[SPOILERS] Dark Savant leads the noble Inca as half-noble Churchiill

[Dark Savant]

Big news for unsolved mysteries and true crime enthusiasts

Authorities have apparently just made an arrest in the East Area Rapist / Original Night Stalker / Golden State Killer case.

This is such recent news that not all the local news outlets have the news yet, and I'm not sure even the name is accurate.

This is (was?) one of the two big serial killer unsolved mysteries local to me in the San Francisco Bay Area.  The other major one is the Zodiac Killer.

There were a lot of serial killers active in California between about 1970 and 1990; I think for a short time, there were three active just in Santa Cruz, CA, which only had a population of ~35k at the time.

This has been a Dark Savant Blog/postcount++ Post.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

I'm pretty sure Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer. I'm also pretty sure Ted Cruz is a human.

[Dark Savant]

I'm pretty sure Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer. I'm also pretty sure Ted Cruz is a human.

Ted Cruz is probably creepier than the typical serial killer caught after many years.

In most cases, the follow-up interview with friends and neighbors will usually go "wow, he seemed like such a normal person".  We don't say that about Ted Cruz, do we?



We still know little about Joseph James DeAngelo (the arrested suspect), but I've noticed a couple things:

• He may have been inactive for a long time just because he got caught up in kids and career.  People do that for other hobbies, like Civ; why not serial killing?  It also happened to Dennis Rader, aka BTK, who stopped killing once he had kids.  Rader was showing signs of becoming active again once his kids grew up and his career subsided.  DeAngelo just retired.
  
  
• He's several inches shorter than what was claimed.  I've noticed that short criminals have this way of magically becoming tall; white criminals somehow become black; and women criminals become men.  I've read of two of three happening simultaneously, even.
  
  The most well-known case of this involves the Zodiac Killer himself, when he murdered in public in San Francisco.  Someone called in and reported the killer as white, but the police dispatchers told the cops on the street that the killer was black -- which let the Zodiac Killer walk right by police.
  
  
• He was a police officer -- no evidence to indicate that he directly used his connections to commit crimes, but plenty of suggestions that he used what he knew about policing to evade detection.
  

[Dark Savant]

Turn 18 (3280 BC) - Part 1

That lion near our scout is out of sight, so it must now be on the desert/flood plains tile at the edge of the fog.

As something to do while it moves out of the way, I can have the scout get a better look at the northern sea.



Ah, there's where silver is hiding.  I'm guessing that's an island, not the end of a C-shaped peninsula.  Also, more seafood!

And a forested grass land hill for my scout to defend against wandering lions.  It turns out this is a case where 95 vs. 100 health makes a substantial difference in combat odds; the lion does 16 damage/turn according to my combat calculator, and a 95 HP scout can take only six hits whereas a 100 HP scout can take seven.

Our worker starts our second riverside corn farm.

[Dark Savant]

Turn 18 (3280 BC) - Part 2 (C&D)

5000 soldiers appeared this turn.  Lowest rival soldier count rose from 4000 to 5000; highest went from 10000 to 11000.

3000 of the soldiers must be ipecac, wetbandit, and yuris125 all growing their capitals to size 2.

wetbandit and yuris125 also got credit for technologies.  No religions were founded, so that doubtful hypothesis is ruled out completely.

I'm going to write out why I think neither just got a first-column tech, because that's one way to point out errors to myself.

First, their t9 techs.  Neither is Expansive, so they were working a 3f1c tile to produce a worker.  That yields a base research rate of 8 capital + 1 capital tile + 1 from 3f1c tile + 1 free = 11 flasks/turn.  Assuming no C&D trickery, they must have each researched an 89-flask first-column technology (Agriculture, Hunting, or The Wheel), as the one-arrow 119-flask technologies require 10 turns to research.

I don't think either would have researched a food tech and then Mining (or vice versa), like Krill did in PB37, for C&D trickery, since they should have completed both technologies by t16.

Two 89-flask first-column technologies would have been finished by t17; the total cost of both would be 178, which 11 flasks/turn would reach with 9 flasks to spare.

10 flasks overflow and 8 turns of full research is enough to reach a one-arrow 119-flask technology this turn.  That can be Pottery without the Fishing bonus.  Meditation is not possible because Buddhism was not founded.  I suppose Masonry is technically possible for yuris125 to have researched.  

10 flasks overflow and 8 turns of full research is also enough to reach a two-arrow 149-flask technology this turn.  That's Animal Husbandry, which only wetbandit could have done.

So yuris125 likely now has Pottery, which makes sense because he is Protective.  That means he got Agriculture on t9, not Hunting as I thought.

Adjusting to the other hypothesis on turn 9, that means WilliamLP got Agriculture and Charriu got The Wheel then.

That means WilliamLP produced that warrior last turn -- if Charriu did, I would have seen highest rival soldier count rise last turn, not this turn.

The only way someone now has 11000 soldiers is if Charriu produced a warrior this turn (at 2 hammers/turn for 8 turns).

That accounts for all 5000 soldiers that appeared this turn, so wetbandit can't have Animal Husbandry and instead has Pottery.  That strikes me as strange this early if not Protective, but he's more experienced than me.  

I don't see any other reasonable tech progression that fits the known facts.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

I'm pretty sure Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer. I'm also pretty sure Ted Cruz is a human.

Ted Cruz is probably creepier than the typical serial killer caught after many years.

In most cases, the follow-up interview with friends and neighbors will usually go "wow, he seemed like such a normal person".  We don't say that about Ted Cruz, do we?

Skip ahead to 55 seconds for the Ted Cruz punchline. 

[Dark Savant]

Turn 19 (3240 BC)

The lion moves out of sight.  I move the scout to the forested grass hill ...



... then I realize I should have just rested in place for one turn, since there wasn't a way for the lion to reach the hill before I could.

Oh well.  If the lion moves towards the scout (50%), attacks it (90%), and kills it (~20%) ... ~9% odds overall ... you can go ahead and make fun of me. 

There's more riverside corn, but it's a bit too far away for a second city.

C&D: 1000 soldiers and no new technologies appeared this turn, which covers JR4 growing his capital to 2 pop.

[Dark Savant]

Skip ahead to 55 seconds for the Ted Cruz punchline. 

Ted Cruz is the son of two nerd parents; I wouldn't expect him to be normal!

[Dark Savant]

Turn 20 (3200 BC)

The lion approaches our scout.  I'd have to backtrack the scout to guarantee its survival, so I fortify in place and accept the ~18% chance our scout will be attacked and killed.  The odds are about the same that the scout will take no more than one hit (I'd be able to promote it and press on without resting).

Bronze Working is due next turn.  I'll revolt to Slavery immediately, make a quick decision on where to plant a second city (since that influences which tech I choose next, even though the settler doesn't emerge until turn 31), and update the sim.

Our first warrior emerged this turn; I fortified it for now, and may move it depending on where the most likely second city site is.

C&D: Everyone gained 13 points from controlling the 9 tiles in their capital's first ring for 20 turns.

Charriu also gained 4 points for his capital growing from 2 to 3 pop.  That fits with C&D suggesting WilliamLP cut food to boost hammers.

superdeath's capital is not growing and is still size 1.  I'm not sure what he's up to; lowest rival crop production is 8 and has been for several turns, so he can't be frantically replacing a lost scout or anything like that.  He's probably producing a worker or settler at size 1. 

No new technologies appeared.

8000 soldiers appeared this turn; that must be four warriors.

Highest rival soldier score increased from 11000 to 13000; that must be JR4 building a warrior.

Lowest rival soldier score increased from 5000 to 7000; that must be ipecac building a warrior.

Two other rivals who aren't superdeath (worker or settler) or Charriu (maximum growth) produced warriors.  It's probably just wetbandit and yuris125; WilliamLP went back to food for a couple turns as maximum production was only 2 hammers/turn the past couple turns (though someone is producing 5 hammers/turn again), so he can't have produced a second warrior this turn.

[Dark Savant]

Turn 21 (3160 BC)

Our scout defeats the lion on defense, taking only one hit.  I forgot that healing happens before movement, and that you can't promote right away, so the scout will take another turn to rest.

Bronze Working comes in.  We have two copper visible:



One is right at King's Landing, and the other is too far away to be a factor now, so we don't need to worry about copper being in range.

Notice how there's no good spot that shares one of the King's Landing's corn tiles?  Ah well.  The obvious plant site is between the wheat and sheep at the river mouth to the south.  That requires Hunting, so I start researching that.

I also revolt to Slavery immediately, and start moving our lone quechua south so it can fortify on the plant site.

I'll post the new sim sometime this evening.

C&D: 10,000 soldiers appeared.

ipecac got a technology which must be Bronze Working, and WilliamLP grew from size 2 to size 3.  superdeath is still at size 1.

That leaves 2000 soldiers, which I think is WilliamLP producing a warrior (he's evidently microing food/hammers for this); best rival hammer production changed again this turn and he's already played this turn.