RBP4 [SPOILERS] - Shaka of Zulu (sunrise089, regoarrarr, and friends)

[Rowain]

I would send the Warrior SE and use the scout to defog those tiles SW of your Cap as I guess your first Settler will move to SW? Of course (as mentioned by rego) the double corn+gold region has the right distance for a 2nd city

[regoarrarr]

To quote myself from earlier when I was examining contenders for a GLH race

NOT LIKELY:
* Locke / Cervantes - Has Fishing and Mining and is currently teching something. If it comes in on T22 (possibly Sailing but could be Anim Husb), then we'll keep them - if it comes in on T25 (Bronze Working), then I think they're out.
* WarlordDr - Ditto.
* Gaspar / Nakor - Teched the Wheel which is odd but he already has Fishing. We'll have to see when their next tech comes in.

So Locke is out I think (definitely BW for him).

And WarlordDr had to research Mining instead of Hunting, so he's 2t behind - I'm guessing we'll see him with BW in 2t.

But Nakor/Gaspar - what I had pegged for Animal Husbandry this morning could just as easily be sailing! I don't know that we have any way to know (they both count 2K soldier points), so at this point we have to assume it's Sailing, at least for GLH planning purposes.

[regoarrarr]

Okay T26 has rolled, and in my friendly updating for the lurkers what WarlordDr is doing, he researched Bronze Working this turn and has leapt to the top of the soldier count, with 21,000.

Lord Parkin and Locke just joined us at Pop 3, which means that it is unlikely that they will have a super early settler 2nd city.

We got our points for BFC land as well as researched Fishing, so while we're still in last place, we're no longer 30% below the next to last civ, like we were last turn

[regoarrarr]

And here are the T26 demos



Note that the max land area is up over 21K. The creative civs (and probably our Buddhist civ) have hit their 3rd ring. One interesting thing there is that it means that our starts are not EXACTLY identical. I counted up our 3rd ring if we had settled in place and I think it was only 28 land tiles. I double checked and can confirm that nobody has settled a 2nd city

Some exploration overviews



Warrior SE next turn



Scout I think W-SW but I could be talked into W-W. In fact, sunrise TRIED to talk me into it, but I rejected him

(10:39:38 AM) sunrise089: 2W I think
(10:40:40 AM) me: so the only tiles W-W sees that W-SW doesn't (both hills right?)
(10:40:45 AM) me: would be 2NW from the top hill
(10:40:51 AM) me: definitely looks like 3W is coast, right?
(10:41:51 AM) sunrise089: I was thiking the coastal hill reveals two more water tiles
(10:42:05 AM) me: well when we move 1W
(10:42:15 AM) me: we'll see 2 more water tiles
(10:42:16 AM) sunrise089: you're right
(10:42:28 AM) sunrise089: ok, I'm fine with southern hill if you prefer it

[regoarrarr]

So I had a REAL problem last night. I was trying to recreate our game in a test sandbox game, and then I crashed the PB server

Oh okay that was a DIFFERENT problem. The problem I was having is that our worker turns kept coming up delayed. I couldn't get it all to tie out. I even blamed sunrise

(10:13:41 AM) me: so did you ever cancel workers in pb4?
(10:13:47 AM) sunrise089: cancel workers?
(10:13:51 AM) me: liek the worker was camping
(10:13:57 AM) me: and you cancel it
(10:14:08 AM) me: i know you said you would do that in multiplayer sometimes
(10:15:03 AM) me: the reason i ask about the workers is that i can't figure out what happened with us
(10:15:07 AM) sunrise089: so I'm supposed to cancel in the future, or was supposed to in the past?
(10:15:15 AM) me: i was asking if you had
(10:15:22 AM) me: because we started our mine on t25
(10:15:24 AM) sunrise089: I think so?
(10:15:31 AM) sunrise089: how long ago?
(10:15:44 AM) me: but we SHOULD have had a worker out on t11, move to deer on 12, camp 13-16, move to deer on 17, camp 18-21, move to mine on 22, start mine on 23
(10:15:49 AM) me: we're missing 2 turns
(10:15:55 AM) me: so i was wondering if maybe you had canceled a worker
(10:16:03 AM) me: and then i played the next turna nd didn't notice and didn't re-camp it
(10:16:22 AM) sunrise089: worker was in 3440BC, does that match to t11?
(10:16:37 AM) me: no that matches to T14
(10:16:39 AM) me: oh right
(10:16:43 AM) me: we put a few turns into a warrior didn't we
(10:16:48 AM) sunrise089: I'm thnking that's why
(10:16:49 AM) sunrise089: yeah

But then we figured it out - by remembering that we put a few turns into a warrior before we started our worker, just to avoid getting Mortius'd. So I'll have to regenerate the save based on that.

What I was trying to do was figure out our best way forward.

Now that we have Fishing, we have the option of working 1/0/2 coast. Which are pretty junky tiles, but we are SO commerce poor on this map, it seems like it could possibly make sense. But I wanted to run the numbers to check.

We are currently researching Sailing. It's 15t working a 2/1/0 grass forest, 14t if we work a grassland river (2/0/1) and 13t if we work the 1/0/2 coast.

[Mardoc]

Okay T26 has rolled, and in my friendly updating for the lurkers what WarlordDr is doing, he researched Bronze Working this turn and has leapt to the top of the soldier count, with 21,000.

Much obliged

[regoarrarr]

Okay I got a sim up and running, and advanced it all the way to T26 (where we are currently at).

I'm going to run a few sims on optimal path.

/This post brought to you by the "how the heck are we in 3rd place in post count" department

[Krill]

Please post the sim

[regoarrarr]

Working the coast gives 11+1 base commerce or 14 beakers
Working the hill gives 10+1 base commerce or 13 beakers
Working a forest gives 9+1 base commerce or 12 beakers

Working the hill and coast gives 12+1 base commerce or 15 beakers

The magic line to get 3 beakers from the 20% bonus is at 14+1 commerce, which gives 18 beakers.

Currently it is T26, and we are at size 3, 12/26 food and 40/60 into our double speed Ikhanda. Working the 2 deers gives us 6fpt, 5hpt.

Worker-wise, our position is pretty set. With no Wheel, Pottery or Bronze Working, we can only mine our 2 hills. Well I guess we could farm our one bare grassland but I wouldn't be surprised if that has a resource on it. Still something to consider. So plan would be continue river plains hill mine, done on T28, then move to the other hill and mine it (done T33).

====
Option A: Max growth. This is working the 2/0/1 grassland river, then the grass forests (2/1) till size 5
T27: 18/26, 50/60
T28: 24/26, 0/X (workboat?)
T29: 4/28, 5/X, now work the grass forest, giving us 6hpt
T30: 10/28, 11/X
T31: 16/28, 17/X
T32: 22/28, 22/X
T33: 0/30, 27/X, growth to size 5.

Working the 2 deer, the 2 hills, and a coast, that gives 2fpt, 12hpt.
If we work the 2 deer, the river mine and 2 coast, that makes 2fpt, 9hpt, and the 14+1cpt to give us 18bpt.

I guess we need to figure out Sailing time in all this. My spreadsheet says that Option A gives us Sailing (172b) on T38.

Let's look at it another way. We have 1 beaker overflow, and every turn gives me 12 beakers towards Sailing. Every turn working one of the river tiles adds 1 beaker, and every turn working coast adds 2, and if we work 3 coasts (or 2 coasts and a river tile), we add 1.

So by T37 under Option A, there's 11 base turns, plus 7 turns working a river tile (pre-size 5), plus river + 2 coasts + bonus for 4 turns (post-size 5). So that's 11 * 12 = 132 + 7 + 24 = 163 beakers + my overflow beaker = 164, which means that the spreadsheet is right that it will be T38. Always nice to double check results

====
Okay so Option B: Max commerce. This is working 1/0/2 coasts till size 5. I'm going to ignore hammer counts for purposes of this sim.
T27: 17/26
T28: 22/26
T29: 1/28, growth to size 4, now 4fpt
T30: 5/28
T31: 9/28
T32: 13/28
T33: 17/28
T34: 21/28
T35: 25/28
T36: 1/30, growth to size 5.
T37: 4/30

So figuring out commerce as of T36, that's my 1 overflow beaker, plus 10 base turns. 3 turns of 1 coast, and 7 turns of 2 coasts So 1 + 12 * 10 + 3 * 2 + 7 * 4. 1 + 120 + 6 + 28 = 155. Next turn would be 19 beakers, so Sailing on T37.

We gain one turn (11 beakers), but we lose

Comparing the two options as of T38:
A: 10/30, 74 hammers of "stuff", 9 beakers post-Sailing
B: 7/30, 50 hammers, 21 beakers post-Sailing

So is 12 beakers (and 1 turn start on our LH) worth 3 food and 24 hammers? I don't think so. More analysis (of course) coming up....

Also T26 sandbox save attached

[darrelljs]

Did you simulate the turn where you moved your Settler, or just started it at turn 2?

Darrell