Intersite Game - Turn Discussion Thread

[Lewwyn]

Let's see, kjn's idea involves waiting a turn to get about +0.6% chance to win the battle. If we lose the axe we have to spend 35h to replace it and let's say 5t to move the new one over there, generously +1 turn because it builds an extra warrior in the meantime. So 0.6% of 6t, that is 0.036 barb city turns. 35h * 0.6%, that's 0.2 hammers. 1h is made up in about 0.25 turns of that city's operation, so 0.2h are worth about 0.05 barb city turns. Total expected value gained by the extra odds is 0.086 turns of operation of the barb city, which is nothing in relation to the 1 lost barb city turn if we, well, delay capturing it by a turn.

So in order for the math to come out in favor of waiting a turn, we have to think there is a 91% chance the barb city will not grow by the time we can capture it at the earliest. We knew the barb city was there t81. Since it is working the 3f tile it should grow 8t after being born. At worst it will have grown t89. At best rate we would be able to conquer it t87. AFAICT the first tracking of barb pop increases in the C&D thread was t80, and none happened t81. Since it's t85, the earliest it could have been born was t78; once the turn rolls and we have to make the decision if the city hasn't grown yet, the earliest will be t79.

So we know (rather, will know next turn, if the city doesn't grow yet) with fairly high probability that the barb city was born either t79 or t80. If we can confirm that it was not born t79, then sure, waiting a turn for +0.6% odds seems good. If we just don't have the info, I think the odds it was born t79 rather than t80 are higher than 10%. So on balance we'll be better off attacking rather than waiting.

Alright chumps lets do this... LEEEEEROOOYY JEENNNNKIIIIIINNSSSS!

[novice]

Very appropriate.

[NobleHelium]

I'm going with Leeroy on this one.

[scooter]

Leeroy it is on the axe attack.



The contact thing depends a little bit on if we want to rush for that stone. If we want it, it's a lot easier to deal with the fallout if we settle it before they've had a chance to tell us they want it.

Personally, I'd like to see us settle it ASAP. The stuff in the direction of WPC/German can wait - those are backwards teams from whom we can take whatever we want. I don't think we can say the same of CivPlayers.

[kalin]

I am not sure if to make contact or not with the Aztecs. However, I would say that we don't need to mention or justify anything, like settling the stone site. If they complain we have arguments as to why we did it, but as MH said, I would not mention anything. Also, their power is not that great (given we are 2nd in power) so I don't think we have that much to fear from them. That is not to say we should be cautious and reinforce BbB (Brick-by-Brick), but no need to overreact. MH makes a good point about our axe being in a rather menacing position for them.

If we make contact I would suggest negotiating boldly and trying to have that river as a border. I would wait however to explore more before committing to any line of negotiation.

For Alemanni, I am in favor of maximum caution. One thing to keep in mind is that if we only leave a single warrior in there and our axe is too injured there is a small risk of someone else being able to take it. I don't think there's any rush to take that city. How long would it take say to fully heal the axe?

Kalin

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Since we have so many unknown variables here, and the downside of Dantski being defeated is quite large (need a new axe, need to walk an axe to the barb city et c), I think it makes sense to minimise risk.

Yes, but we are talking about increasing our odds to the tune of eliminating one loss per ~170 attacks. That seems pretty minimal to me.

[novice]

For Alemanni, I am in favor of maximum caution. One thing to keep in mind is that if we only leave a single warrior in there and our axe is too injured there is a small risk of someone else being able to take it. I don't think there's any rush to take that city.

Just as much rush to take the city as there would be to settle a new city. Anyway by not promoting before killing the second warrior, we ensure a double promotion before killing the final warrior.

[Sullla]

Sorting through the many responses in the thread:

85: E and F road in place. G moves S-SE-NE (239) onto the banana.
86: MM whips worker Z, works gold, three plains cottages, deer for 0 net food. Grass cottage goes to FP. E and F move S-SE (23) and road. G roads the banana.
87: MM overflows into another worker, working the same tiles. Z moves SE and puts another turn into the cottage. E and F move NW-N (78) and plantation the spice. G finishes its road.
88: Z moves NE-NE-N (998) and helps finish the spice plantation with E and F. G starts chopping the banana. MM finishes the second worker, same tiles.
89: G continues chopping the banana. E, F, Z move S-SE-NE (239) onto the banana. E and F finish the jungle chop. Z starts the plantation. New MM worker does something TBD.
90: E, F, G, Z all finish the banana plantation.

* I moved the workers in the Forbidden Fruit plan as outlined above. We'll be using this for the next half dozen turns unless something else pops up. Getting two more workers out of Mansa's Muse is a godsend, as we desperately need the worker labor. I've also ended our turn.

* We still seem to have no consensus whatsoever on whether to make contact with CivPlayers next turn. There are arguments all over the place on this particular issue. I would suggest trying to arrive at more of a group decision on such an important topic while we're waiting on the next turn to arrive.

* After much debate, the team opinion seems to be that we should attack with our eastern axeman against the barb city WITHOUT promoting to City Raider. We have 96.6% odds to win this battle. I do not believe that we should sit and heal for a turn first, since it sounds like we would only gain one half of one percent odds from resting (0.5% or 0.005) Not worth it. If we win this battle, we can double promote and easily win the battle against the third and final barb warrior. I think we simply have to roll the dice and rely on our 29/30 chance odds to win.

* I heard absolutely nothing on healing our Woodsman axe in the north in place versus moving back into our territory to heal. If you don't want me to make my own decision, now is your chance to weigh in.

* One last thing. There's been a couple of "why didn't you do X?" questions in recent turns, and people asking "why didn't you follow my post on moving unit Y?" The thing is that all of you guys post a lot of stuff in this forum. On a busy turn, we can have well over 100 posts from close to two dozen different people. These posts pop up in ten different threads with no clear plan, they appear in no order whatsoever on many different subjects, and often suggest completely contradictory advice. The dotmap thread in particular is a nightmare, with people referring to all sorts of different colored dots (usually with few or no accompanying images to supply context) and frequently reversing east and west directions, making it almost impossible to figure out what in the world they are even suggesting.

My point from all this is that I'm only human and I will miss things sometimes. I do my best, but this game isn't a full time job for me. Alternately, we get a lot of mutually contradictory suggestions, and in those cases someone is always going to be unhappy. I will continue to try and pull our collection of somewhat random posts into a coherent team vision. It's not as easy as it looks - go check out the RB Demogame forums to see how easy it is for "team forums" to collapse into a trainwreck of one or two people doing everything on their own.

And despite everything, we seem to be doing pretty well in this game right now.

[kjn]

Just as one could expect: the players calling for blood for the blood god, skulls for the throne of Sullla!

[kalin]

I said it before, but here's again: thanks Sullla for the excellent reports and all the rest.

Kalin