[no players] Lurkers' paradise for PBEM3

[Singaboy]

I was thinking the same about Kaiser not needing a replacement. I think he won't survive the next 20 turns. I might be wrong.

[oledavy]

Yikes, things are not looking really good for Kaiser. The one piece of cautionary advice I would give Ichabod at this point is that he needs to be ready to kill Kaiser if he takes Shido - as Kaiser will have practically no chance to win the game and will have nothing better to do than build units and try to drag them down. 

This is just a little heartbreaking to watch because Kaiser is drawing lessons from PBEM2, but has missed how the circumstances are subtly different. The biggest question for me going into this game beyond 'what continent will America settle on?' was 'where will Japan put their second city?' Unlike some of the other civs, he doesn't have an obvious location - a fair trade for having Kumasi next door. I'm just surprised he went for Shido when he could have gone for that jungled location to the northwest, but I understand what he was thinking. He undoubtedly saw Archduke get boxed in in PBEM2, and thought to himself "I can't let that happen to me here, my first city needs to grab contested land in the direction of an opponent."

So, not wanting to lose contested territory, and seeing the relative lack of fresh water around his start, he went really far west. The problems with this plant are fivefold: 

1. The city is just not that good. There are no 4 yield tiles in the first ring. It's slow starting, and doesn't grab anything particularly amazing. 
2. The city is indefensible. On flatland, not behind a river, etc. Compare Shido to Schuyler in PBEM2. 
3. He lost a significant amount of military fighting barbs.
4. He did not replace that military because he wanted to build a trader/Holy Sites.
5. Ichabod has God of the Forge and no other neighbor. 

I could see grabbing a sub-par location like Shido, just to get a freshwater border city with a rival. It's not bad in theory. It just needs 2-3 military units in the area instead of the 1 he has. Instead, Kaiser tried to have his cake and eat it, losing military, stretching for Shido, and building infrastructure. Realistically, he couldn't do all three of these and should have settled for two.

What's sad is that all the puzzle pieces are there. He knows he is Ichabod's only neighbor, and that he took God of the Forge. Even without the pantheon, that basically guarantees Ichabod will attack him sooner rather than later. The pantheon should have raised a giant red flag that he would need to be very careful. He has taken note of Ichabod's pantheon, his own military weakness, but failed to change his course of action based on all the new information. 

Now, I fear Kaiser will be first eliminated in a rather brutal fashion. If that does happen though, I hope he plays again. His reporting is effluent and enjoyable, and his general play solid. This just seems to showcase the danger of applying a lesson too broadly and getting into the mindset of "I need X or I lose."

[Singaboy]

In general I am surprised how many of them take barbarians so casually, especially after seeing me struggle in PBEM2. You might get away with it if the land is finite. They play on a huge piece of land, much of it in the fog. Barbarians will spawn.
On top of that, barbarians provide a good target practice to be prepared for some human onslaught.

However, it's easy to comment as a lurker, being in the middle of the map seems to be really tough.

[Azoth]

The biggest question for me going into this game beyond 'what continent will America settle on?' was 'where will Japan put their second city?' Unlike some of the other civs, he doesn't have an obvious location - a fair trade for having Kumasi next door. I'm just surprised he went for Shido when he could have gone for that jungled location to the northwest, but I understand what he was thinking. He undoubtedly saw Archduke get boxed in in PBEM2, and thought to himself "I can't let that happen to me here, my first city needs to grab contested land in the direction of an opponent."

[...]

I could see grabbing a sub-par location like Shido, just to get a freshwater border city with a rival. It's not bad in theory.

No, I don't think you can let Kaiser off that easily. True, Japan doesn't have a nearby Natural Wonder like England and Arabia, or a crazy fertile double Gems/Horses valley like America - but it has plenty of solid city spots all the same. Like C3, up the river, with two Floodplains, Silver, and as Kaiser just found out, Iron in its first ring. Or C8, down the river, with Cows and three grassland hills in its first ring, and a 1/3 plains forest hill in its second ring. Both these sites have better land than Shido. And being just 4 tiles from the capital, they are faster to settle, easy to defend (especially the trade route), and can take advantage of Japan's district adjacency bonus. With that bonus, Japan *should* be packing its cities close together, just like Germany and its Hansas. So, not to belabor the point, but grabbing a subpar location 9 tiles away from your capital, with a city-state in between, as your *second* city IS bad even in theory.

[Singaboy]

Well, Kaiser will get burned badly for this and I guess this will serve as a big warning for anyone to trying this in future.

[Singaboy]

That is quite some intel the scout gained, he can threaten shido with 3 warriors and a slinger but we just need to keep it unoccupied so it can heal between turns.

It seems, Kaiser still totally underestimates the danger he faces. His replacement player might save him maybe. Still sticking to that monument is weird though.

[RefSteel]

Ichabod somehow just jumped to 4 tourists, 400 lifetime culture in 41 turns. I don't really understand how that's possible, except through an inspiration to Defensive Tactics. Which means someone declared war on him. It's not Rowain though, if I read the screen correctly. I doubt its suboptimal, so probably Kaiser. Not sure what to think.

This is actually the Machinery inspiration, right? Build (or rather own) 3 Archers?

[Woden]

This is actually the Machinery inspiration, right?  Build (or rather own) 3 Archers?

Machinery is on the tech side, so I don't think it would contribute to tourist. He probably built his 8th land unit and got the inspiration for Mercenaries, which would be worth over 100 culture.

[Singaboy]

I find it a little hard to follow the game as some reporting is pretty intermittent.

As for Eurekas, you also get the inspiration for Defensive Tactics, if a CS declares war on you. Hence, if Ichabod declares war on Kaiser and Kaiser is suzerain of a CS, that would be the one. But 8 units sound more likely.

I wonder whether Kaiser will pull that warrior back into the city to boost its defenses.

[RefSteel]

Aha - that makes sense; thanks for pointing out what I missed! Lacking the game (or even a computer capable of running it) myself means I'm in the dark almost as often as I'm just plain wrong!