[Spoilers] Dtay's first PB: When you play a game of CIV, you win or you die

[dtay]

Meandering thoughts while waiting for azza:

Lets assume he has both warriors I saw earlier up here. Based on everyone's current location my ax should be able to raze the city with something like 90% odds (depends on how hurt he gets fighting warrior 1).

EXCEPT. Upgrades. Jowy is going to be able to hook up his copper, but he won't have time to actually build a copper unit in his city. (sans additional hidden workers). But if he has enough gold in the bank from huts in the like he can upgrade his warriors. That gives him up to (gold depending) 2 unpromoted axes. My axes each have 70%~ odds on an unpromo ax in the city. So the fights still in my favor, but with a much larger chance the dice roll against me and I lose.

This can be less speculative once turn rolls and I can move my scout to the hill and see what's actually in that city. If he only has the 1 warrior I'm golden. If he has the 2 warriors and another worker... its probably not worth it. 2 warriors and the 2 workers though... its a close call.

[dtay]

He can also certainly slave out an ax from wherever his capital is, but even if its just beyond the fog that gives me a substantial window. I'm thinking abotu whether slaving out a 3rd ax from EC is worth it//what affect that would have on the proceedings. Or if I can get horses hooked up fast enough to get some chariots into the mix.

[dtay]

THEIR BOYS SHALL LIE MANGLED BY THE BRONZE SPEARS
IN THEIR DEATHS ALL THINGS APPEAR FAIR

[Ceiliazul]

I think you get +1 to rng rolls for quoting ancient-age Nimoy. Quote an industrial/modern age Nimoy* for bigger bennies.

*other than 'satellites'. that's only cool when Nimoy does it.

[dtay]

Favorite industrial one is easily:

"You mean to make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I have no time for such nonsense."

[Ceiliazul]

100% agreed. my runners up:

"I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use."
- Galileo Galilei

"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philisophy."
- John Adams

[dtay]

Ok, did more simming.

The odds are in my favor. The most he can do is upgrade his two warriors to axes. The earliest he can build another ax is too late.

The first ax fight will be ~65% odds for me (I think he'll have 1 turn of fortify after upgrading, right? If upgrades don't break fortify then this is all wrong, anyone know the answer to that?). If i win that, I have very high odds of beating the 2nd ax. I'll be able to cover my first ax with my second, promote the first ax the next turn giving it a fair bit of health + CR1. Ax 2 (named Kimbley incidentally) will then attack at 50% or 65% depending on if TBS could upgrade both axes on the same turn. Even if I then lose that, I can attack his almost-certainly wounded ax with my wounded-but-promoted-for-half-healing ax who now also has CR1.

So is this a sure thing? No. I haven't done a formal multiplying of all the probabilities there, but I'm betting it all comes out to about 50-60% odds I raze the city. Given I lose at MOST 2 axes for a good shot at a city raize (and killing off TBS's gold reserves), this sounds good to me.

He'll also then be probably left without copper, so I can play zone defense for a while and stop him from expanding in this direction until he gets something to kill my axes (chariots I guess, but if I build 1-2 spears it'll take even more).

[Krill]

If he upgrades a unit it resets defense to 0%.

[dtay]

hammerhammerhammerhammerhammer
hammerhammerhammerhammerhammer
hammerhammerhammerhammerhammer
hammerhammerhammerhammerhammer

[dtay]

Ok, so here's a somewhat late turn report.

Had the First Battle of Turtle yesterday, wrath emerged victorious, though barely alive. Kimbley moved up to cover, and so TBS/Jowy have 1 ax remaining.

This is Wrath, AKA King Bradley




I moved my scout to cover their copper, this both disrupts their workers movements and stops them from working the copper itself. Obviously their ax can come and kill me easily, but if it does it's going to lose its fortify and has a ~30% chance of taking some damage as well. Father is being sacrificed here, but I prefer every percent I can get in this next fight to being able to see Jowy's capital. I already basically can guess vaguely where it is (there's a bloody road trailing off into the fog), and knowledge of his capital won't really affect anything I do at the moment. I can't affect it anyway. Even if his civ is the minimum possible distance (borders must be 2 tiles within the fog, 2nd city hasn't expanded borders, is the closer one, whipped out a ax immediately, my window is still enough that this conflict will be over by the time he reinforces.

So given I won that combat the odds are now in my favor, just have to win one combat against this next ax with either of my remaining axes.