well, game's over officially, though i don't think the outcome has been in doubt for some time. i probably won't do as full a retrospective as in the last game as this one was so short, but i think my big mistakes here are fairly obvious - in order of significance:
1. getting baited by CMF into a religious race. i see now that chev's project build, which i attributed to a zealous commitment to a difficult religious race that even at the time i couldn't understand given his geopolitical credentials, was in fact done specifically to mess with me following a dead-on read of my psychology. that it worked exactly according to plan is awfully telling
shrine builds for FtW were also a mistake but are i think essentially the same mistake as this one, so i am grouping them together here. you will notice that this means every build i made besides galleys and the two holy sites was a "mistake" following this criterion, which i believe was indeed true! neither TAD nor I should have diverted from galleys for even a second until our perimeter was locked securely behind occupied chokepoints, and even then i am not too confident we could have stopped the longship snowball...
edit: from looking at thrawn's thread around this point, it looks like they believed the race for FtW was genuine and that i had already lost it once chev finished their project (as indeed i think i would have if chev were really racing us). thrawn, when you see this, i'm especially curious as to how you would have interpreted and responded to this specifically
2. leaving my ships out of position between shodai and my mainland instead of pre-emptively occupying chokes before norway got to us, which in retrospect was the only way we could have held on. as i committed them my ships accomplished nothing and were surrounded and obliterated
3. sluggish CS attacks. in part this happened because we were unable to scout the northern CS until it was too late due to very inconveniently placed water barbs. but for most of this game i was operating under the mistaken assumption that each team would have only one pair of dedicated home CS, with the others between players to serve as bones of strategic contention, which i used to rationalize building fewer galleys than needed. but i never really made much of an effort to dispute this assumption until it was too late. although, would capturing CSs earlier have made holding them against norway more viable? i'm not really sure - Asanoyama and Shodai would have each required 4-6 precisely placed galleys to defend long-term, even while completely ceding control of the seas outside my defensive perimeter, and i don't think i could realistically have assembled those numbers of ships in time...
4. placement of MoM and Terunofuji with multiple tiles of coastal access
5. takakeisho settle, but our game was already so lost at that point that it barely mattered
yeesh, very poorly played from me in all honesty. i am not quite sure what steps i should take from here if i am serious about getting on the level of thrawn, TAD, CMF, Woden, and the Civ4 crowd, as it seems like the main cause of my performance was psychological rather than mechanical, and how does one really fix that? but maybe that isn't something i
should be serious about given the strain on my already limited free time? idk, i'll do some thinking and get back to you all the next time one of these games comes around...