After Pindicator took off, I tried to redistribute our knights to maximize our chances of taking Auir and Mar Sara next turn. Auir currently has an archer and a CG2 longbow, and Mar Sara has 2 axes. But, both cities were whipped, so I am expecting new CG2 longbows in both. Actually Mar Sara doesn't have a barracks as far as I can tell, so it will just be a CG1 there, though we do have to worry about him using his GG to either free upgrade one of the axes or make an uber-longbow.
So at Auir, I think that 6 knights should be able to do the trick. 2 to die to the longbows, and then 3 to kill the 2 LBs + 1 archer, and 1 more to sacrifice to the RNG.
I put 8 knights in range, though 2 of them are wounded. They're spread out over 3 tiles but I think that's fine. I left 2 knights in Sprockets (1 wounded). Hopefully he doesn't have anything out in the fog. I am sitting on the roads out of Auir and he has no workers in range, so hopefully we should be okay.
I would estimate 7-8 knights to be sure of taking Mar Sara. 2 to kill the longbow, 3 to kill the 2 axes, and 2-3 to be sure of dealing with the GG (whether he makes an uber longbow or turns the axe into a mace + the 20xp. Good news on that one is that we don't HAVE to take it this turn, since Commodore's army is a) out of position on the northEAST side of Monlyth and b) fairly small (actually with only 7 knights and 2 impis vs. 4 longbows + 4 ancient units behind walls, it's not going to fall this turn)
Unfortunately we only have 6 that can move to hit it next turn. So it may be another turn. We'll see what we're looking at after Yuri plays T197. I've also positioned a few knights in Matt Foley that can move to the staging tile next turn in case we need reinforcements.
I do think that we can consider keeping it, maybe depending on what infra it comes with? The one thing is that we definitely need some more ports on the western ocean, so we can try to nab that 1 tile island as well as the other islands to the west. The other thing is that if we find Ash Arak *2* West (yellow circle - on the coast), then I think that its 100 culture would grab the tile W-SW of the cows, which would allow us to sail a galley to the "islands west" signed coast tile. There may or may not be anything worth settling there but worth taking a shot.
A few housekeeping notes - we're really feeling some WW crunch - we have 4 unhappies in the capital. I'm stacking it with HR happiness, but also fired a few merchants to get the market a turn earlier - that's worth 2 happies from silk and ivory. Plus we'll get gems, dyes and incense over the next few turns, plus whatever we can trade our extras for.
I have not moved all our galleys - we want to start collecting units to head towards Inferno Island and Pindicator's Folly but we need to take out Auir, Mar Sara and Korhal first.
I also haven't moved all of our workers - I'm shuttling 2 over to the new world. I am also sending the GG over there. I had to take the knight out of one of the boats to serve as MP for Church Lady.