to cheer myself up, let's speculate baselessly about chev's solution space, which i think is getting pretty small now and is appreciably smaller than last turn. here are things we have reason to believe will NOT work:
- any zero-chop plan, which, because we just got our fourth tech last turn and had a science edge on them from Geneva, notably precludes any scenario where they didn't prioritize mining research. but since they got the craftsmanship inspiration i'd guess they do indeed have mining.
- any one-chop plan. this isn't necessarily true, strictly speaking, but the corner case in which it fails is: chev's capital is size 3, working max hammers with either a trader already in place (a weird decision for a capital) or starving by working 3 PFH, and has overflow from the last project, and the chop is at the second city.
- any two-chop plan where the chops are more than two worker moves apart. we know they DID NOT chop last turn, because if they had it would have finished either the holy site or a second project in the capital (assuming it's size 3 and making at least 12HPT). so if their plan relies on two chops, the best they can do is chop t35 - move t36 - move t37 - chop t38, assuming the builder is already in place. if they do not chop next turn either, their two chops will need to be from adjacent tiles (since it always takes a turn to move onto woods)
- most plans where their capital resembles TAD's and is still size 2. on the bright side this is somewhat plausible - they founded their second city on t23 and got an empire score increase on t32, consistent with a 9-turn growth. they would have to have worked a 1-yield tile for a significant amount of time to NOT have a size 2 second city, which seems a little out of character for chev. but on the not-bright side this doesn't really preclude any of the below (as long as their capital grows in the next few turns), it just complicates the math somewhat...
sadly all of the following are plans that WILL work:
- a two-chop plan where both chops come at the capital. two chops for chev are worth 58 hammers, if we are generous and assume a fourth civic pop next turn. three projects cost 39 * 3 = 117 hammers. so the capital would have to make (117-58)/5 = 11.8 hammers for this to work, which is pretty plausible. they also don't need a second holy site for this as they will have exactly 24 on t38 when they finish the last chop. uh oh... i have a bad feeling about this
on the bright side they can only escalate their chop yield (by 4) if and only if they simultaneously escalate their project cost (by 3) so really they will need 8ish more hammers than this. but they can do that with a 13 hammer capital (PFH + PFH + GFH + plains hill + palace + urban planning) and either a little bit of overflow from the last project or a little starvation. in my opinion this is very likely what their plan is, i don't think they would have committed to a project unless they were reeeeeally really confident they would beat us
- a two-chop plan where both chops come at the second city. at the second city a project costs 39, and a chop is worth 29 if they get a civic next turn, so city has to make 20 hammers over 4 turns to finish the projects, easy. this doesn't work for teru because we have one fewer turn due to the tiebreaker, and its production is too weak since it's just growing this turn, but chev's city could do it
- a two-chop plan where both chops come at different cities. if they chop into their second city they will have to get 10 hammers over 4 turns to finish one project, trivial, and if they chop at the first city, they will need 39 * 2 - 29 = 49 hammers over 4 turns to finish two projects, feasible.
had we figured out how to save an extra turn i think none of these would have worked, but now they all will. there is a big opening for chev shaped like our Teutoberg Forest plan - exactly that will work for them, and they don't even need the second city to do anything, just for the capital to finish 3 projects in 5 turns. dang it. if they don't finish a tech or civic next turn (and i admit they probably won't since the next civic is EE and we just got our fourth tech last turn with a science CS envoy), it gets a little hairier as they will get only 25 hammers from the chops and will need to make up the rest somehow. but this is probably doable with overflow...
so in all honesty we will get a pretty strong hint about what the outcome will be on this NEXT turn. if they finish NEITHER a holy site nor a project, they definitely haven't chopped and now need a builder in place for chops on adjacent tiles, possible but much less likely than a Teutoberg scenario. but if they DO finish a holy site, or ESPECIALLY if they finish a project, that is a strong indication that they HAVE chopped, which they would not be doing unless they are guaranteed to beat us now that they know our exact ETA.
weirdly that didn't cheer me up at all
- any zero-chop plan, which, because we just got our fourth tech last turn and had a science edge on them from Geneva, notably precludes any scenario where they didn't prioritize mining research. but since they got the craftsmanship inspiration i'd guess they do indeed have mining.
- any one-chop plan. this isn't necessarily true, strictly speaking, but the corner case in which it fails is: chev's capital is size 3, working max hammers with either a trader already in place (a weird decision for a capital) or starving by working 3 PFH, and has overflow from the last project, and the chop is at the second city.
- any two-chop plan where the chops are more than two worker moves apart. we know they DID NOT chop last turn, because if they had it would have finished either the holy site or a second project in the capital (assuming it's size 3 and making at least 12HPT). so if their plan relies on two chops, the best they can do is chop t35 - move t36 - move t37 - chop t38, assuming the builder is already in place. if they do not chop next turn either, their two chops will need to be from adjacent tiles (since it always takes a turn to move onto woods)
- most plans where their capital resembles TAD's and is still size 2. on the bright side this is somewhat plausible - they founded their second city on t23 and got an empire score increase on t32, consistent with a 9-turn growth. they would have to have worked a 1-yield tile for a significant amount of time to NOT have a size 2 second city, which seems a little out of character for chev. but on the not-bright side this doesn't really preclude any of the below (as long as their capital grows in the next few turns), it just complicates the math somewhat...
sadly all of the following are plans that WILL work:
- a two-chop plan where both chops come at the capital. two chops for chev are worth 58 hammers, if we are generous and assume a fourth civic pop next turn. three projects cost 39 * 3 = 117 hammers. so the capital would have to make (117-58)/5 = 11.8 hammers for this to work, which is pretty plausible. they also don't need a second holy site for this as they will have exactly 24 on t38 when they finish the last chop. uh oh... i have a bad feeling about this
on the bright side they can only escalate their chop yield (by 4) if and only if they simultaneously escalate their project cost (by 3) so really they will need 8ish more hammers than this. but they can do that with a 13 hammer capital (PFH + PFH + GFH + plains hill + palace + urban planning) and either a little bit of overflow from the last project or a little starvation. in my opinion this is very likely what their plan is, i don't think they would have committed to a project unless they were reeeeeally really confident they would beat us- a two-chop plan where both chops come at the second city. at the second city a project costs 39, and a chop is worth 29 if they get a civic next turn, so city has to make 20 hammers over 4 turns to finish the projects, easy. this doesn't work for teru because we have one fewer turn due to the tiebreaker, and its production is too weak since it's just growing this turn, but chev's city could do it
- a two-chop plan where both chops come at different cities. if they chop into their second city they will have to get 10 hammers over 4 turns to finish one project, trivial, and if they chop at the first city, they will need 39 * 2 - 29 = 49 hammers over 4 turns to finish two projects, feasible.
had we figured out how to save an extra turn i think none of these would have worked, but now they all will. there is a big opening for chev shaped like our Teutoberg Forest plan - exactly that will work for them, and they don't even need the second city to do anything, just for the capital to finish 3 projects in 5 turns. dang it. if they don't finish a tech or civic next turn (and i admit they probably won't since the next civic is EE and we just got our fourth tech last turn with a science CS envoy), it gets a little hairier as they will get only 25 hammers from the chops and will need to make up the rest somehow. but this is probably doable with overflow...
so in all honesty we will get a pretty strong hint about what the outcome will be on this NEXT turn. if they finish NEITHER a holy site nor a project, they definitely haven't chopped and now need a builder in place for chops on adjacent tiles, possible but much less likely than a Teutoberg scenario. but if they DO finish a holy site, or ESPECIALLY if they finish a project, that is a strong indication that they HAVE chopped, which they would not be doing unless they are guaranteed to beat us now that they know our exact ETA.
weirdly that didn't cheer me up at all
