[SPOILERS] swans will bite u

[ljubljana]

Turn 16 - Japan

here is v2 of the pinmap, with maxed-out adjacencies:



note almost no harbors required to achieve some really sickening numbers, including +9 at the capital's campus! but there is a big cost to this approach, namely the two wasted chops and potentially a big growth slowdown at the second city in particular, which moves 1E into a spot with pretty much no two-food tiles though it does save a (presumptive) GotS fish in the east which is nothing to sneeze at

[TheArchduke]

Pottery vs. Astrology is the question.

I think harbors first so I went astrology.

[williams482]

Surrounding a geothermal vent city with districts from other cities also requires a whole bunch of third ring tile purchases. Remember that the first ring of a city cannot be swapped to other cities, so all those districts have to be placed before the city is settled. That plus the two lost chops makes for an expensive operation.

I think you'll do better by moving 2 and 3 south one tile each and relaxing slightly on cramming every possible district into the megacity complex. 3 can put it's campus on the sheep tile next to the dyes, 5 can put it's HS where 3's campus is currently pinned while 6 moves it's HS over to where 5's is, etc.

[ljubljana]

Pottery vs. Astrology is the question.

I think harbors first so I went astrology.

Sounds good to me! An early harbor is better than a campus anyways in Free Inquiry, and I do think you should be able to get there without too much trouble once we start exploring.

Surrounding a geothermal vent city with districts from other cities also requires a whole bunch of third ring tile purchases. Remember that the first ring of a city cannot be swapped to other cities, so all those districts have to be placed before the city is settled. That plus the two lost chops makes for an expensive operation.

I think you'll do better by moving 2 and 3 south one tile each and relaxing slightly on cramming every possible district into the megacity complex. 3 can put it's campus on the sheep tile next to the dyes, 5 can put it's HS where 3's campus is currently pinned while 6 moves it's HS over to where 5's is, etc.

This is a very good solution! Thanks for the idea, that should cut back on the expenses in the early game substantially, and we can still play a strong opening without committing either way on the vent city until we have a better sense of how much money we have to throw away on the tile purchases . I do regret the loss of the sheep, but long-term a 3f/2h tile is roughly the same as a 2f/3h grass hill mine, and we'd be paving over plenty of those anyways

One issue with either placement of city 3 on the south coast is that it kills a Feitoria spot at Geneva. This maybe doesn't seem like much, BUT Geneva is looking like the best Feitoria spot in Japan, and if so that would cost 1.5 hammers and 6 gold PER TAD city, a huge cost that definitely outweighs a few campus beakers. Luckily, we shouldn't have to commit on that until Geneva has been captured and we have a better understanding of how essential its Feitoria spots really are...

[ljubljana]

finally updated the spreadsheet from last turn, and thrawn/krill vaulted to FIRST in religious victory, ahead of Woden and Chev and up from fourth last turn. What....?!

[ljubljana]

Turn 17 - Japan



I was expecting to sight the barb scout this turn - the fact that we have not done so is disconcerting. Of course it could still be in those three fogged tiles in the west, but if it's in the south instead we're in some trouble here and may have to take risks with the settler, who is beyond all possible hope of escort now. Worst-case, we could reformulate the dotmap to settle in the north first, but that foregoes the accelerated attack on Geneva that is such a major advantage to the SW spot...

Abroad, thrawn/krill's sudden and mysterious lead in the pantheon race remains, troublingly....

@TheArchduke, how is your settler/growth pace looking? Are you planning to swap to a 2f/1h tile for a minute so your capital doesn't drop to size 1, or do you think sticking to the PFH is better? We should also talk about the next civic choice - I'm not sure if we want Craftsmanship or to start EE yet, since we are unlikely to be ready to boost EE to completion for some time but also nave no urgent need for Agoge. I suppose you may want a fast EE for Amani (?), but it will still take some time for you to grow to 6 pop.

I do have a pretty amusing plan for inspiring Craftsmanship, btw - capturing Geneva should do it, since they have 2 farms up already and will likely get a fishing boat as well before my boats get there And actually, that's probably the answer to the EE problem as well - I'll inspire it by eating Geneva and growing my 3 cities to size 2, and then can inspire it for you by finishing it.

Also, are you planning to do Irrigation before or after CelNav? Asking because I have no plausible plan to eureka it, but depending on your choice of second city I'm not sure you do either. Maybe it's best for me to do it unboosted when I need to and you can just rush for harbors so you can get the first few up as cheaply as possible.

edit: WAIT never mind - eating Geneva will eureka Irrigation since they have farmed the maize tile That and AH are my most likely research targets after Astro + Sailing, I think, as I will need both the amenities and housing from the dyes plantation ASAP.

edit2: Note to self - gotta think about overflow at Hakuho so I can get the HS done in 3 turns for sure. 29 hammers = 5 hammers of overflow required - might need to swap to PFH for a turn or two to make that happen (?)

edit3: note to self - next pinmap = city on barb camp and incense hill

[williams482]

A city on the barb camp invalidates the potential geothermal vent site, as does any other possible canal city. Unfortunate.

Are you guys familiar with the Detailed Map Tacks mod? It calculates adjacencies, added yields, etc for you, and in my experience quite accurately even with civ-specific quirks. Strongly recommended, even if only to save a split second of typing "+5" for every single pin.

[williams482]

As for the religious ranking, I think the ordering is Civilizations Converted > Faith Per Turn > Accumulated Faith. That would suggest the following:

- Woden picked up God King on t11 and Banzailizard on t13, giving them two faith per turn (same rate as Chevalier). Chevalier also got his pantheon on t13 and picked up Urban Planning, losing the lead in faith accumulation to fall to 2nd in the rankings.
- Krill and Incurian didn't complete Code of Laws until t15. Krill and Thrawn combining for two faith per turn from two God King cards wouldn't have been enough to top Woden/Banzailizard's combined faith accumulation, so they must have also started working a faith tile improvement (unlikely to be possible) or met a faith city state on the same turn. Krill picked up God King anyway (perhaps Thrawn got the first meet bonus). Their +3 combined faith per turn ties Chevalier/Incurian, and Thrawn Krill get the top spot for more accumulation.

We can thus derive the following:
Woden: 6 faith, +1 per turn, pantheon on t36 with no further changes
Banzailizard: 4 faith, +1 per turn, pantheon t38
Thrawn: 4 faith, +2/+1 per turn (with/without the faith CS), pantheon t28/t38
Krill: 1 faith, +1/+2 per turn, pantheon t41/t29
Incurian: 1 faith, +1 per turn, pantheon t41
Chevalier: 11 faith, +2 per turn, pantheon complete
Ljubljana: 4 faith, +1 per turn, pantheon t38
Archduke: 4 faith, +1 per turn, pantheon t38

As things stand now, Archduke is essentially guaranteed the last pantheon choice. Ljubljana can, if they start the Holy Site immediately after the settler, complete it on t24 and the pantheon on t29. Just working a faith tile at the second city, settled t23, would get a pantheon on t31. Using both faith increases would get the pantheon on t28, which still loses to faith-CS-boosted Thrawn but beats out everyone else provided no other players increase their faith income (a rather dubious assumption).

[ljubljana]

Yeah, I guess the basic question going forward is whether the campus adjacencies from the geothermal spot, which is otherwise weakish and non-coastal, is worth foregoing the growth curve acceleration we'd get from moving city 4 1SE onto the coast, plains hill, and with a first-ring PFH (though at the cost of a chop medium-term since the north PFH would then be third-ring), and moving city 6 2SW to a plains hill spot with PFH and (possibly GotS-boosted) fish in the first ring. I suspect the faster snowball is the right choice, and today will try to make a pinmap under that assumption that loses the vent city. But it is really unfortunate that the shape of the land is such that we are forced to make such tradeoffs. If we had just ONE more tile's worth of room in the west OR the north, our solution space would look much cleaner....

This looks like the correct explanation for the religious rankings - thank you so much for that! With respect to the pantheon math, I think TAD and I should be on track for t38 right now, not t41, due to our 4 banked faith from the fast CoL, which does at least beat Incurian and non-CS boosted Krill. But we have a trick up our sleeves, as well - starting on turn 24, TAD will have a trade route to my capital with a completed holy site, which will give them +1 faith/turn That boosts their pantheon time to t31, ahead of everyone but the boosted member of the thrawn/krill team with no other changes. Sadly, I would be quite surprised if Festivals survives to the fourth pantheon choice, but maybe thrawn will be lured by ideas about God of the Forge or some other off-the-wall move like that and let TAD snag it late.

With respect to my own math, let me think this through... I will have:

- 10 faith on t23 when the holy site finishes (assuming the 29 hammer cost is correct, and that I can connive to overflow at least 5 hammers from the settler, which I'll check on when I get the save next). This is also the turn I will found the second city and can start working the faith tile if needed.

- 26 faith on t27 if I keep God King AND work the faith resource, which is guaranteed second unless the boosted member of thrawn/krill ALSO works a faith resource at city 2, which I think is unlikely as forested dyes is the only one strong enough to seriously consider working and I'd guess the other teams have a different set of land-based luxes from ours. Even if they DO have a dyes, it would also have to be at a plausible second city site anyways, which even TAD does not have...

- 25 faith on t28 if I drop GK for Urban Planning and work the faith resource, which was my plan before we did this math and which COULD still be enough for second but would lose to CS-boosted thrawn. That's a tough choice - dropping UP at the second city will mean an 11-turn galley instead of an 8-turn one, delaying the Geneva attack by 3t, and it will be some time before I can finish either Craftsmanship or EE (likely the former after the Geneva kill) to get the heck out of God King. But is that tradeoff worth taking in exchange for a guaranteed second pantheon choice? Or could I perhaps fix things by swapping to PFH at the second city when the pantheon comes in, at the cost of delaying growth? Could be, I'll ruminate on it more over the next 7t.

[williams482]

With respect to the pantheon math, I think TAD and I should be on track for t38 right now, not t41, due to our 4 banked faith from the fast CoL, which does at least beat Incurian and non-CS boosted Krill.

Uhh, whoops. Good catch. Ima edit that real quick...

The cost of the Holy Site will be 63h if we complete ONLY Astrology but not Foreign Trade prior to it's placement, or 68h with Foreign Trade completed. Japan's district cost reduction isn't actually a cost reduction, but a (overflow-lossy) +100% production modifier when building those districts.

I was not properly accounting for losses from the settler pop point in the previous timeline. After a little more spreadsheet tinkering to account for that, and factoring in swapping from second citizen from the plains forest hill to the jungle hill on t17 (so, last turn, but it sounds like you did that) and swapping back to the plains forest hill once the settler completes, we can complete the settler on t20 with 4h overflow, then get a 63h HS completed on t24 with no saved overflow. A galley with foreign trade would have exactly the same timeline and (lack of) overflow.

I think we should thus delay Foreign Trade at least one turn to get the HS down, probably until the HS completes and we can actually start ships. Also worth noting that our warrior is about to get into a fight; a few extra turns of +5 CS will not be wasted.