Intersite Game - Turn Discussion Thread

[mostly_harmless]

They have not even logged in this turn. And its a frigging Sunday. Now its nearing midnight over here, so forget seeing any activity for the next 8 hours at least.
Utterly frustrating!

mh

[Ruff_Hi]

I coded up Sullla's explanation in excel ...

Example:


So, using that approach, I get:
AO: 9.7%
MM: 53.0%
FP: 37.4%

If I change the formula for the capital to round down, I get ...
AO: 6.3%
MM: 55.6%
FP: 38.2%

[NobleHelium]

Not sure what you're doing there but it's very wrong. The capital has no chance of getting the religion because the highest number it can get is 25/8 = 3.125. FP gets at least 11, and MM gets at least 13.

[Sullla]

German team was logged into the game for 45 minutes today. Without ending their turn.

At this point, I think they're just trolling everyone else.

[Dantski]

German team was logged into the game for 45 minutes today. Without ending their turn.

At this point, I think they're just trolling everyone else.

I doubt they're trolling, I guess they always want a consensus and the turn player isn't willing to make decisions without consulting the whoel team first. Could make any diplo down the line excruciatingly slow too.

[Bigger]

German team was logged into the game for 45 minutes today. Without ending their turn.

At this point, I think they're just trolling everyone else.

I doubt they're trolling, I guess they always want a consensus and the turn player isn't willing to make decisions without consulting the whoel team first. Could make any diplo down the line excruciatingly slow too.

sulla does the same thing with important decisions or things we haven't talked about yet. But there have been dozens of turns so far that were just "move warrior, end turn" or such like that, there's no need to take pictures, post "ok just to make sure we're building a road here right?" or whatever. This is really getting absurd, at this pace the game could last 2 years, but considerably less time if the German team weren't involved.

I don't know how to do so diplomatically, but we need to do something. Maybe Scooter could feel out how CFC feels about it and prod them to say something? Or WPC, once we establish contact.

[Ruff_Hi]

Not sure what you're doing there but it's very wrong. The capital has no chance of getting the religion because the highest number it can get is 25/8 = 3.125. FP gets at least 11, and MM gets at least 13.

Bah - forgot to add in the '10' .

I will update my excel file and repost below.

[Ruff_Hi]

I had miscoded the maths as quoted by Sullla. Here is the updated results with some explanation of the example ...

Here is the maths I used in the picture example ...

( 10 + currentPopulation + random(10) ) / (1 + current_religions_in_city )
where random is a number form 0 to 9
if the city is your capital, it is again divided by 8

AO scores a 2.125 (10 + 6 + 1) / 8
MM scores a 15 (10 + 3 + 2)
FP scores a 18 (10 + 1 + 7)

The total scores are 35.125 so for this trial, probabilities are ...

AO = 2.125 / 35.125 = 6.0%
MM = 15 / 35.125 = 42.7%
FP = 18 / 35.125 = 51.2%

The random number I roll to select the holy city is 0.825 and so FP is selected for this trial. If I repeat this process 10,000 times I get this ...

AO: 7.4%
MM: 49.5%
FP: 43.2%

Now, I could have totally missed how the game actually does it, but those results sort of do make some sense to me.

[Ruff_Hi]

Hmm - what if the winner is decided using a different method? What if the method is the city that gets the highest 'score'? In that case, with ties between MM and FP going to MM, I get ...

AO: 0.0%
MM: 72.6%
FP: 27.4%

... which tallies with novice allowing for sampling error.

So basically FP has to roll three better than MM on ten-sided dice to get the religion (I'm guessing city order is the tiebreaker). That's 1+2+3+4+5+6+7 = 28 out of 100 possible combinations, so FP has a 28% chance of getting the religion.

[v8mark]

Hmm - what if the winner is decided using a different method? What if the method is the city that gets the highest 'score'? In that case, with ties between MM and FP going to MM, I get ...

AO: 0.0%
MM: 72.6%
FP: 27.4%

... which tallies with novice allowing for sampling error.

From memory rather than any more definite source, but I'm nearly certain this is correct. (After doing a bit more digging -- post #19 of this thread gives the actual code behind the algorithm.) One of the things I remember when looking at this topic several years ago was that there's essentially no chance of your capital becoming the holy city of a religion if you have any other cities, even if those cities have religion and your capital does not.