Here is a short preliminary report for Turn 54:
We discovered Fishing tech, on now to the equally cheap Priesthood with lots of research overflow. Here's the big news: Stonehenge is still unbuilt by any other teams. We have it due to complete next turn. Let's cross our fingers that we're the ones who cross the finish line first. At the very least, we're a coin flip now (I think? Or if it's the one who has the most production overflow, we probably lose, since we've timed the wonder to have only 1 production overflow. Hopefully won't be an issue.)
I asked this question last turn and got no answer: what are we doing with our new spearman? Should we send him off to go meet We Play Civ to the northeast? Or keep him around for barb defense? Please give me your thoughts before I play the turn.
Start of turn Demos. There are very minimal score changes for this turn, two other teams gained 1 pop and we discovered Fishing. We also got a bunch of land points since Mansa's Muse was founded 20t ago. CivFanatics is working a very heavy production configuration right now for some reason. I would laugh so hard if they are trying to build Stonehenge and we got there a turn or two ahead of them. Probably not though, since they just planted a third city.
Very rough guestimate of how other teams stand with regards to Stonehenge:
* WPC: We have them down as just discovering Mysticism last turn. If accurate, they are not a player.
* Spanish Apolyton: Also have them down as lacking Mysticism. They have two cities of size 3 and size 2. Extremely unlikely.
* Apolyton: We also have them marked as missing Mysticism, but that's more based on a guess. They could have gotten the tech at some point earlier, and they raced to 3 cities fairly early (T44), so their capital could be on a wonder project. They have a modest chance to be trying the wonder. No Bronze Working tech though, if our numbers are right.
* German team: Started with Mysticism, but heavily whipped their capital and second city to race out to 4 cities. Unless they did some extremely creative whip overflow management (which I highly doubt), they don't seem a likely candidate. Also, why would you take Inca if you wanted Stonehenge?
* CivFr: They also started with Mysticism. However, they are Creative and have been whipping their cities heavily for settlers. Just cracked the size 3 mark in their capital for the first time all game last turn. This also feels very, very unlikely.
* CivPlayers: Maybe. They began with Mysticism, and their capital could have begun Stonehenge after finishing their third settler (T48). However, they have no Bronze Working tech and we're pretty confident about that, so it would be a straight production race, and 120 shields are a lot to grab in 7t. Still, this one is also a possibility.
* CivFanatics: Would be a candidate, except that their capital only just finished a settler (third city T51). That doesn't leave them enough time without extensive chopping, which of course is possible with Fast Workers. Also a possibility, although I would rate a smaller one. The timing of their settler builds makes it less likely.
* UniversCiv: Not very likely since they raced out to four cities. Their capital has never grown past size 2! They also do not have Bronze Working, and have demonstrated terrible worker management (they had 1 worker for 3 cities at one point). I don't see it.
After going through all of them... we're looking pretty solid. There's been a real comedy of mismanagement by these other teams, which is the only reason Stonehenge is still sitting there 54 turns into the game. I think we've got 90% or higher odds at this point. Just have to wait until next turn to find out.
We discovered Fishing tech, on now to the equally cheap Priesthood with lots of research overflow. Here's the big news: Stonehenge is still unbuilt by any other teams. We have it due to complete next turn. Let's cross our fingers that we're the ones who cross the finish line first. At the very least, we're a coin flip now (I think? Or if it's the one who has the most production overflow, we probably lose, since we've timed the wonder to have only 1 production overflow. Hopefully won't be an issue.)
I asked this question last turn and got no answer: what are we doing with our new spearman? Should we send him off to go meet We Play Civ to the northeast? Or keep him around for barb defense? Please give me your thoughts before I play the turn.
Start of turn Demos. There are very minimal score changes for this turn, two other teams gained 1 pop and we discovered Fishing. We also got a bunch of land points since Mansa's Muse was founded 20t ago. CivFanatics is working a very heavy production configuration right now for some reason. I would laugh so hard if they are trying to build Stonehenge and we got there a turn or two ahead of them. Probably not though, since they just planted a third city.
Very rough guestimate of how other teams stand with regards to Stonehenge:
* WPC: We have them down as just discovering Mysticism last turn. If accurate, they are not a player.
* Spanish Apolyton: Also have them down as lacking Mysticism. They have two cities of size 3 and size 2. Extremely unlikely.
* Apolyton: We also have them marked as missing Mysticism, but that's more based on a guess. They could have gotten the tech at some point earlier, and they raced to 3 cities fairly early (T44), so their capital could be on a wonder project. They have a modest chance to be trying the wonder. No Bronze Working tech though, if our numbers are right.
* German team: Started with Mysticism, but heavily whipped their capital and second city to race out to 4 cities. Unless they did some extremely creative whip overflow management (which I highly doubt), they don't seem a likely candidate. Also, why would you take Inca if you wanted Stonehenge?
* CivFr: They also started with Mysticism. However, they are Creative and have been whipping their cities heavily for settlers. Just cracked the size 3 mark in their capital for the first time all game last turn. This also feels very, very unlikely.
* CivPlayers: Maybe. They began with Mysticism, and their capital could have begun Stonehenge after finishing their third settler (T48). However, they have no Bronze Working tech and we're pretty confident about that, so it would be a straight production race, and 120 shields are a lot to grab in 7t. Still, this one is also a possibility.
* CivFanatics: Would be a candidate, except that their capital only just finished a settler (third city T51). That doesn't leave them enough time without extensive chopping, which of course is possible with Fast Workers. Also a possibility, although I would rate a smaller one. The timing of their settler builds makes it less likely.
* UniversCiv: Not very likely since they raced out to four cities. Their capital has never grown past size 2! They also do not have Bronze Working, and have demonstrated terrible worker management (they had 1 worker for 3 cities at one point). I don't see it.
After going through all of them... we're looking pretty solid. There's been a real comedy of mismanagement by these other teams, which is the only reason Stonehenge is still sitting there 54 turns into the game. I think we've got 90% or higher odds at this point. Just have to wait until next turn to find out.