November 1st, 2009, 12:04
Posts: 879
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Joined: Jul 2008
If she moves her warrior to the hill and we move to the capital she would have a 68.1% chance to win. I did a test in the worldbuilder and the attacker lost in my test  Wonder if it is worth the risk. We should be able to build a warrior before she can get to the capital.
November 1st, 2009, 16:14
(This post was last modified: November 1st, 2009, 16:38 by plako.)
Posts: 6,893
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I would prefer peaceful solution assuming she accepts that we settle the area between our capitals and long enough NAP (~ turn 100 so that we've time to research Construction). It seems to me that we've rights for the area between us since she did settle 4 tiles towards us. If she wouldn't have come this direction, there would have been room for her to settle 1 city towards us. If she seems very co-operative and possibly game long friend I could consider giving up some of the area between us.
Concerning immediate war I'm not big fan of it, but if it seems like she will be hostile that is probably our best alternative. We might as well try to win the war immediately or die while doing it. I've not much intrest to wait for him to get Praets and then either kill us or force us to build huge army that will drag us down. Even if we would win the war fast, I wouldn't like our situation that much. Granted we've very good shot at winning this game, but it wouldn't be that pleasant for us. Having 2 capitals this early would make us target of everyone else.
November 1st, 2009, 20:54
Posts: 879
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Joined: Jul 2008
wow no comments from the lurkers. Still havent got in touch with LiPing but am going to try and negotiate a long term NAP and focus her expansion east while we focus west.
November 2nd, 2009, 02:06
Posts: 13,563
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Joined: Oct 2009
Broker33 Wrote:wow no comments from the lurkers. Still havent got in touch with LiPing but am going to try and negotiate a long term NAP and focus her expansion east while we focus west.
We're all lurking intensely at the moment. I don't think there are any comments because noone really wants to influence any decisions at this stage of the game.
November 2nd, 2009, 07:26
Posts: 879
Threads: 3
Joined: Jul 2008
Ok had a conversation with LiPing and she definatly wants to gamble. I will sum things up here as there is a wall of text below.
She will agree to a 60t NAP with an agreement not to settle the area between us until we come to a later settling agreement. With the understanding we have a natural claim to the area.
She would prefer to take the coin flip which is about 60/40 her favor but as she says good pot odds for us to try it. She is also willing to give us incentives to choose the coin flip.
I will leave this up to you as I have another game I am in. I am ok with either the NAP would prefer longer or the coin flip and take her capital if we win. She will also give us demo info if she loses and a short NAP if she wins.
She has met another neighbor who also wants a NAP.
Read through if you get a chance. She is a gambler. Dont know if she would make a good long term ally. Will honor agreements but once they end.....
Quote:me: You around?
9 minutes
9:50 PM liping.rb: now, yes
9:52 PM yourself?
me: yep
sorry was watching tv
9:53 PM I talked with plako earlier today
9:54 PM So I have my parameters for a discussion on the closeness of our capitals
liping.rb: okay, I had some possible proposals, but you first
9:55 PM me: Well initial thoughts are that we should be able to settle in the area between us since you moved your capital west and have more room to your east
It is arguably our settling area
9:56 PM liping.rb: Admittably, I thought about that, which was going to come to my second proposal
me: We would also like to avoid an early destructive war to both our civs
9:57 PM liping.rb: I agree with that one, I have no interest in sitting making a huge string of guys with clubs, if we both do that then we just end up with mutually assured destruction
9:58 PM me: true and if we were to survive an immediate rush we would have two capitals and a huge target on us and it is not worth hinging the game on a bad dice roll
9:59 PM liping.rb: actually, I would rather have the dice roll right now if we were going to do that, and there is the possibility of just razing it
I mean, I know that I have the agressive warrior and so it's 68.1% to me, but I don't think you get bad pot odds on it
me: Yes I did the calcualtion and actually my warrior survived in the wb test I ran
10:00 PM liping.rb: if you win that one, I am guaranteed dead, if I win, the same can't be said for you
me: True if you win you will still need to defeat a warrior in our capital
10:01 PM liping.rb: and I don't think I can reach in time from that position, I'll probably need to sit and heal it and as you say, it is 8 squares away
me: Again we have worked through the scenarios and believe it is in both our best interest to move away from an early conflict
liping.rb: plus it would be quite hillarious I think, when people read about me trying to convince you to attack me
10:02 PM me: I am sure there are discussion saying we have as you say good pot odds and should go for it but it is not our prefered path
liping.rb: okay, so let me go to the next option I have in mind
10:03 PM first I would like to offer some information, because as I said, I really don't want to sit here going warrior warrior warrior etc
10:04 PM me: Yes I would like to hear your proposals and info I have given our basic framework
liping.rb: firstly I know someone made a warrior on turn 5, and I know it wasn't you
10:05 PM me: How do you calculate that with so many players and no demographics?
Just curiosity
liping.rb: you can do it directly from the demographics window
10:06 PM you can calculate how many hammers people are producing, etc
10:07 PM so I would like to put fowards that I feel I have a fairly good alarm system if you try and sneak-warrior me
me: Interesting. As I said dont know how to do that. Not disputing you but it does seem to need alot of guesswork
liping.rb: secondly I have a plains-forest-deer, so I can start one as soon as you finish yours, and it will be ready in time
10:08 PM me: I personally am not the sneak attack type if we come to an agreement I will honor it
liping.rb: since it's a 2/2/0 tile, it'll be less damaging to my growth, and I do have the aggressive guys, so I feel that if we do end up openly deciding to war now, I might have a slightly better time of it
10:09 PM but I don't want to explore this option at all, merely trying to dissuade us from that path
me: unless of course the current warrior survives
liping.rb: yes, if we do that path, however I am more in favour of that one
10:10 PM but now, for more peaceful suggestions?
me: Yes lets hear the peaceful solutions
10:11 PM liping.rb: okay, well, first, have you met anyone else from your opposite side?
me: Not yet you are the first we have met.
10:12 PM liping.rb: okay, more free info, I met someone else's unit from the other direction
me: as I feared we are all close
may I ask who
10:13 PM liping.rb: at this moment, I'll just say it's someone I really didn't want to be next to, but I am willing to come back to that later depending on what we decide here
10:14 PM me: damn connection
liping.rb: message still go through?
me: may I ask who
nope
liping.rb: at this moment, I'll just say it's someone I really didn't want to be next to, but I am willing to come back to that later depending on what we decide here
me: I was getting juice
You kept up with the other pitboss game?
10:15 PM liping.rb: yeah, but I lost interest in it after the original players started to leave, I felt it just lacked the right dynamic after they were gone
me: then you would agree I follow through with my commitments and agreements?
10:16 PM liping.rb: certainly, I would expect everyone to, really
me: Yes it is nice to expect people but much less stressful to know
and easier to negotiate
liping.rb: after all, if anyone decides to go around haphazardly violating whatever arguments they make, no one will ever trust them again later
10:17 PM me: true but there is always delaying tactics. such as saying you will do somehting then delaying till its not needed. I could have done that with the HA's I sent to help the lins in thier war but I whiped civ to meet the commitment
10:18 PM liping.rb: and that is where I hate diplomacy
I like things to be very black and white
me: I would like to hear your ideas. I am very much a letter and spirit of the law person. Take both into account
10:19 PM liping.rb: First, In regards to agreeing away a section of land I can't see, I find it hard to do, I would like to see what there is there first (food etc)
10:20 PM me: we have seen some silks and a cow so far
liping.rb: and get a better idea if it could be split with two cities on different vertical height, for example
me: good faith move on my part
liping.rb: now obviously, I can't really just walk over there if you have a warrior near me, and you would have a pretty dim view of me walking a warrior towards you
10:21 PM me: true
liping.rb: and perhaps after all, you might want to continue around my border to meet the person on the other side
10:22 PM so I propose the possibility, that we immediately declare war, and then a 10 turn peace and explore enough of that to make an informed decision
10:24 PM I do understand that you're not thrilled that I've moved here
but I would like to say, if that particular spot of land was good for settling, I'd be there, and not here, after all
me: While that makes sense I dont see it as necessary. As I originally stated that area is arguably our natural settling area. If we have an agreement we can include resource trades.
10:25 PM liping.rb: well, it doesn't omit resource trades, it's just a way of enforcing a 10 turn peace so that we can be guaranteed that we won't 'ninja' each other's capitals
10:26 PM me: Also I feel that since we are so close and most likely have others as close we should focus our settling efforts to grab as much land away from each other as possible.
liping.rb: I am on board with that, but we will need to do something with it eventually, no?
10:27 PM me: yes that is true. Our initial position is that it should be ours. That position could change depending on the land and circumstances of our relationship
10:28 PM liping.rb: actually, how big an area are we talking?
10:29 PM like... how far south does the coast slope, and what's our position to each other vertically?
me: land between us verticle strip 8 tiles wide
liping.rb: verticle, or horizontal?
(and this is why, I want to see the area, lol)
me: I am unsure of the land north of our position I am assuming it does not go far
10:30 PM liping.rb: hmm okay, two questions then
I notice that the coast tends to run southwards gradually, is that the case still over at your end, or does it curve northwards or something else?
10:31 PM me: It runs straight west to east by us
liping.rb: okay
am I then, located further north than you are?
10:32 PM me: yes not far but north
liping.rb: and by the area between us, do you mean in a straight line?
10:33 PM me: I am talking two dimentional east west encompassing land north and south for now
10:34 PM liping.rb: hmm let me think
okay, supposing say, we are 8 squares distant left to right, and 4 top to bottom
would that mean that for example, you want to plant a city 4 squares east and 2 squares north of your capital?
10:35 PM me: coast curves north by you?
liping.rb: yes
10:36 PM me: I dont want to bog down on the land discussion without more info on how far norht the land reaches. I have some suspicions but need to confirm them
Besides the war/peace option what other thoughts did you have?
10:37 PM liping.rb: the coinflip 
me: not that. enforced 10 turn peace
10:38 PM liping.rb: oh, well, that was as far as I got really, I figured it was better to work out if you were on board with it or had decided to take the cointoss
because that would save a lot of time
me: Ok here is my thoughts
10:39 PM We are not interested in a short term peace only to be swarmed by agressive praets
would rather take the coin flip now then the slow death later
10:40 PM We would propose a long term NAP also that you would not settle west of your position and we will not settle east of ours although we feel the land should be ours it is in both our best interest to focus in the other direction
liping.rb: can you give me an idea of what you mean by long term?
10:41 PM me: Once other boarders are known and land is scouted we can discuss city placement between us but I have a feeling you have squeezed us in pretty good already
liping.rb: because similarily, I don't want to be signing a peace just to get run over by hwacha and elephants when construction comes in
me: I doubt there will be ivory on this map
10:43 PM 100 turns for initial signing allow us both to focus on others. Also is a good basis for a close working araingement (wow I spell bad)
liping.rb: but yeah, can you define long term please?
is this to come before or after the 10t scout, if we are doing that?
10:44 PM me: I dont see the need for the enforced scout. If it makes you feel more comfortable we can do it but I trust if we have a nap there will be no ninja attacks
10:45 PM who knows you may be able to visit your other neighbor with agreesive praets and hwatcha
liping.rb: the thing is, I feel I can't really commit to the nap of that length when we both can't see any resources, and I can't see the area
me: As I said in the land directly between us are some silk and a cow
10:46 PM As for the north our original scouting plan is to swing north and then west
liping.rb: I can see the silk, but I mean, neither of us can see horses or copper or iron
10:47 PM me: true but without a nap coinflip seems to become a better choice
liping.rb: I am actually quite on board with the coinflip, if you would like it
10:48 PM if I die, better to go out early, with no hard feelings
me: As I said neither of us will settle the land between us until a settling agreement can be put in place but we do believe the land is ours
You do have more land to your east and another neighbor who will want to grab it
10:49 PM I am trying to build a framework for a long term working relaitonship. Not base the game on a coin flip.
10:50 PM liping.rb: may I ask, if I do not take the nap, right here, right now, will you take the coinflip?
10:51 PM me: I would have to discuss that with Plako as I said neither of us are interested in a warrior build up or facing agressive praets
our odds are better with the coin flip quite honestly
liping.rb: or are we able to talk about the possibility of nap 10t later
10:52 PM me: Why delay? All that does is allow you to build up and our window is closed.
liping.rb: okay, then I would like to try and sell you on the idea of the coinflip
me: Can you afford to fight us with another neighbor that as you said you were unhappy to have next to you
10:53 PM liping.rb: well, this way I might be comfortably dead in 3 turns and I no longer have to think about it
you guys get to divide up the land and get in a strong position
I get to watch from the sidelines
you no longer have to worry about aggressive praets
everyone else gets their faster turns
me: that is if you lose. If you win we are on the sidlines
10:54 PM liping.rb: ah, but that's not guaranteed
me: what would be guarenteed is we both have to build up warriors and our other neighbors take our land
10:55 PM You are not interested in a NAP?
Quote:
November 2nd, 2009, 07:29
Posts: 879
Threads: 3
Joined: Jul 2008
Wow had to split up the chat here is part two.
Quote:10:57 PM liping.rb: I am not interested in an immediate NAP on turn 6, I think I lack the necessary info to commit to it, and I don't want to break my word
me: You think you will have to attack us?
10:58 PM An early war or settler rush between us will simply put us both out of this game
while we focus on a narrow strip of land others grab our land the other direction
liping.rb: well, I do not necessarily want the strip of land
10:59 PM me: A long term agreement ensures we focus resources away from each other and have a secure boarder
11:00 PM liping.rb: but I don't like to commit to such a long term agreement without knowing firsthand
and I am getting the feeling I must either sign it now, or it won't be an option at all
11:01 PM me: We would prefer it now. Delaying it would weaken our position and long term survival
liping.rb: times like this I wish I had a teammate who liked diplomacy, lol
11:02 PM me: I am simply proposing we work together and focus our activities away from each other and not settle the land between us till more is known about it and it has been discussed between us
11:03 PM long term nap is to ensure that we both have time where we can grow and not worry about a rush. I am sure you wouldnt want to se axes before you have preats etc/
liping.rb: they would just do this and come back and tell me what to do while I sat in my planning room
me: damn connection
11:04 PM Your reluctance to make the agreement or delay its decision and willingness to take a coinflip is disconcerning
11:05 PM liping.rb: well, I do think the coinflip would be hillarious
11:06 PM me: I suppose but I would prefer to ensure that both our civs are in a better position to win this game. Which I believe the NAP and future settling agreement does.
11:07 PM liping.rb: I think 100T is a very long time, might as well just be talking about alliance instead then, if that's the case
me: If you want the coinflip why not attack the warrior on the hill instead of ensuring you have the better percentage. It will be closer to 50/50 if you attack
Well actually that is what I am working towards and 100 turns in negotiable
liping.rb: because, it would make me look crazy
11:08 PM not only then would I have bad toss odds, I have bad pot odds too
me: you play poker dont you
liping.rb: I play poker, mahjong and various games like that, yeah
me: I prefer not to gamble at this point
dosent mean I wont
liping.rb: I love a good gamble
11:09 PM me: you are nuts
LOL
liping.rb: and I can imagine all the lurkers laughing their heads off
me: do you have a counter proposal to the length? Other than 10 turns of course
11:10 PM liping.rb: hmm
first settlers would normally come out around... t40, let's say... those would therefore go west and east
11:11 PM adding infrastructure and so on...
next one maybe err... t56 or thereabouts
11:12 PM assuming that can go somewhere else, area shouldn't come up until then...
(you can ignore me blabbering )
me: with your blabbering as you call it 100 still seem reasonable
11:13 PM we will come to a settling agreement to the center area before then
liping.rb: how about say, 60t
(but I would still prefer the flip)
11:14 PM me: why not just rush your other neighbor?
that would be more fun for the lurkers
liping.rb: because this will be fully decisive
11:15 PM and there is the possible option right now
me: so you are not interested in a NAP and possible alliance?
11:16 PM liping.rb: well, I propose 60t, but it'd not be my preferred option... counterproposal?
me: 75?
11:17 PM liping.rb: 75 means ending t81 right?
me: what turn is it?
liping.rb: t6, LOL
me: yeah t 81
11:19 PM If we are agreed on 75 turn nap with no settling between us without further discussion I will take it to Plako to sign off on. He is in europe so should see it in a few hours.
liping.rb: I am thinking
me: ok
11:20 PM not pushing but it is getting late
liping.rb: a big part of me really wants to flip, lol
11:21 PM me: I would if I knew I would win it
11:22 PM liping.rb: ... if I say no, will it lead to the flip? lol
me: If you promise the NAP if you win the flip I can probably get him to agree to the flip
11:23 PM we would be out a scouting warrior
you lose you get to lurk
liping.rb: I would be willing to give 10t if I win the flip
11:24 PM I am also willing to give my demographic espionage, if I lose the flip
me: nah prefer the NAP it would take you 10 turns to get there
liping.rb: 15t, then
me: Lets just agree to the NAP it is the best long term interest
11:25 PM really hate basing winning or losing on dumb luck
11:27 PM you thinking?
liping.rb: yeah
11:28 PM I am also wondering what I will have to do with the other guy if I take the NAP
me: do what you want good place for your praets
11:29 PM liping.rb: what's the odds of that right, move 4 squares west and get two contact from opposite sides by turn 6, lol
me: may even be able to trade you some hwactha for praets
yeah really close on this game
liping.rb: I am just somewhat worried from this position that if I end up with a similar agreement on the other side
then where do I go
11:30 PM me: Well that is the thing dont make two agreements like that. Keep thiers shorter term. I am looking for a long term partnership here.
liping.rb: but they may have the same idea as you, lol
11:31 PM me: Ah that is the rub and the reason for the reluctance
liping.rb: wonder if I can get you both to flip me, lol
11:32 PM me: Are they close enough to take you out or can you get your warrior back in time?
liping.rb: I am fine there
me: then if they want to flip let them
11:33 PM liping.rb: the flip is only really good for this turn
after that, I don't necessarily get KOed by losing, so it isn't much of a flip, heh
11:34 PM me: if they move on you cap and your warrior loses dont you die?
liping.rb: there can be soldier increase by that time
11:35 PM me: ah they are further away
liping.rb: there can't for your flip
me: have you told them about us?
liping.rb: no
well, I was about to
11:36 PM me: Well obviously I am biased but I think this is a good agreement for both our civs.
11:38 PM liping.rb: well, I would (slightly reluctantly) take the 60t if that's your preference...
me: can we move that to 75?
11:39 PM liping.rb: sorry, I don't feel comfortable with that kind of length due to the other side at this point, but can you think of something else you might like?
me: such as?
60 is the longest you are willing to go?
11:40 PM liping.rb: I dunno, demographic info or something like that
11:41 PM me: that includes the no settling without a discussion between us? Taking into account we have a natural claim to the territory
11:42 PM liping.rb: going both ways, right?
me: yes
liping.rb: then I have no objection to that, which I can forsee
11:43 PM me: damn connection
liping.rb: then I have no objection to that, which I can forsee
11:44 PM me: Ok I will take this to Plako. If you wish move your warrior to the hill you may still get your coinflip
liping.rb: in that case, I need to first discuss with you how to do the coinflip
me: ?
liping.rb: well first, my border will pop next turn
11:45 PM so you will need to move NE
if you try and declare war directly with my warrior there, I think it bounces and counts as your turn
and that would be unfortunate
11:46 PM me: good to know and I hope it dosent come to that
liping.rb: and your path into city would be NE, SE, SE
11:47 PM (no tricks)
me: ok let me post my message to him and get to bed. It definatly has been an interesting chat.
liping.rb: do we need to discuss terms of the coinflip also?
me: Care to enlighten me on the other neighbor now?
liping.rb: I mean, obviously besides, 'you win, I die'
11:48 PM me: I thought it was pretty straight forward. we move torwards your cap you attack? That is assuming Plako vetos the agreement
11:49 PM liping.rb: well there can be additional offers attached
me: Are you trying to give us incentives to do this?
liping.rb: yes
me: Ok I will listen
11:50 PM liping.rb: well, or something that makes me look less silly if I lose
such as, I would be willing to give the demo info if you declare after moving, instead of making me declare
11:51 PM or give some turns NAP if you declare after moving, that sort of thing
(the first one, if I lose, the second one, if I win)
me: How many turns nap?
60 
11:52 PM liping.rb: enough to guarantee you a warrior
10, or thereabout
11:53 PM me: ok let me give this to Plako and he will send you a message with our decision. If you want move your warrior to the hill for either eventuality
11:54 PM liping.rb: ok, tell him to ask if he has any flip negotiations
me: you do like to gamble.
good night
liping.rb: and gee, this is going to flood both our threads with a wall of text
11:55 PM good night
November 2nd, 2009, 07:55
Posts: 879
Threads: 3
Joined: Jul 2008
Unfortunatly I posted the above in my other thread so Lping may be changing her mind. I am ok with rolling the bones if that is what you want.
November 2nd, 2009, 08:25
Posts: 879
Threads: 3
Joined: Jul 2008
Here are my thoughts now that I have had time to sleep on it.
1) She dosent seem interested in a NAP or early alliance.
2) Waiting only helps her unless we get copper or horse first and can rush
3) She gets iron we are dead or at least spending all our time defending and not growing
I think out of her two neighbors we are the one she would like the option to war with. As she said she was very unhappy with her other neighbor.
I am starting to lean towards rolling the dice and trying to win this quick.
November 2nd, 2009, 09:18
Posts: 879
Threads: 3
Joined: Jul 2008
Damn wrong thread post. She is painting us in a corner. May be our best option to just go for it.
Quote:me: I am at work and cannot see the game did you move the warrior to the hill?
liping.rb: yes
8:55 AM me: Ok just waiting to hear from Plako. Deal is still on the table right?
liping.rb: which one?
me: possible nap/settling agreement
8:56 AM liping.rb: subject to full formal wording, if it has to be, I guess
8:58 AM just unfortunately, I know you think I'm unreliable and you know I know you think I'm reliable, so yeah
8:59 AM unreliable*
9:00 AM honestly not expecting it to go through, haha
9:04 AM actually I'd probably rather it didn't now, it'd be easier to play that way without feeling weird about the accidental spoil, not that there might be much to play the other way, lol
15 minutes
9:20 AM me: It was just a comment on your desire to keep it short. Seemed you had plans
9:21 AM liping.rb: honestly I felt quite put off by the 'this is our land, you sign this and go away' feeling I was getting
9:22 AM me: It was a starting position, you have to start somewhere
liping.rb: but overall, no hard feelings
9:23 AM me: No but I had a framework with which I had to negoitate in. As I said we would be willing to discuss the settling of that area
liping.rb: better pick china or something next time lol
me: China? cho-ku-nu yeah that would have been useful but probably too later
9:24 AM liping.rb: for agri/mining start
and not everyone gets scared as soon as they see you, lol
me: we have mining to start. Oh you mean you pick china
Nobody wants agressive rome as a neighbor
November 2nd, 2009, 09:25
Posts: 879
Threads: 3
Joined: Jul 2008
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