[SPOILERS] Lurker thread; the omniscient view

[Gaspar]

Was just going to post in scooter's thread to tell him what happened in vague terms but decided that it would basically be doing to Commodore what scooter himself is upset about.

This is a mountain out of a molehill - like I said in Serdoa's thread and upthread here every single player who has maintained a thread has said something in the heat of frustration that they'd probably like to take back. There's really no need for any of us to make a huge deal out of it.

Regardless, I don't really think it is appropriate for any of us to be talking to Serdoa (or any other player for that matter) about what is said in other people's threads.

[Ceiliazul]

I said nothing to noone except posts in this thread. I would also like to know who alerted Serdoa.

[novice]

Wasn't me either. Now Commodore is complaining too. Great.

[Ichabod]

I'm glad we are starting WW 12 soon. Things get bad when we start to spill its gameplay to other games.

[Krill]

What has supposedly happened?

[novice]

Someone told Serdoa that he was being accused of cheating by some other players and in the lurker thread. Both Commodore and Scooter are therefore complaining that information has leaked from their spoiler threads and to Serdoa.

[Krill]

Great.

[SevenSpirits]

Scratch one more Melville. Apparently, chariot vs. spear in Serdoan hands will do a silly amount of damage.

Thanks novice and Gaspar. You see, biggest issue for me now is to play like I would normally. Example: This is the situation right now for Commodore



I could attack with my Chariot into Melville. If the Spear is damaged enough, follow it up by my WE attacking his X-Bow and my Axe finishing his Spear. If not, I simply retreat my troops. Why would I do that? Well

- the Chariot won't be of much help on defense and won't be enough to threaten any of his cities, so its loss is not really all that tragic
- Melville will sooner or later take the horses back, if I can raze it, I don't need to care about the Iron for now
- when the 2nd Spear reaches Melville, he might move all 3 units out to get me (secure it with an archer instead, at size 2 thats whippable with one turn of production); if the join up, he could have in 2 turns already 3 X-Bows and 3 Spears - if he uses those from Dosto even 4 of each) - next to Kipling

Especially the last one I really don't want to happen. Now, what is the cost for me if I attack? First 20 hammers for the chariot for a small chance to damage his spear. If I do, I'll have ~60% odds to kill his X-Bow with my WE. If I succeed I can follow it with my Axe and raze/take the city. Even if I lose, I should damage him enough to kill his X-Bow with the Axe - and the spears alone I don't mind at all.

Now, basically in numbers that means I have a 6 in 10 chance to raze his city. If I don't, I'll still have a good chance to get a hammer exchange I feel is still equal and lastly I have a rather big chance that I'll throw away my Chariot (which I don't need) and simply retreat. Normally quite honestly, I would have already attacked. I mean hey, him losing that city would make my life much easier as it would take away one avenue of attack (and one culture producer, which would make getting those tiles there much easier). And apart from that I'll get at least 3 more units into Kipling next turn, so I can gamble with those a little bit.

See, I really feel it makes sense to try the attack. But I'm also sure that if I win the attack with the chariot (or damage enough and lose it) someone will state that I would have reloaded if I had lost. And if I lose it and retreat, someone probably will state that I only did not reload because it would have been too obvious that I did not take the attack, taking my normal playstyle into account. No matter what I do, now I fear that I'll always get accused of some shit. And thats taking away quite a bit of my enjoyment (and apart from that my decision-making).

I am going to investigate a couple of Serdoa's "risky" attacks to see what's really up. First this one. Both players involved implied that there was a small chance the attack should work. This is not so.

The chariot only needs to get a single hit against the spear to make the crossbow defend against the war elephant. Odds of that are 74%. Overall the odds of the city falling are higher than .74 * .58 * .97 (latter being the worst-case odds of axe vs spear) which is 40%. On average the attack results in a hammer exchange massively favorable to Serdoa and it would honestly be strange if he didn't go for it.

Most important though is the fact that he obviously set it up last turn, and Commodore had full vision of it. So far I have heard zero reports of Serdoa setting up a "risky" attack like that and then not taking it the following turn.

I plan to check out a few more such "risky" attack turns but I doubt I will find anything different. I suspect it's his showy reporting style where he reveals his plans only after they are successful that has made people suspicious of him with regard to these things.

[Gaspar]

It has a lot to do with reputation. I don't believe Serdoa is cheating in any way. But I remember Lewwyn being furious at some of Serdoa's rolls in 14. And I have vague recollection of something coming up in 10. So once it starts coming up a bunch, people start attributing everything to it.

But much like Commodore, I think it comes down to playstyle. And the fact that Serdoa's games are usually not well reported.

[SevenSpirits]

Checked out another of those situations that Commodore complained about. This is the second capturing of his coastal city which was followed by the artist bomb.

Once again Serdoa's actions make perfect sense. And again they were obviously planned out from the previous turn. I checked some other turns too and saw no sign of setting up opportunities that he didn't take.

He's at most as likely to be cheating as anyone else. As scooter would say, enough is enough.