[Spoilers] Chevalier Gives You Something to Cry Aboot

[williams482]

Yup, currassiers and field cannons are the next generation (both unlocked at Ballistics), and they will obviously shred any ancient/medieval units they go up against. They aren't great city takers, but obviously once they've chewed through our army actually grinding down the walls is just a matter of time. Frankly, I'm pulling pretty had for everyone else to decide Woden is unstoppable, because there really is no way we can hold out against that.

The only attack that felt like a real full force assault was the attack against Bruins just as his first muskets were coming into play, and Kaiser still came up short because he underestimated how badly we could hurt an isolated musket. Had he waited five turns to get all four muskets in play together, backed by that mass of ranged units that we were ultimately able to clean up, and he would have given us more than we could handle at a critical time. Likewise, I don't think he realized how difficult it would be for us to actually kill a fortified musket with that superhealer in play, and withdrew when he could have pressed his advantage against ancient walls and a broken encampment. One of those muskets I was only firing at in hopes of shaking him up a bit, I saw very little chance of ever killing it before it promoted Tortoise and became effectively invulnerable.

I am looking forward to seeing how the Punic-Brazilian war went down. Woden seems to have been able to knock down city defenses much faster than I had anticipated, despite what should have been a clear strength disadvantage between his ranged attackers and the cities they were firing upon. Did Ichabod not have medieval+ walls up in these cities? Or perhaps I'm underestimating the powers of massed frigates, and the bulk of these cities have been coastal. Domination of different theaters would explain all the city trading we've been seeing.

[williams482]

Turn 138:

I see what's happening here...



Kaiser wants to improve that Niter source. We don't want him to, and more than that, we wish to exploit his desires by bloodying his nose a bit prior to his inevitable third (fourth? I don't remember) assault on Bruins. Our crossbow plus encampment will average 19 + 15 against the musket this turn, and I expect those two strikes plus the other two crossbows to average 26 + 19 + 25 = 106 total damage, with an extra strike left over. We can absolutely kill that musket, even if Kaiser gets a lucky roll with his bombard and finishes off the encampment walls. The tricky bit is going to be capturing the worker while continuing to trade well. The cheap, would-definitely-die-but-probably-take-attackers-with-it option is the nearby horse, which would be tag-teamed and neatly dispatched by the MCH + knight + courser trio. Whichever unit got the kill would die, unless it was the MCH, in which case wither the knight or the courser would have to occupy either the hill tile the musket is on or the plains tile 2NW of Kings, either tile being vulnerable to at least three ranged strikes and melee attacks from the other forces I'll advance to support the doomed horse.

Alternately, I can use a stronger unit in that role, and hope to keep it alive: I have a pike 7 EXP short of it's first promotion, which could reach the Niter tile next turn and occupy it with a +6 support bonus (+8 if I'm willing to push the knight across the river). A MCH strike would average 32, the knight and courser followups 29 and 28, and Kaiser does have another MCH he could use to get the kill, although he would expose it to certain doom. If he went after the Knight placed in the same spot, he could do 19 + 20 with MCH strikes, then 34 + 32 with the knight and courser, a probable kill. The knight is a completely unacceptable loss under these circumstances, and the pike substantially more valuable than the horse, so our sacrifice is chosen. We shoot Kaiser's musket for 13 and 18 (not great...) and hope he doesn't have a promotion lined up.

Wild finds itself opposed by a surprisingly powerful army, which could do some legitimate damage if used intelligently:



Fortunately Kaiser seems oblivious to the trouble his pets have put me in, or he no doubt would spend some of his massive war chest on a levy and start hammering away at a softer target than Bruins. Also of note in this shot, a swarm of English chariots. Without Canada's surprise war protections, I'd be very worried, as it is I'm merely puzzled. Suboptimal has built a military stronger than Woden's is at the moment, and his much larger war chest, massive resource stockpiles (130 iron, 45 niter, and just this turn, the world's first Coal) combined with these obviously obsolete but upgradeable units show that he could become much stronger still, but he doesn't seem to be doing anything with it as Woden chews his way through Ichabod's very large and powerful empire. Woden also has the research edge, and both of them are about to lose their Free Inquiry science bonus. Obviously eating Canada (really, half of Canada, unless we somehow annoy Kaiser enough that he'll make peace) isn't going to make up that difference, England needs to take the fight to Phoenicia while Woden is distracted and their military is stronger. Puttering around on our borders doesn't help much there. I offer a DoF, but I don't expect to get any benefits or information out of it: I would probably decline that DoF in Suboptimal's place regardless of my intentions, to avoid alerting Woden. Brave Canada, relegated to the spoiler role, doesn't deserve such luxuries as secure borders.

Bruins at least decided not to pick up the grass hill bordering Isaac, and settled for the flat jungle over the plains hill our builder has been hopefully standing on for the last few turns. Boo, hiss. With nothing better to do until Magus establishes in Wild and the theater is clear enough to chop some pop into the city, I move the builder towards the desert hill outside Bruins, where we can put down a 0/3/0 mine. Down at Penguins, I decide the half-completed library is actually slightly more urgent than the harbor (we want muskets and Renaissance Walls as fast as we can get 'em) and chop 115h through the library to overflow into the harbor. I then send Magus back to Wild and Amani back to Venice, where an extra envoy will actually get us +4 gpt.

Next turn should be a busy one: new era, boost to Guilds, and a battle that could (conceivably) prove significant.


Scores:

[williams482]

Turn 139:

We have entered the Renaissance:



and as a surprising final act of Pen, Brush, And Voice (or perhaps of being an age ahead of the tech?), our second market has knocked out the final 50% of Guilds:



We are in a normal age, as expected. What is not expected is where our neighbors wound up:



Suboptimal's Court of Love isn't quite so scary confined to normalcy, and more so with Kaiser exerting only one third of the loyalty pressure he was applying last turn. Suboptimal also accepted our Declaration of Friendship, and has even stronger soldiers on our border than he did the turn before. Is he going after Kaiser? I'd offer a joint war against Woden if I could, but I can't cuz Canada.

The unexpectedly survivable loyalty situation gives me some second thoughts about taking Victor's Garrison Commander promotion, as the Loyalty benefits are no longer urgent, but it also gives a tremendously useful +5 combat strength to units within the borders and leaves us one step away from unlocking a second city strike. Under the circumstances, that remains a clearly superior choice.

Kaiser has mined the plains hill his mucket + builder were on, and fortified the unit. If that is the same unit that occupied our encampment in the final stages of his latest attack on t114, it is now at 13/15 EXP and will promote if hit again. If not, the unit was likely completely fresh and only at 4/15 EXP. This is my last chance to use Bruins' encampment strike before Kaiser knocks off the last 25 fortification health. Do I feel lucky? Sure, why not. Crossbow hits for 15, Encampment for 12. Musket now at 43 health, and either 8/15 EXP, or about to pick up Tortoise.

Unfortunately, it occurs to me that if Kaiser really wants that Niter, he can just send this one charge builder over and mine it, no escort required because the builder will evaporate anyway. I should have anticipated this, it's definitely what I would by trying to do in his shoes. Is it worth making an advance to try to disrupt this? One point in favor is that Kaiser has moved a unit away from the tile marked "MCH? t138". I don't know what that unit was for sure, but my speculation is plainly stated. One less ranges strike against a knight or pikeman is substantial, but the presence and relative health of the musket more than makes up for it. Truthfully, there is no cost effective way I can stop that, and will have to just let him put the mine down. This highlights a definite area of weakness in my tactical game here: I love trying to set up tricksy little ambushes, and because of that I jump to conclusions when I see something that I might be able to exploit for one. I have made several tactical errors as a direct result of that in this game, and a player in a potential future game could very likely attempt to exploit that tendency themselves. Food for thought. For now, though, I draw the scouts back and reshuffle my ranged units to make shooting that musket next turn a possibility:



We have a policy swap due up, one turn sooner than I expected. Bastions and Conscription must stay in, Maritime Industries and Feudal Contract are both expendable as the crossbow in Bruins will finish in two turns regardless (although without the 11.5 overflow if I pull the policy). With gunpowder finishing next turn, decent gold reserves and income, and the next policy swap expected in six turns, I think now is the time for upgrade cards. Conscription is worth 14 gpt right now, which I do not wish to surrender. We have 254g, we make 36gpt. Upgrading the sword and warrior to muskets will cost a combined 360g, upgrading our second chariot to a knight another 160g. If we delay upgrades as long as possible to maintain gold income, we would have a combined 470g at the end of our discounted upgrade window, so that chariot isn't trading in it's wheels this time around. I'd try begging for 50g, but why would anyone give us that? Suboptimal and Woden are the two civs who can still decide this game, Kaiser is better off than us but still utterly irrelevant in military or infrastructure. This is the time for a settler push, as both Blues and Kings have finished their tasks, and Colonization shaves off quite a few turns. Dropping Urban Planning isn't great, but it beats losing 14gpt, and we can still get that crossbow out of Bruins in two turns with the help of that desert mine next turn. So, with all that laid out, we're going to run with this setup:



Blues and Kings start settlers, due in 5 and 9 turns respectively. Blackhawks sets to work on a trader, due in 6. Finally, we get around to picking our normal age dedication, and wow do they suck:



Well, we don't have a religion, we have precious little opportunity to explore or kill naval units, and we'll complete, like, three trade routes across this entire age (seriously, who the hell thought that would be a good source of era score?). That leaves Monumentality as our only remotely plausible score producer, so we'll run with it.

Suboptimal has shown zero inclination towards occupying the Avalanche site, and our warrior is totally outclassed by the city state units in that area, so I decide the best thing for him to do is press on into england to check out those flat, unobstructed plains that Thrawn was hinting at earlier:

[stupid screenshot didn't take. Whatever, you can see it next turn]

The plaza and campus are owned by "Foggy Dewhurst", which is not on their tradeable city list and is thus probably the capital. That's awfully close considering how late in the game we were introduced. Interesting.

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

The fact that an irrelevant also-ran like Canada can still resist Eleanor's loyalty, after she's been left alone all game to do whatever she wants, kind of highlights her weakness.

Woden's 80 point lead in Empire score should, I think, be decisive. If sub piles onto Woden alongside Kaiser, it might be a game between the three of them, but if he goes after Kaiser instead I'd call the game for Woden right there. He'll have time to digest his Brazilian conquests and build up for a new round of fighting - I doubt that England can rapidly conquer Egypt to make up the difference.

But if Sub goes for Woden, well, it might be a game. If his navy is strong enough to take out Phoenicia's, then ironically enough our dogged stand has protected his only land borders and so he's safe from retaliation until Woden could chew through Canada - which he won't do if Egypt also is fighting him or even remains neutral. I think that's sub's best path to victory, honestly.

Kaiser's shot is STILL to eat us, finally, or to attack Woden, but he STILL doesn't have the military score for either. He's been building campuses and universities it looks like instead, giving him a shiny science income and nothing yet to really show for it.

[williams482]

Suboptimal could and really should have played this better if he wanted to eat us with loyalty. He was at 89 era score on t129 when the era countdown started, needed (I assume) 97 to be Golden, and wound up with 92. He also has had ample opportunity to settle that Avalanche site, which isn't a great city, but in tandem with a golden age this era would have left us completely defenseless against his one weird trick. Wild would fall, Bruins not long after, and from there he gets at least nontrivial pressure on Kings. Even if those two are all he can flip, that's better than Kaiser could do, and lands him two reasonably well developed cities with none of the usual post-conquest drawbacks.

Now, maybe there was no low hanging era score fruit left to pluck, and if so constructing more military to go after Woden was the better play than trying to rush a settler to a production-starved site so he can maybe-but-probably-not flip some Canucks. I suppose that makes your point from the other direction: even when this trick works, it's never going to be more than a minor benefit against human players.

Suboptimal did just spend a truckload of cash this turn. I forgot to check resource stockpiles, but how large a milpower spike we see next turn should be telling.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I guess he was waiting for the era flip to start his attack. maybe took Hic Sunt Dracones with an eye towards sinking the Phoenician fleet? I wish I knew how many Phoenician cities were coastal vs. how many Cothons Woden crammed into lakes for the trade route + settler bonus (probably not more than 1 or 2 at hte most). The +50% ship production will make it a challenge even for England to overwhelm him in a naval fight, but it's sub's only shot. An alpha strike on the fleet followed by rapid razing of the coast might work.

[williams482]

If that was the plan, major ouch for failing to come up with the extra era score. Hic Sunt Dracones in a golden age gives a few helpful benefits for colonizing efforts, but also a massive +2 movement for embarked and naval units. I'll bet that Woden took that dedication over the other militaristically useless options available, so RNDs plus an admiral only brings the English navy up to parity with undamiraled Punic ships.

This is going to be a hell of a battle if it happens at all. I think I'll try to get a look at Suboptimal's coastline with the galley; we may suffer an extra barb uprising as a result, but whatever, we're losing anyway and I'd prefer to make slightly more informed speculations.

[williams482]

Turn 140:

Gunpowder completes:



Kaiser has done as I predicted last turn, and not as I predicted the turn before, expending his builder's final charge on the niter tile we were never in position to fight for. He also pulled his musket back out of reach of our units, further proof that he hates fun. At Wild, Geneva's potentially problematic army continues to stand around doing absolutely nothing and asking to get shot, so I continue to indulge them. The promoted musket will definitely die next turn if it continues as it has. Also of note, Kaiser has completed the encampment in Isaac. That will make holding off a siege at Bruins just a bit more difficult.



"Foggy Dewhurst" is, in fact, the capital of England. Not much more to be learned from here just yet.



On the Tech front, our short term priority is clearly Sieve Tactics (due in 9t unboosted), for the even more unassailable (and even more expensive) Renaissance Walls. Long term, field cannons and Cuirassiers would be super sweet, but that is indeed a long ways out for Canada. Not to worry, we need all that time for upgrade gold anyway.

Speaking of upgrades, high time we made one:



This bumps the effective strength of Bruins to 66, and moving the musket inside the city center would bring it to 76. Kaiser's bombard will average 15 damage per hit against that, 13 if he doesn't get the printing bonus against cities. Field canons will average 4, 8 once the walls are down, and Currassiers even without the walls will average 16 (and take 57). This is a problematic situation balance wise, but for now I am happy to take advantage. Bring it, Kaiser.

I consider sending Suboptimal a delegate, purely in hopes of getting more information about the war I assume he's about to engage in. I'll wait until our second musket is upgraded in the event he doesn't reciprocate, but after that, why not. His milpower only jumped by 163 after spending over 1300g last turn. Iron and niter stocks have fallen off considerably, but his coal reserves have jumped by 20 in the last two turns. He might be able to build Ironclads in real numbers, which could be significant. Oddly, he has some freshly upgraded knights, muskets, and a general hanging around our borders, which if anything hints at him attacking Kaiser? No no no, bad. We've got this, go beat up on Woden. Any ideas how to hint at that in a trade proposal?

Scores:

[williams482]

Turn 141:

Same old, same old on the Egyptian front:



I shoot Burke for 30 damage. Bruins' encampment has 9 HP left on it's walls. The Bombard should average 22 damage against the encampment if the diplomatic visibility bonus applies, 19 if it doesn't. If the encampment does start taking real damage, I'll move the musket in, which will cut bombard damage down to 15 per turn. Kaiser will need to throw his army at this site if he intends to take it, and he's shown no interest in doing so thus far.

Wild kills the crippled Genevan musket, which made a futile attempt to flee onto a jungle hill in the second ring. Bruins completed it's crossbow and starts on a barracks, baby steps towards the military engineer for Ballistics. Kaiser seems to be thinking along the same lines in Isaac.

I will have 297g in the bank when Exploration completes and I'll want to swap off the upgrade policies. Upgrading that warrior will cost 205, upgrading the chariot 160, and upgrading a horse 125. Probably the best bang for my buck is upgrading chariot + horse for two more reasonably strong mobile strikers for a combined 285. I have identified my most experienced horse, and will get it to a more central position for maximum effectiveness post upgrade. I decide what the hell and send England a delegate, if they don't reciprocate I'll just straight up ask for 25g.

Our explorer in England finds little of note:



Of note in the gossip screen, Phoenicia reconquered Recife last turn and Sáo Paulo this turn. Clearly there is heavy fighting going on over there, and clearly Brazil is getting the worst of it.

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Any developments on the English front? Will suboptimal strike Egypt, or Phoenicia?