October 24th, 2012, 09:54
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@Sullla: I agree with you that we have a good chance to execute our Oracle-Currency plan. However the question is, if we see someone getting Meditation, say next turn, should we consider alternate plans for the oracle if the situation warrants it? I think that at this point if we want the Oracle for MC we can have it. This is probably too hypothetical to require too much discussion, but we might as well consider it.
Kalin
October 24th, 2012, 10:03
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This partly falls in under diplomacy as well, but I don't think we should go for a wonder just because we can get it, or for general denial value.
We took Stonehenge because no-one else bothered and we could make good immediate use of the free Obelisks.
With Oracle->MC we won't build any forges for a long time, so building it would be solely for denial value. Better chop those forests into something that's of real use instead.
Furthermore, I consider that forum views should be fluid in width
October 24th, 2012, 10:07
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(October 24th, 2012, 10:03)kjn Wrote: This partly falls in under diplomacy as well, but I don't think we should go for a wonder just because we can get it, or for general denial value.
We took Stonehenge because no-one else bothered and we could make good immediate use of the free Obelisks.
With Oracle->MC we won't build any forges for a long time, so building it would be solely for denial value. Better chop those forests into something that's of real use instead.
This.
Completed: SG2-Wonders or Else!; SG3-Monarch Can't Hold Me; WW3-Surviving Wolf; PBEM3-Replacement for Timmy of Khmer; PBEM11-Screwed Up Huayna Capac of Zulu; PBEM19-GES, Roland & Friends (Mansa of Egypt); SG4-Immortality Scares Me
October 24th, 2012, 12:34
(This post was last modified: October 24th, 2012, 12:35 by Fintourist.)
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How long would it take after Meditation to tech Priesthood and chop Oracle. If we have a consensus that MC is not worth oracling, then this is more of a topic about when can we start to feel safe that we get the wonder.
Priesthood is worth 60 base beakers, (108 with current setting according to spreadsheet). This must be min. a 2 turn and more likely a 3 turn tech?
150 hammers is much, especially while nobody else will have mathematics in time and there aren't thousands of workers running around. 30+ overflow as we did with Stonehenge, 5 chops and 10+ production. I really doubt that anyone can do this in 1 turn, but I guess it is not impossible.
So if we hear nothing about Buddhism before t64 we can almost start the celebration?
October 24th, 2012, 17:06
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If no other team has picked up Buddhism by t64, I'm going to be greatly disappointed in them.
We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing. - George Bernard Shaw
October 24th, 2012, 17:21
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(October 24th, 2012, 12:34)Fintourist Wrote: Priesthood is worth 60 base beakers, (108 with current setting according to spreadsheet). This must be min. a 2 turn and more likely a 3 turn tech?
That is a big underestimate of how long teching PH should take other teams. First, if they have any gold left after finishing meditiation, a tech that gives a first-to-tech bonus, they are crazy. So assume no gold stores. Second, we have a very strong economy, and we are getting barely enough to tech PH in 3 turns starting from nothing. Even the best-teching other team should take 4 turns to get PH.
As for building time: if they are totally on the ball, they can reasonably get 80h from chops and 30 from whip overflow. I think anything faster than a 4t build is extremely unrealistic. So even facing a very capable and single-minded team I think we have 8 turns from the founding of buddhism to finish the oracle. Realistically, I wouldn't expect a team to mess around in mediocrity for the first fifty turns and then suddenly become novice.
The case I'm a bit more cautious of is someone who went for hinduism (and barely lost to us) sneaking up on the oracle. Especially because they would know that we don't know they're coming. I guess it would be good to keep a close eye on tech discoveries that could have been polytheism, starting the turn we got it ourselves.
October 24th, 2012, 17:23
(This post was last modified: October 24th, 2012, 17:25 by NobleHelium.)
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Yes, the latter case is why I want us to check GNP on Priesthood before we finish it, just in case CFC has researched it already (very unlikely but theoretically possible since we deviated to Fishing). Nobody who can log in has done that (or mentioned doing it) though.
October 24th, 2012, 17:51
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(October 24th, 2012, 17:21)SevenSpirits Wrote: That is a big underestimate of how long teching PH should take other teams.
I think we have 8 turns from the founding of buddhism to finish the oracle.
These were the things that I was hoping to hear after my guesses
And of course there is a possibility that someone takes the same route as we do and manages to steal the oracle from us. But since we do not plan to deviate from our plans even if we would notice this I'll just keep my fingers crossed. For the next couple of weeks..
October 24th, 2012, 21:15
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(October 24th, 2012, 04:27)Ruff_Hi Wrote: - I can think of no way to hide our point lead - lets go for it
This kind of thinking seems too defeatist to me. There is a way to not broadcast an overwhelming GNP lead while maintaining a lead: military and scouting. Think about it: because of the early warrior loss we might be last in the world in scouting and map awareness, or near it.
I fear we might be overlooking macro for the REX micro. A lot of good things happen when we have more units scouting and near enemy cities, and sooner. Right now, do we even know we aren't getting screwed over by CFC in their settlement deal? What about future settlement deals? What about logistics of knowing where enemy cities are very early? Did you see what Krill was able to do in PB5 because he had more military than anyone else at a crucial early point in the game? What if horse is right at one of nearer tiles and another team is soon to pink do it when we could have grabbed it easily just knowing it was there? Etc.
October 24th, 2012, 21:22
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Maybe I should have said 'our score lead' instead of our point lead.
Actually - I did think of a way but I don't think my team mates would go for it.
I have finally decided to put down some cash and register a website. It is www.ruffhi.com. Now I remain free to move the hosting options without having to change the name of the site.
(October 22nd, 2014, 10:52)Caledorn Wrote: And ruff is officially banned from playing in my games as a reward for ruining my big surprise by posting silly and correct theories in the PB18 tech thread.
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