[SPOILERS] Small Wunders and Izzy of Inca: The fat lady sings

[WilliamLP]

So what's the objective of this little invasion?

While possible, it's pretty unlikely that we'll capture his capital.

Yeah, I give approximately 0% we can take his capital. The aim would be the disconnect his stuff, the cow, the mines, his food resources, the roads to the horse and copper city. Not for the gold but to hurt him. A stack of 5 axes and a spear in his land isn't something he can really deal with without moving his east stack back... and it's already pretty far gone! If he doesn't move it back, we mass up more C1 axes while just defending at WT. We lose the corn possibly and delay the gold.

That's the strongest argument I can come up with... It's definitely a zero-sum strategy of course! It puts us more ahead of him if it works, and behind the rest of the world.

[MindyMcCready]

So what's the objective of this little invasion?

While possible, it's pretty unlikely that we'll capture his capital.

Yeah, I give approximately 0% we can take his capital. The aim would be the disconnect his stuff, the cow, the mines, his food resources, the roads to the horse and copper city. Not for the gold but to hurt him. A stack of 5 axes and a spear in his land isn't something he can really deal with without moving his east stack back... and it's already pretty far gone! If he doesn't move it back, we mass up more C1 axes while just defending at WT. We lose the corn possibly and delay the gold.

That's the strongest argument I can come up with... It's definitely a zero-sum strategy of course! It puts us more ahead of him if it works, and behind the rest of the world.

We can achieve all of your objectives if we first destroy that axe stack. Soon as we were healed up we could go on that pillaging rampage in relative safety, forcing him to whip down his capital. If we invade now we run multiple risks; risk that we need to whip away our capital when he forks Barbiere & capital; risk that our gold and other resources will get pillaged; risk that our stack could be 2:1 in his land by the returning axe stack.

I'd say that you're proposing a zero- or negative-sum move with additional risks.

[WilliamLP]

I suspect that we'll 'keep this up' for as long as William can take it.

My opinion of how long that will be rises and falls a lot on a daily basis. But with adjusted expectations this game is turning out to be kind of fun and interesting, and certainly educational!

Pre-turn:




Our forces:
- 2 axes (1 shock), 1 spear, 1 archer "invasion force", plus 2 axes (1 C1) in Barbiere
- Spear + axe north defense. To be moved to F2. The barb warrior that just showed up is really nice free XP for an axe.
- 3 axes + 1 archer east stack. To be moved 1NE. (Ichabod is coming back to the party with his two units, so that force should be across the river I think.)
- 2 archers + 1 spear WT defense force.
- 3 quechuas - one in Turandot, W2 is scouting new horse city, one is with the east stack now.

Turandot can actually 1-turn an axe with overflow from the barracks next turn.

The "bluff called: tail between legs" maneuver: Simply consolidate in Barbiere. Prepare to move out 4 axes + 1 spear in a couple of turns.




Cheetah coming alive! It's about time and should keep Icahbod more honest.

[WilliamLP]

To clarify: I haven't actually played yet.

[MindyMcCready]

I suspect that we'll 'keep this up' for as long as William can take it.

My opinion of how long that will be rises and falls a lot on a daily basis. But with adjusted expectations this game is turning out to be kind of fun and interesting, and certainly educational!

Pre-turn:


Our forces:
- 2 axes (1 shock), 1 spear, 1 archer "invasion force", plus 2 axes (1 C1) in Barbiere
- Spear + axe north defense. To be moved to F2. The barb warrior that just showed up is really nice free XP for an axe.
- 3 axes + 1 archer east stack. To be moved 1NE. (Ichabod is coming back to the party with his two units, so that force should be across the river I think.)
- 2 archers + 1 spear WT defense force.
- 3 quechuas - one in Turandot, W2 is scouting new horse city, one is with the east stack now.

Turandot can actually 1-turn an axe with overflow from the barracks next turn.

So to clarify its the 2nd half ot T74; retep has played and we haven't.

Well my initial thoughs:

-Leave the 3Axe + 1 archer where they are. We can still beat Retep to WilliamTell if he moves in that direction.
-Move 2Axe + 1 spear + 1 archer to Barbiere as stated.
-Move 2 axes SSEE of Barbiere and cross our fingers that he doesn't have that chariot in range. He probably won't, given your feint.

So that may cause him to take a losing shot at the 3 axes + archer. We might see a battle like:
C1 vs Axe 70% chance
Axe vs Axe 75%
Axe vs Axe 75%
Axe vs Archer 28%
Then he'll get to clean up one of them. That's not the best trade that we could possibly achieve, but its also not great for him seeing as he has a very good chance of losing 3 out of 5 axes and no potential for gain.

It would then be our turn for the 2 axes to attack across the river before he gets a chance to heal or promote. He won't see our other 2 axes unless he does have the chariot in rante.

The problem with moving the 3Axe + 1 archer across the river is that, if he retreats, we won't be able to get into the battle without crossing that river again and exposing ourselves to a less favorable battle.

This is if we want to force a battle. If he turns around next turn (SW), I'd be pretty indifferent to forcing a battle simply because we can't get the 3Axe + 1 archer into the battle without risking it happening on flatlands and/or the gangup not happening until after he gets a chance to promote.

[MindyMcCready]

Hmmmm, thinking about your feint:

T73 End - you showed him 2 axes + 1 spear + 1 archer.
T74 Start - Retep moves E-NE and sees the 3 axe + 1 archer stack. So,...is this the first that he's seen of these guys? So probably, for the first time, he'll realize his danger. He'll realize he's about to end up on the bad end of a 2:1. If that's the case, then he'd probably take the shot against our 3 axe + 1 archer because he'll know the troops that disappeared from the WW Barbiere hill have disappeared and can come into play.
-Based on past play, anything that wins would probably be deleted to avoid giving us XP. So that wouldn't be a terrible outcome for us but we could also consider postponing the battle; letting him retreat and keep these troops for our cat-assisted future battle.

If he's feeling suicidal, he could also make a play for the gold which we can't stop him from getting to. If he does that, we'll need a road on the corn and then just wait until we're good and ready for a favorable battle.

I'm pretty indifferent. I do want to force a battle if its completely on our terms. But anything less than a perfect 2:1 and we should probably let him retreat and nail him with cats later.

[WilliamLP]

Sorry, I had already made moves before seeing your post...




I crossed the river, partly because of what Ichabod might be doing.

I didn't make the 2 axe move, just because I think it's too possible that he has a chariot in there somewhere. Though it would be a 1-1 trade, it would be a C1 axe that was lost.

If he retreats back again, well time is on our side I think - very soon we'll have a stack in the west which can simply win.

In the west I mined and left the spear there to protect the workers.

[WilliamLP]

T74 Start - Retep moves E-NE and sees the 3 axe + 1 archer stack. So,...is this the first that he's seen of these guys?

It's a good point, I think it's the first he's seen of what we have to the east. We have a big-time vision advantage, that's for sure.

I may have made close to your amended plan by accident.

Like you, my feeling is that we can force a fight on our terms without having to settle for close to 50-50.

I wonder if we may end up playing a waiting game, with him hanging out on a forest or hill for a while?

Note I'm slowly trying to make a connection over the north from Turandot to WT and new horse city.

[MindyMcCready]

T74 Start - Retep moves E-NE and sees the 3 axe + 1 archer stack. So,...is this the first that he's seen of these guys?

It's a good point, I think it's the first he's seen of what we have to the east. We have a big-time vision advantage, that's for sure.

I may have made close to your amended plan by accident.

Like you, my feeling is that we can force a fight on our terms without having to settle for close to 50-50.

I wonder if we may end up playing a waiting game, with him hanging out on a forest or hill for a while?

Note I'm slowly trying to make a connection over the north from Turandot to WT and new horse city.

That's not that great of a city though. I'd really want to replant Carmen first. Then there's that PFH 3W of LaTravista and that amazing seafoodcity to our north.

Seems like we have some time for the horse city especially with both Ichabod and Cheetah showing 12+K power increasese in rapid succession. A storm is coming.

Also, I know that you seemed ok with Ichabod taking that desert hill,....but that's the one city that I'd want if we were going to have force war with Ichabod anyway. That's a real shot across the bow to Mr. Expander; it controls the sheep, flood plains; it's a killing field in front of it. We get a bunch of cats + walls in there and that's our eyes in the area and really lets us control the region to the West/SW of it. Even if Ichabod managed to make some progress to its West,...the battle wouldn't be over while that city stands. Its not a choke-point but its the next best thing.

Getting a little too ambitious, 2 additional cities - one on the hills by the corn at the very south of the land mass and a city in between and we'd have a solid 2-city front with Ichabod. So don't completely give up on the desert hill. If he moves his phalanx into range, we should definately take a 2:1 even with Ichabod PITA in the area. If we can delay him to some of those key areas we'd have a chance of getting back into the game.

[WilliamLP]

That's not that great of a city though.

Yeah it sucks... but the problem is it's really hard to deal with a stack of solid axes without horses, and retep knows it! It's also really hard to have any map info.

I'd really want to replant Carmen first. Then there's that PFH 3W of LaTravista and that amazing seafoodcity to our north.

Seems like we have some time for the horse city especially with both Ichabod and Cheetah showing 12+K power increasese in rapid succession. A storm is coming.

Just to avoid getting to fixated it's "Traviata", though small font makes it hard to read in the screenshots.