Micromanagement Sims/Planning

[SleepingMoogle]

I'm not sure that makes me any more comfortable. But at least we still have a fair shot if we are in a race.

[Sullla]

I think our chances of getting Stonehenge are roughly 50/50. Our ETA of Turn 55 just isn't that fast (that's Turn 37 for you PBEMers on Quick speed). There's two reasons why we have a good shot:

* Techs are REALLY expensive on this map. This has slowed the overall tech pace drastically and limited the number of teams with Mysticism. We've discovered 5 techs in 44 turns, and that's the most of anyone. Slooooooow going. This also means that few teams have Bronze Working/Slavery so far, limiting the opportunity to whip/chop wonders.

* The teams that do have Mysticism tech are mostly teams who won't be inclined to build Stonehenge. CivFr is playing a Creative leader, out. German team is playing Inca, another civ which sees its UB bonus go up in smoke from rushing Stonehenge. They also just double-whipped their capital for a settler, so that's basically a no-go on wonder construction.

So that leaves CivPlayers (Darius of Aztecs), UniversCiv (Mehmed of HRE), and CFC (Mansa of India). CivPlayers have no Bronze Working, and they only just built a second worker. They will get Stonehenge if they choose to build it over a third settler in their capital, which they very well might. It would stunt their civ growth very badly, but they might choose to do so. The one thing mitigating against that is the team's makeup of MP ladder guys, who generally do not emphasize early wonders.

UniversCiv has three cities of size 1, 2, and 3. They are horribly underdeveloped as a civ, do not have Bronze Working, and have discovered fewer beakers than any other team in the game. (They've picked up only Agriculture, AH, and Mining in 44 turns. Wow.) However, they are also an excellent candidate for the "dumb team that goes early wonder in the capital and destroys any chance of winning" play. I think they are a serious candidate to take Stonehenge.

CFC we've already covered above. There's also a decent chance that the tech Apolyton discovered this turn was Mysticism, and not Pottery as we have it marked on the spreadsheet. In that case, Apolyton would be another significant candidate for ignoring a third city and building Stonehenge in the capital. I don't think that's true, since their capital has been sitting at size 4 for ages, but it's possible. (I believe that Apolyton is building their third settler now; I think they went settler -> worker -> settler in their capital, and we'll see another city any turn now.)

So yes, there's a lot of possible competition here. We basically have to count on teams not screwing over their own games by rushing early wonders. With this group of teams, that may be a tall order. But if we see Stonehenge fall to someone else, we can easily shift our plans without losing much of anything. Only if we lose a same-turn tie would I be disappointed.

[novice]

Copied from the temporary forum:

Here is our current plan up to the completion of Stonehenge (T55). Let me know if there are any mistakes or alterations needed.

Stonehenge Plan

Simmed: to T55

Tech: Polytheism (T51) -> Fishing (T54) -> Priesthood or Masonry
(Note: Run 0% tech on T51)

Adventure One: Worker (T53) -> Settler (whip T56 at 30/100) -> Granary (T58)

Mansa's Muse: Stonehenge (with 4/15 warrior in box) -> whip spear T53 -> Stonehenge (T55)

Focal Point: Granary (T51) -> Axeman

Worker A: pasture pigs (T49), move SW and road copper (T50), move N-N (T51), chop (T52-54)

Worker B: pasture pigs (T49), move SW and road copper (T50), move N-NE (T51), chop (T52-54)

Worker C: pasture pigs (T49), move W-NW and chop (T50), move N-NW (T51), chop (T52-54)

Worker D (T53): move NW and road (T53), move NW (T54), road (T55-56)

Settler (T)

Adventure One
Citizen 1: Corn farm (T49-)
Citizen 2: floodplains cottage (T49-)
Citizen 3: floodplains cottage (T49-)
Citizen 4: grassland cottage (T49-)
Citizen 5: grassland cottage (T49-)
Citizen 6: plains cottage (T49-)

Mansa's Muse
Citizen 1: Corn farm (T49-)
Citizen 2: Deer camp (T49-)
Citizen 3: Gold mine (T49-)
Citizen 4 (T51): grassland forest (T51-T52), whipped away (T53),
Citizen 5 (T53): whipped away (T53)

Focal Point
Citizen 1: Pigs pasture (T49-)
Citizen 2 (T53): Copper mine (T53-)

I didn't look at the case of what happens if we have to whip the spear on T51 to deal with the barb warrior, but I've been told that we are still fine.

I didn't look at the case of what happens if we have to whip the spear on T51 to deal with the barb warrior, but I've been told that we are still fine.

It works, but it's ugly. On T54 we need to go into temporary starvation (-1F) to work a bunch of bare plains hills, and it assumes we can work the gold mine the entire time.

If we lose the gold mine, then Stonehenge will be delayed to T55.

[NobleHelium]

Is there a sandbox file after Henge is done?

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

Here is an updated sandbox for use in planning starting next turn (post-AH). I took the terrain work done by kjn, and then replayed exactly what we did over the first 42 turns. Starting tomorrow, we'll be doing quite a bit of work with this savefile.

This is the most recent one that I could find.

[SevenSpirits]

I updated the sandbox.

I am not sure if FP has 1 or 2 culture this turn. I left it conservatively at 1.

Our gold is correct, but the beakers are probably slightly off. I don't have access to the exact amount we have overflowing from fishing.

I did not do any WB edits for exploration since the last sandbox was posted.

Edit: also I just noticed I got a forest growth 1NE of our fish. So, remove that if you use this.

[NobleHelium]

Natural religion spread is definitely checked during the city processing routine, but I'm not sure if it is during the research phase (would be 2 culture) or production phase (1 culture). If someone could log in and check that it would be good to know for future reference.

[SevenSpirits]

Very sloppy sim to get an idea of how long math will take. I continued from our current position by whipping the capital's settler at 30/100 as we've vaguely planned to do, managed workers fairly poorly (several forests were worked due to lacking cottages), and got math eot67. Oracle is therefore due eot68. (I intentionally aimed for that turn to get more efficiency from chops.)

I put the oracle in MM for stacked GPP. It's easily buildable either there or in FP given that we are constrained by tech, so GPP seemed like the most relevant consideration.

In this sim, we could build a shrine t75 if we wanted to, by working priests after finishing the oracle. (I had already worked a few priest-turns when tiles were scarce.)

[Gold Ergo Sum]

managed workers fairly poorly (several forests were worked due to lacking cottages)

Is it possible to get Math T66 if we found a way to work a few more cottages? I assume not.

[SevenSpirits]

Well we'd need to come up with about 40 commerce more than I got, over the 12 turns from next turn (t55) to t66. That is about as much as you get from working one extra riverside cottage every turn, so it seems plausible.

Having just written that... wow, that math/oracle run really went just 14 turns from this one. And I was suggesting that it was a worthwhile idea assuming it would take 20 turns! If anything my top question is if we should aim for 1t later instead, to focus more on expansion.