[SPOILERS] Small Wunders and Izzy of Inca: The fat lady sings

[WilliamLP]

- 4 axes and 2 spears in Traviata. 2 axes on the fork tile. I hope Retep is crazy enough to move 5 unguarded chariots to the silver tile, but I'm pretty sure he's smarter than that. The fact that he's bringing and archer and a spear to defend the stack means he's in this for the long haul.

- Turandot 1-turns a spear both because we got a chop and overflow from a chariot is too much and would be a waste, and another promoted spear will be nice to have with 5 chariots running around.

- WT's borders expanded. (I guess the barb city wasn't in view if it spawned before the border expansion!) It's whipping a chariot.

- Bacchus has a scout that has probably seen our spear 2S2E of Barber, so I'd be surprised if Bacchus kills our warrior. If he does he loses his chariot.

- New Carmen will be planted next turn. The name tells Ichabod and Cheetah exactly where the new city is, and I'm not sure if I should bother choosing a new one.

[MindyMcCready]

We should definately give 'New Carmen' a different name. I'd like to eventually rename it back to Carmen or New Carmen, but in the meantimes there's no point in inviting attack to our weakest location. Pop borders, then rename.

About killing that chariot,....his city is way too close for us to not expect reinforcements. And if he has seen our spear, then that's just bait. Wait for the right chance to use worker + spear + axe so that we can get a clean kill and send him a clear message.

On a related note, if we can't ward off those chariots then that barb city won't be there in 10T to grow. So we could take a shot now at the city or wait for Bacchus to discover the city and try to kill off some wounded chariots. I expect Bacchus to get sloppy and jump at the opportunity to kill the city once he sees it. Like I said, he's probably baiting us right now, but he'll lose his head when he sees the opportunity to deny us a city. So workers + 2 spears + 2 axes is a high priority in that area. (but we can't afford to lose troops while Retep's got 13 units walking through our territory.

About Retep's attack:
This approach angle is about the least effective attack that Retep could make right now that borders have popped. I give it almost 0% chance that he's going to move any futher toward LT unless he's suicidal (which is possible). He's probably faking us out a bit but will then move the triple fork location. I would expect some trick up Retep's sleeve. But,....

Graph T87 appears to give Retep 107 power.
Tech = 24K (Hunting=2K + Mining=2K + AH=2K + Wheel=4K + Archery=6K + BW=8K)
Pop=6K (guesstimate) = Capital(6?)=3K + CopperCity(4?)=2K + HorseCity(2?)=1K
Stack = 63K (6axe x 6K + 5Chariots x 4K + 1 Spear x 4K + 1 Archer x 3k)

Unaccounted for: 14K spread out over 3 cities.

So we're talking about less than 2 archers per city. Retep has to have a spear + archer in the copper city since that's so close to Bacchus so that leaves just 7K in his capital + horse city. So I'd recommend that our chariots stay hidden and await opportunities.

Also, we know that he doesn't have HBR yet,...unless he's got HBR (10K) and has only 4K power spread out over three cities. :LOL: We'll need to look for that 10K power jump every turn. If we don't see it in the next 10T then we can assume that he went for Construction instead.

I'm also going to point out that Retep is once again all but handing Bacchus his cities. I know that we've agreed to disagree on taking out Retep so I'm going to stick to only 1 sentence: The highest probability scenario in my mind is that Bacchus is sitting in Retep's cities 10T-20T from now.

Do the spears have any promos?
Chariot vs Spear (Full fort): 59% that we have 88+ HP. 79% chance that we have 76+ HP. 91% chance that we have 64+ HP.
-Second battle. 90% if 88HP; 86% if 76HP; 79% if 64HP.
-So 2:1 is about as safe as any battle can get. 3:1 is overkill, but why not if it's in the area.

Can you post power graph? For each turn maybe while Retep's doing his thing.

[MindyMcCready]

Just to add to that,....

Our chariots should be in a stack rather than spread out. Better to keep them hidden that way and also better to overcome a single spear defender. Our best location for the chariots is probably 'New Carmen' at this time. It's only 1T to Barbiere and less than 2T to LT.

[WilliamLP]

About killing that chariot,....his city is way too close for us to not expect reinforcements. And if he has seen our spear, then that's just bait. Wait for the right chance to use worker + spear + axe so that we can get a clean kill and send him a clear message.

I'm very very reluctant to draw first blood against Bacchus. There hasn't been fighting yet and I'd like to at least give a chance at having a peaceful relationship (even a very awkward tense passive-aggressive one).

It is pretty unfortunate that he's allowed to get away with having 50% of the power of a guy right on his borders.

I don't think Bacchus can try and hold the barb city (eventually once it's size two). It's way too far from his borders, he can't get one movers there, and if he takes it with chariots we just immediately take it with a spear or two. But it might not have any chance to live to size 2, so it would be good to have a couple of units there to take the free XP if someone else threatens it.

About Retep's attack:
This approach angle is about the least effective attack that Retep could make right now that borders have popped. I give it almost 0% chance that he's going to move any futher toward LT unless he's suicidal (which is possible). He's probably faking us out a bit but will then move the triple fork location. I would expect some trick up Retep's sleeve. But,....

Yeah, if the best he can do is take that stack and march it 1 tile at a time it will be ages until it can get anywhere that can do damage. Traviata at +45% defense and axes that out-promote his is going to be near impossible for him to crack.

By the way, Retep's graph went up again, and there's someone tied with us at 121k in the more up to date demo screen, which is likely to be him again.

So we're talking about less than 2 archers per city. Retep has to have a spear + archer in the copper city since that's so close to Bacchus so that leaves just 7K in his capital + horse city. So I'd recommend that our chariots stay hidden and await opportunities.

Yeah, I'd like to build up a stack of at least 5 before showing them, and then showing them would involve wiping out a stack of axes, ideally.

Also, we know that he doesn't have HBR yet,...unless he's got HBR (10K) and has only 4K power spread out over three cities. :LOL: We'll need to look for that 10K power jump every turn. If we don't see it in the next 10T then we can assume that he went for Construction instead.

Yeah. Remember how long it took us to get math though, and how pathetic his GNP is in comparison?

I'm also going to point out that Retep is once again all but handing Bacchus his cities. I know that we've agreed to disagree on taking out Retep so I'm going to stick to only 1 sentence: The highest probability scenario in my mind is that Bacchus is sitting in Retep's cities 10T-20T from now.

I don't know if Bacchus has any way to know that Retep is as underdefended as he his, and from his point of view it would be blindly marching into someone with twice his power. But it's possible he could infer it! I'd still call it a display of terrible sportsmanship by Retep to not defend his capital but I could see it happening. The only silver lining to that outcome might be that Bacchus may actually be trying to do well in this game in the long term. (Or has a greater than 0% chance of trying to do so. )

Do the spears have any promos?

No. The new one that will come out will be C1 of course.

Chariot vs Spear (Full fort): 59% that we have 88+ HP. 79% chance that we have 76+ HP. 91% chance that we have 64+ HP.
-Second battle. 90% if 88HP; 86% if 76HP; 79% if 64HP.
-So 2:1 is about as safe as any battle can get. 3:1 is overkill, but why not if it's in the area.

Thanks, it's good to know that 2-1 isn't a good deal for him. I doubt we could get more than 1 spear to full fortify though - they need to be pretty mobile to be vigilant about other chariot entrances. (E.g. I can see him trying to run a chariot stack at Barbiere while doing this.)

Can you post power graph? For each turn maybe while Retep's doing his thing.

Sure, I will next turn.

[MindyMcCready]

I'm very very reluctant to draw first blood against Bacchus. There hasn't been fighting yet and I'd like to at least give a chance at having a peaceful relationship (even a very awkward tense passive-aggressive one).

Well, if you prefer bleeding over drawing blood what can I say. :LOL:

He's made a run at us once. He's currently probing us for weakness. And he's almost certainly going to take (raze) that barb city - a very important interest of ours right from under our nose. 10T from now that *would* be our city. And 9T from now or 11T from now he would raze it if he had the chance. He's doing everything that he can, given his power and opportunities to set us back.

I also think it's fair to indicate our claim the those south area that he's running his chariots through. How else do you intend to stop him from doing these aggressive-aggressive (nothing passive about his actions or intentions) other than send him a military signal?

In other words, unlike you, he has absolutely no interest in peace. 'Peace of the gun' is the only peace that we'll ever have with him.

Well, I know by now that there's no point arguing. There are certain things that we see differently and that's that.

Traviata at +45% defense and axes that out-promote his is going to be near impossible for him to crack.

By the way, Retep's graph went up again, and there's someone tied with us at 121k in the more up to date demo screen, which is likely to be him again.

If that's Retep with 121K power then that's a big jump. 14K. I have done nothing to evaluate when he might get to HBR so I literally have no idea, but that would be the kind of 10K plus that we should be watching for.

If we see multiples of 6K then, its pretty clear that there are going to be HA catching up to the rest. HA onto of that stack means that its not vulnerable to anything that we've got. Triple fork here he comes.

Yeah, I'd like to build up a stack of at least 5 before showing them, and then showing them would involve wiping out a stack of axes, ideally.

There you go again. Your 'ideal' doesn't at all involve razing a defenseless horse city or capturing a productive capital.

We'll just stick to our borders no matter how unprotected his cities are and let those 3 cities produce units until the end of time until ownership eventually passes over to 'our good buddy' Bacchus.

Yeah. Remember how long it took us to get math though, and how pathetic his GNP is in comparison?

Yeah, no clue. One of us should probably try to estimate this. Aside from giving an ETA on HBR an estimate could also give us a time-frame to rule out HBR and worry about Construction instead.

I'm also going to point out that Retep is once again all but handing Bacchus his cities. I know that we've agreed to disagree on taking out Retep so I'm going to stick to only 1 sentence: The highest probability scenario in my mind is that Bacchus is sitting in Retep's cities 10T-20T from now.

I don't know if Bacchus has any way to know that Retep is as underdefended as he his, and from his point of view it would be blindly marching into someone with twice his power.

Unless he's got no clue on how to read a power chart, he'll figure it out if we kill Retep's stack.

I'd still call it a display of terrible sportsmanship by Retep to not defend his capital but I could see it happening.

Yeah, I can see that happening too.....like right now! :LOL:

The only silver lining to that outcome might be that Bacchus may actually be trying to do well in this game in the long term. (Or has a greater than 0% chance of trying to do so. )

I don't follow this at all. I see no reason or evidence that Bacchus isn't trying to do well in the long term. Doing well means hurting us when and where he can do so easily; staking a claim to the south of Carmen; taking Retep's cities if we're not going to. And if he can get away with it, staying in builder mode while carrying little to no army and simultaneously accomplishing all of the above. :LOL:

I'd guess you miswrote Retep, but I can't see what you mean by that either.

[MindyMcCready]

Chariot vs Spear (No fort, no promo) In LT:
-55% that we have 87+ HP
-Second battle, 88.6% of kill (10% retreat)
-76% that we have 74+ HP:
-Second Battle, 84.8% of kill, 9.4% retreat
-89% that we have 61+ HP:
-Second Battle, 74% of kill, 8.25% retreat

HA (no promo) vs Spear (No fort, no promo) In LT:
-58% that we have 70+HP
-Second Battle, 46.5% kill, 41.8% lose, 11.6% reteat.

[WilliamLP]

I also think it's fair to indicate our claim the those south area that he's running his chariots through. How else do you intend to stop him from doing these aggressive-aggressive (nothing passive about his actions or intentions) other than send him a military signal?

The same thing I'd do if we were actually at war: have enough defenders around that it's not in his best interest to actually strike. I do think Bacchus is trying to do well in the game, and a rational neighbour motivated by self-interest is one I can live with.

In other words, unlike you, he has absolutely no interest in peace. 'Peace of the gun' is the only peace that we'll ever have with him.

I'm not sure about that! We haven't had a chance to see but I like probing for weakness a lot too, just the way he did... And I'm pretty peaceful player in the spectrum.

If that's Retep with 121K power then that's a big jump. 14K. I have done nothing to evaluate when he might get to HBR so I literally have no idea, but that would be the kind of 10K plus that we should be watching for.

It would also go with a score increase, 12 points for a classical tech, and I'll definitely notice that.

There you go again. Your 'ideal' doesn't at all involve razing a defenseless horse city or capturing a productive capital.

Honestly pillaging a couple of roads actually hurts him a lot more than razing that city - that would allow him to plant it somewhere useful! And yeah, taking out another 5 axes for free and getting the great general and promotions is worth a lot more to us than either.

We'll just stick to our borders no matter how unprotected his cities are and let those 3 cities produce units until the end of time until ownership eventually passes over to 'our good buddy' Bacchus.

I'm laughing over here, for what it's worth.

Yeah, no clue. One of us should probably try to estimate this. Aside from giving an ETA on HBR an estimate could also give us a time-frame to rule out HBR and worry about Construction instead.

It's insanely long, I know this for sure. Even longer if he moves that stack out of his borders. We've been going for it almost as fast as possible (remember we started as the number 1 GNP power in the world and had good hut luck), and we couldn't have had it for another 12-15 turns or so from now.

Unless he's got no clue out to read a power chart, he'll figure it out if we kill Retep's stack.

If we kill his whole stack, sure!

I don't follow this at all. I see no reason or evidence that Bacchus isn't trying to do well in the long term. Doing well means hurting us when and where he can do so easily; staking a claim to the south of Carmen; taking Retep's cities if we're not going to. And if he can get away with it, staying in builder mode while carrying little to no army and simultaneously accomplishing all of the above. :LOL:

What I meant is that at least dealing with Bacchus on the border would have a chance to be a relationship with someone who is trying to do well in the game, which is better than what we have now.

"Doing well means hurting us when and where he can do so easily" - exactly, which means all we have to do is make it less profitable for him to hurt us than to be doing something else. That is a lot less resources than defending someone who wants to hurt us regardless of whether it's a profitable option compared to doing something else. It's the joke about how you don't have to outrun the bear - just outrun the other guy. (But here "the other guy" is probably expansion, so it's not a very good joke...)

[MindyMcCready]

BAH,.....self interest is what's spoiling the game here in RB.

[WilliamLP]

I am formally requesting for the game to be paused and for the game to be reloaded to Bacchus's save for this current turn, 675 BC. Please do not play turns and advance to the next turn, it will have to be redone anyways due to the reload. I apologize for the inconvenience. Also would like to reiterate, if you feel like there has been any sort of game bug that has affected you unfairly, do not hesitate to contact me, and I will mediate the situation.

I wonder what's up with that... since we have unit interactions it would be nice to have some explanation.

Also, I wonder if it is a bug or is something related to a double move and a neighbour as-yet unknown to us.

Edit: Ah it appears to involve an interaction between Commodore and The Black Sword, somewhere far far away.

[WilliamLP]

Point form turn report:




Retep did the least surprising move: marching the whole stack forward once. Six axes and three spears, and better promotions than him, on a hill with culture, makes the city pretty safe.

I planted Manon, kin of Carmen by being another French opera tragic heroine with controversial sexual morals.

We have 1 chariot now, 2 next turn, and possibly 6 the turn after that. A benefit of the first half of the turn split is that we could produce in Traviata and immediately move away so retep doesn't see the build (unless he plays last of all).




So it's Ichabod, not Retep, who tied us for the lead. Bacchus is building military - this either can be playing catchup, keeping Retep honest, a dagger aimed at Manon, or Mindy's prediction coming true!

I moved the quecha toward the west, but I wish I hadn't - I really think we need to get a unit back on that hill 2S2W of Manon to have advance notice of what's coming.




This is inflated by religious culture but it still shows we have some research punch when switching to 100%. We'll see Retep take a dive again after move 13 units out of his borders.

Also, we're going to take losses but that stack is going to get seriously messed up after getting hit with 6 chariots and then 6 promoted axes.