Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore

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[PB 55] Miguelito and Mjmd help Amicalola avoid a repetition of last time

Why 5 turns? Why not finish eating Jowy? Then both you and Commodore would be stronger? Send a in 15 turns message. Also, Lewwyn could finish eating SD.
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Good questions. Very good questions. scared

So, I basically decided to do all of the above on a very long car trip where I had nothing to do but think, and basically whipped myself up into a frenzy of 'now or never' re: Civac. It makes some sense (even if I botched it), and it all started with the realisation that:

We are not going to be able to fully eat Jowy for at least 10 turns. Probably 15-20. Commodore isn't going to be able to take Shimatsuken, from what I can tell. It's now better defended than Elementary was, and we had a better stack. Commodore has hitters aplenty, but still only <10 catapults. That realisation started a chain of what-ifs in my head. 

'If Commodore can't take Shimatsuken, won't he either try and fail, or peace out and leave us hanging?'

'If Commodore does either, won't Jowy be able to coalesce his 2 frightful stacks into 1 literally unkillable stack?'

'If he does that, won't we be eternally bogged down?' 

These are all rhetorical questions I was thinking about on the drive, and they're probably a bit melodramatic, but I actually think the core of them makes sense. We can't kill Jowy, at least not quickly. His crazy longbow strategy, while not game-winning, is basically unkillable. 

Meanwhile, Civac is humming along in a MoM GA, presumably working towards Taj or next-gen military in the process. He doesn't have either yet, but I imagine he will in the next 5-10 turns, and when he gets those, it's probably just Game Over. So I decided that a dogpile very soon necessary if we didn't want the game to end right away. 

Now, this makes a few assumptions, all of them longshots. Here are some:
- Civac is still stoppable. This is actually quite unlikely. 
- Jowy will accept peace. I know I wouldn't, in his situation. I haven't asked yet, because I wanted to get a read on Commodore/Lewwyn and if they were willing to join vs Civac, before I backed out on Commodore here. 
- Civac is planning to fight Gavagai. Of course, this is much less likely now that I have stupidly cancelled borders. smoke
- Lewwyn won't just immediately backstab us. 

I'm not sure that any of these are very likely, let alone all four. lol Well, the Gav one might be safe at least, since it's where his units were all going.

My biggest regret is cancelling the OB when I did. That didn't hurt Civac at all, and instead hurt us. Massive autopilot move; I just figured if we were going to fight him, we might as well hurt him economically beforehand. Uh, while he's in Merc. smoke     If all of the assumptions work out, we could have kept fighting Jowy for another few turns, and kept an eye on Civac's forces for longer. Oh well, add that to the long list of 'PB55 mistakes I won't make again.' The 5 turns until war would give us time to take the last northern cities at least, though we might need to 'add' another 1-2 turns on top.

I've said it many times before during this game, but I really think my biggest weakness in CIV is talking myself up into making rash, hot-headed decisions before I give myself a chance to really consider the alternatives. In other words, mentally spiraling myself into making poor decisions. Which is weird, because I'm not someone with a temper or emotional problems in real life. I don't know why this game brings it out in me so much. It's something I need to work on, badly, in future games. 

I have to admit, I kind of hope that Comm/Lewwyn are unresponsive and we can just keep fighting Jowy until whoever's left concedes. The prospect of a Civac war is quite stressing me out. We'll find out when I play the turn in a few hours.
Past Games: PB51  -  PB55  -  PB56  -  PB58 (Tarkeel's game)  - PB59  -  PB60  -  PB64  -  PB66  -  PB68 (Miguelito's game)     Current Games: None (for now...)
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Just feelings, with only vague knowledge of the facts: I agree that Jowy will very hardly be dead in ten turns, and I could imagine it to be more on the order of 30-40, which for how the game is going means never. What happens btw when our and Pindore's stacks meet in front of Jowy's cap, who gets that? (see PB52 Charriu's capital) With SoZ I definitely think peacing out while he still has an incentive to do so is likely to be worthwhile, although I also would really like to get Cursed Crater first, no idea how realistic that is.

I think canceling OB does not do a lot of damage on this map actually, even if he did not have Merc (as opposed to eg the PB54 map). We have 4 island cities, which is probably above average, but in the end that's still only 4 commerce per turn for him which he can't get from his own island cities (assuming our cities are not significantly over size 10 yet). Not a huge deal.
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Well, Commodore cancelled deals and offered US war with Civac in 5 turns, but not himself. I don't know what that means. Meanwhile, SD didn't cancel deals, and neither did Lewwyn, who also did not return my offer. So, I guess it's back to plonking away at Jowy and waiting for whoever the last holdout is. I guess our subgoal is kicking Jowy off the mainland with Commodore, and seeing if my assessment that he's unkillable is correct?

You are right about OB by the way Mig, that's another reason it wasn't a good idea.

Oh also, Civac built Taj this turn.
Past Games: PB51  -  PB55  -  PB56  -  PB58 (Tarkeel's game)  - PB59  -  PB60  -  PB64  -  PB66  -  PB68 (Miguelito's game)     Current Games: None (for now...)
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I think offering war only on our side is meant so that in case you do something crazy and accept the offer (that has happened) it doesn't harm him. I'd still expect him to be on board.
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I think you are right. Commodore made peace with Jowy, and Jowy offered the same to us. I am a bit loathe to take it while Cursed Crater still stands, but I decided we needed the peace to fight Civac. Gavagai and Commodore at least are on board. Lewwyn is randomly attacking Jowy with a bunch of knights and HAs; I think he is possibly not taking the game very seriously. Mayyybe. tongue Hopefully he won't get mad that we made peace.

So I guess we will see if 3 of our powers combined can fight a Taj powered Civac. I give us a 10% chance. hammer Add that to 15% if Lewwyn joins, but I feel that's unlikely as he gets nothing out of it strategically.

Edit: 2nd GA in 7 turns!
Past Games: PB51  -  PB55  -  PB56  -  PB58 (Tarkeel's game)  - PB59  -  PB60  -  PB64  -  PB66  -  PB68 (Miguelito's game)     Current Games: None (for now...)
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Wait, is Lewynn going through our lands to charge with his 2 movers into Jowy's longbows? Wild. Maybe they were supposed to help us so we're free to fight civac? Or maybe they ar emeant for civac? Has Lewynn actually gone for Jowy?
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Yeah, I agree it's very weird. My big worry is that they're going to try and hit us from behind, but maybe they were to help with Jowy??? I'm not sure. I think most likely he's just dicking around. Lewwyn actually sent me a 'him war with Jowy' offer a few turns ago, but I mostly ignored it assuming he was just trolling us. I probably should have told you guys about it at the time, but I was already conscious of how much I was spamming.

It's not a serious attack, like 3 knights and 8 HAs.

Edit:



More pictures will come next turn when we gear up to fight Civac in earnest. For now, rest assured that I am whipping units like mad (we were much further ahead in score 5 turns ago) and building units in most placely, generally knights or siege. We have actually jumped the 3rd in power!
Past Games: PB51  -  PB55  -  PB56  -  PB58 (Tarkeel's game)  - PB59  -  PB60  -  PB64  -  PB66  -  PB68 (Miguelito's game)     Current Games: None (for now...)
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Civac just dumped like 200 EP into us lol. I'm not sure if he gets city visibility (he certainly gets tech), but if he didn't now he'll get city visibility soon. So I am spending 20% for a turn, hopefully he does not make me spend more. Other people are attacking you soon too, civac!!
Past Games: PB51  -  PB55  -  PB56  -  PB58 (Tarkeel's game)  - PB59  -  PB60  -  PB64  -  PB66  -  PB68 (Miguelito's game)     Current Games: None (for now...)
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Gav+Commodore at least are on board. Lewwyn is moving a smattering of knights (not many) towards Civac too. I don't think this will work, but at least we will get to try!! I sent an offer to AT as well, I would love to see him get some small revenge by razing a coastal city or something. smile

Superdeath's huge stack is hovering around our 3 way border with Lewwyn. It's making me a bit nervous, but I imagine he is just waiting to fight Lewwyn off again. I feel I am jumping at shadows in all this buildup. SD could honestly probably take out even a very large Khmer stack with his own, which may be why Lewwyn has seemingly given up and decided to send his knights all over the place. On this turn though, thanks to all my whipping, he actually overtook us on the scoreboard, to be in second place! crazyeye
Past Games: PB51  -  PB55  -  PB56  -  PB58 (Tarkeel's game)  - PB59  -  PB60  -  PB64  -  PB66  -  PB68 (Miguelito's game)     Current Games: None (for now...)
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