my attacking army. I'm already likely to take a casualty or two attacking with the units I have. 

We'll see what the situation near Abydosgrad looks like, but my ability to take Russian cities is even weaker than I expected, and I may have to just settle for this single tundra bound city depending on how things go. 

I am now supplying Woden niter on his request: 



Guessing he has a couple muskets that still need to be completed. 

Finally, I swapped governments this turn to make up for the loss of luxuries from Alhambram. I also slotted in Raj and got back into Rationalism. 



With a university and a library about to complete, and Woden's SPT about to start sliding, I should match up very favorably in the coming turns to the erstwhile tech leader of this game. 

Alhambram is still lagging pretty badly by comparison, but if he is able to win with cossacks, it won't matter much. 

Should this game go on though, just wait until I get Oxford 

[oledavy]

Turn 164

Fortunately, I didn't open the turn to find Nan Madol already in Alhambram's hands. The Russians have decided that they're ready to defend their Greek colonies now though. 



Make no mistake about it dear readers, that is enough to stop my attack in its tracks. However, it seems he is hesistant to commit for the moment. I don't think he knows I have eyes on the cossack in the back, as it appears he is trying to goad me into attacking him. So, I withdrew all my forces outside the range of the cossack, and continued pounding the walls of Zacynthus. If he wants to fight, he's going to need to come out and let me get in the first shot. 



If he does assault my troops, I will have to break off my siege, hope I can kill his cossack quickly, then resume the battle with reinforcements from Theodosia. I really wish at this point I had a couple more troops down here, and less guarding Theodosia. However, I am still not positive that he won't launch a cossack assault on the city, one I need to be able to repel. At any rate, we'll see what he does. The grinding siege continues, but if left alone, I will have the city in 1-2 turns. The problem will be if he stages to attack me next turn. I'll face a difficult choice: I can take the city and leave my army terribly vulnerable, or I can pull back and play conservatively. Since keeping enough troops around to invade Singaboy is foremost in my mind, I will likely opt for the former, but we shall see. 

Provided Woden doesn't just die, him and Alhambram's conflict is setting me up to win this thing: 





I'm now leading him by 10 SPT, a lead I will expand to ~22 when I complete my library and university. But wait, there's more! I have Oxford coming down the line, I have a spy in Space Mountain waiting to steal a tech boost. Finally, I've decided that when I do go to war with Singaboy, I will prioritize Seoul and aim to liberate it. Why? At this point, the CS bonuses it will give me will be far more valuable than it as a city (still only size 5).

By the time I liberate it, I will have 6 campuses, and I can easily have 3 envoys ready to throw into the city for 6 total. Combined with Raj, liberating the city will give me 2 GPT, 2 FPT, 2 CPT, and 28 SPT 

Long story short, my science is about to explode while Woden's is only falling. 

Alhambram's economy is already visibily creaking under the weight of this war. He is currently at 80 SPT if I recall correctly. Probably the result of losing Grand Embassy Trade Routes to Woden, the bonus from Hattusa, and the loss of luxuries. While Germany is trading with him and keeping him in this thing, he's only going to encounter greater luxury problems as he delves deeper into China. If he doesn't win here, I will be able to consolidate power on my end of the continent, build an unstoppable modern army, and overrun him with the power of nuclear weapons at my back and call. 

This is not to say Woden is completely out, but he went from very likely to win to about 20% odds. I imagine he loses Nan Madol, then stabilizes things with infantry upgrades. I really hope he's researching Civil Engineering right now - that more than anything else is killing his ability to hold off the Russian tide. Even attacking and retreating cossacks will have difficulty against str. ~70 cities with 200 fortificiation. Just look at how tough Zacynthus is for me to take. After he takes Civil Engineering, he can grab Nationalism and try to retake some ground if the cossack army has not reached critical mass by then. 

I'm unsure of what to do at this point to keep him in. I will front him a loan if need be. I'm debating if sending units would help, but I can't help but feel it would not do much. It shall be something I will keep coming back to over the coming turns.

[oledavy]

By the way, does anyone know why the two encampments I captured from Archduke are not giving me TR's?

[oledavy]

Turn 165

In international news. 



Why yes, Alhambram has been at war for a mere 5 turns and taken 2 cities. On the plus side, Woden's military power rating seems to be holding strong, although it's not growing. He also finished a Industrial Era civic within the last couple of turns. 



All his cities don't have 200 fortification, so it must have been Nationalism. I think I would have prioritized Civil Engineering over it, but eh, it should help. At least its a sign that progress is being made towards stabilizing things. Alongside this: 



Almost to Infantry. And not a second to soon. Monsanto is on the chopping block next, and if it falls, it's difficult to not see the rest of Woden's territory following suit. Even if he holds the capital though, he has the issue of an indefensible front with Russia that I outlined earlier in this game. Space Mountain and the cities east of it can easily be sliced off and isolated from reinforcement, especially since now he has to sink everything he has into defending his capital. 

I'm still just shocked, every time I open the turn and look at the latest damage in the west. 

Anyway, hopefully he's on the way to stemming the bleeding before he loses any more core cities. With the loss of Nan Madol's campus, library, and university, his science rating has taken quite a beating. 



I'm not making about 150% his SPT, and I'm finishing a library and university next turn for 12 more SPT 

On the bright side, Alhambram is still struggling on that front, and is currently making 83.3 SPT. Hopefully Woden stays at war for quite some time and prevents the occupation penalty from wearing off those cities and allowing Alhambram's tech rate to recover. 

Alright, time to strike back for the "Not Alhambram" players. 

Alhambram got cold feet and didn't move out with his cavalry. This is good and bad. Good, in that it allowed me to take Zacynthusgrad. Bad, because Abydosgrad is looking increasingly difficult to assault. 

Still, first things first. 



It took 4 turns to besiege the city, but it's mine now. 



I forgot this was an option, I briefly mulled over what bringing Archduke back into the game might do   It would be interesting to say the least, but needless to say, I did not. If one of these cities was not beset by Weedy Movement, it would be worth considering capturing it just to establish and enclave free from Alhambram's religion. However, it doesn't look like it's in the cards here. Archduke, you don't get hauled from the chorus of the dead today 

Here is the situation at the end of the turn: 



I need a few turns to heal up before I can attempt anything else. Alhambram's cossack is in Abydos, and the four knights are milling around. I could end my campaign against Alhambram now, and just make peace as soon as I can (provided he'll accept of course). I wouldn't have taken any losses, will have gained 1 (small) city, and will have distracted at least a handful of units (including one of the cossack terrors) from joining in on the attack on Woden. Zacynthus was a pain to take without any units defending it. But Abydos has 5 units around it, one of them being a cossack. 

I'll consider it, but I think this might be a moment to take my gains and call it quits. I can still make scary faces at Alhambram across the border and force him to keep units over here, even if I don't press forward - giving Woden at least a tiny bit of breathing space. I just need to make sure if I want to do that past t172, I'm not trapped at war with Alhambram in case him and Woden peace out and that GG Cossack army comes this way. I don't think I can fight Alhambram and Singaboy. At the very least it will be difficult. 

In other international news: 



This turn my spy arrived in Space Mountain (currently looking fine), and established a listening post. Hopefully Alhambram doesn't take this city in the next 16 turns and ruin my mission.

[oledavy]

Turn 166

Big turn for my economy. First off: 



Lafayette finished its long-awaited University, giving me the Eureka for printing. Additionally, the completion of this university, alongside the completion of Georgetown's library has shot my SPT up to ~140, as opposed to Woden's now ~85. 

Last turn, I bought a couple of forested third ring tiles for Hong Kong and Lafayette. Don't worry, I'll be replenishing my treasury soon for infantry upgrades with crabs in the north. In the interim, Hong Kong's forest allowed me to wrap up its bank build. 



5 Turns to infantry. After that, it's a hard burn to flight. The other forests will be going into completing this little project: 



Even at 4 forest chops and 1 stone harvest, this build is going to take a long time. I esimate I'll finish it around t195. I haven't bothered to calculate it precisely, because a lot can change in that time, and I seriously doubt I have any competition for this wonder. I'll additionally be trying to speed it up by rerouting trade routes out of Lafayette for the hammers. I'm considering swapping briefly into Skyscrapers simply for the hammers from chops. I just don't think I'll have the policy slot to spare. 

My other infrastructure side project is currently getting Zoos out in BA and HK. Both cities are currently working on their entertainment districts/arenas. I have New York working on an amphitheater and then a archaeological museum for the requisite Inspiration. Just those two zoos cover 11 cities. Needless to say, that should seriously help with an amenities issue I only expect to become worse as I prepare to assault Singaboy. 

In the west, nothing of Woden's fell this turn, and my units around Monticello are healing for the most part. I have all but decided I'm not going to continue pushing into Russian lands. I think I will divide my army, and leave enough in the south to hold off Alhambram's current forces, then begin moving the rest to get in position to attack Singaboy. With an infantry upgrade due soon, and Civil Engineering already in, I can feel relatively safe against Alhambram. If he brings even 2-3 more cossacks than her currently has, however, thinks will become a lot dicier. Having those city defenses gives me a lot more leeway than Woden has though. None of mine are going to be blitzed in one turn if nothing else. 

Singaboy completed an encampment around Seoul this turn. 



I have to say, I think that's an awful location for one. I was already planning on attacking from the northwest, now I definitely am. If I play it right, that encampment will never get a shot in. When I fight with Singaboy, I think I'm going to detail a few units to hold the southern front, and concentrate my efforts on taking Seoul and then Ulm. Taking those two cities will split his empire open, and allow for a relatively simple mop up operation. Well, I say relatively simple, but I'm honestly expecting quite a fight from the Germans. Thankfully for me, I'll have Infantry Corps. 

I just need to make sure Alhambram doesn't kill me while my back is turned. It's entirely possible he won't accept a DoF, since he'll know me killing Singaboy is pretty close to GG. Then again, if I turn my back on him and he kills Woden, that is GG. It will be a delicate situation to say the least, figuring out how to navigate my exit from one conflict and entrance into another.