Micromanagement Sims/Planning

[SevenSpirits]

OK, just got something I'm pretty happy with. I'll try to type it up.

Key moves for next turns:
1) WHIP WORKER in MM THIS turn.
2) Next turn, workers E (born in MM) and A (coming east from HF) will move onto the plains hill they can both reach, 2W of MM. They will mine it before splitting off to their respective forests.

[NobleHelium]

Let's just avoid making any worker moves after the turn rolls until we're more thoroughly happy with a sim.

[novice]

Hehe, I also just got something I'm happy with.



AO has a lot more food and has 10 foodhammers into a settler, which can be whipped t68. Mathematics finishes with no beakers to spare. Run 10% science on t61 and 100% science for the rest of the run.

Save stack:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/15215428/ISDG1/...7-mine.zip

[SevenSpirits]

Very nice.

Here's what my end result looked like.


AO is way behind yours. I definitely mismanaged it assuming we want to whip another settler there next from 7-4. I haven't fully taken advantage of being able to work the deer more in this writeup.

I didn't sacrifice any turns of working the copper. Did you lose more than just the one that's visible in your screenshot? Looks like no, so that's sweet.

I am 3g behind you. Though, I will note I worked the nonriver cottage over the lake once, which is perhaps gratuitous.

We chose different worker plans for clam city. (I went for a farm.) Farm grows 2t faster, but cottage-first works 5 more cottage-turns, while farm-first works 10 more farm-turns, in the first 12 turns. I'm still not sure which one I like better. We might not have enough happy yet to make the extra food worthwhile. This isn't interdependent on other choices; we should decide it separately.

Details for my plan are typed up by the old plan, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...Ww5b2dOVHc, but in a new sheet.

[SevenSpirits]

Oracle risk assessment:

civplayers got a tech we is probably priesthood at eot58. So they could start building oracle t59.

With less than 15hpt, they would get it after us (t69 or later).
If they average 15hpt, they can get it in 10t: eot68
If they average just under 17hpt, they can get it eot67. This is easily achievable via 15h overflow from a worker, plus the simple-enough 15hpt, obviously.
If they average just under 19hpt, they can get it eot66. I think they'd have to have quite a different city to build it in than we are supposing, to achieve this.

I rate the chances of them aiming for various turns thus:
t69+: 8% (including the case where they have actually teched fishing, not priesthood)
t68: 36%
t67: 50%
t66-: 6%

Against this setup, our payout table with the t68 oracle plan looks like:
26%: get oracle
74%: don't get oracle, no real cost though (chops are all 30h)

And with the t67 plan it looks like:
69%: get oracle
25%: don't get it on tiebreak; lose 30h compared to waiting a turn with chops. +30 or so failgold compared to t68 plan.
6%: don't get it; save chops a turn to get math bonus. +30 or so failgold compared to t68 plan.
ALL cases: approximately -1 pop and -20 commerce compared to t68 plan

So the difference is approximately equivalent to paying 1 population to get a 43% additional chance of landing oracle. Well, it's a bit worse, but hopefully it's obvious why this is a good idea.

[novice]

Here's a writeup of my version:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...2tsbTBIeGc

There was a small error in the save stack that I've corrected now. (On t64 HF was shown working a grass cottage when it should have been working coast.)

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Any risk to aiming for Math on the exact number of beakers? If something changed maintenance wise, could we speed Math back up?

[novice]

Any risk to aiming for Math on the exact number of beakers? If something changed maintenance wise, could we speed Math back up?

I think we'll be fine. We can work other tiles if necessary on t67 to make up a few beakers, and we can adjust earlier on by e.g. delaying the worker whip in HF. The micro plan lists expected number of beakers and expected treasury for each turn, so we'll know immediately if something's off.

[T-hawk]

Just for the sake of completeness, I will note that getting the Oracle a turn sooner also means an extra turn of Currency income (4 commerce), and the 2 Prophet GPP could mean the shrine a turn sooner for another 3-5 or so gold.

[kjn]

Found a minor error in Seven's write-up on T65: both MM and FP are listed as working the plains cottage. I assume one of them (probably MM, since FP is on a settler build) should work the shared riverside grass cottage instead.

I also think that MM should be listed to work corn-gold-plains instead of corn-gold-grass on T67, otherwise I think we'll be 1H short of finishing the Oracle on T67.

I think I prefer Novice's gross plan, but I like Seven's worker management in the south and west better. But I think we should go for a cottage first in KC. It gives us two workers to cottage flood plains and the last one can cottage the shared riverside plains before it saunters northwards.