WW20: Legend of the Undercity

[novice]

I read through Gaspar's posts. First impression is that he didn't do much distancing, based on what he wrote and combining it with my own reads. Maybe he felt he could get away with focussing on town tells on the unlynchables and setups on the mislynchables. This is sort of predicated on him not feeling under heavy pressure. I don't think he felt in danger of getting lynched, at least.

Anyway, I'd take a closer look on the players he ignored. Tomorrow. Night, everyone.

[pindicator]

Gaspar's Death-
I had notes written out where I was going to say I didn't like Gaspar's last post of the night, but someone beat me to the punch.  Good job, whomever was responsible for that.  I like to think that the village is now 3 for it's last 3 in vig shots over the last 2 games

But it is also possible we have an SK who shot Gaspar, and that may in fact may make more sense.  I would think a vig would have shot someone like Molach or Ichabod to get more of a read on day 1.  Gaspar had no heat on him; vig shotting him doesn't seem very town oriented or done with the purpose of helping the town unravel day 1.  (Yes, I'm saying my vig shot on Bigger last game was bad.  It was, especially my reasoning.)

Gaspar's Flip-
I think Gaspar's last post of the night combined with him flipping scum is pretty good evidence that Ichabod is village.  Well, combined with Ichabod's posts, which is pretty good evidence because of the effort being shown.  But I also think it's a sign that Ichabod is on the wrong targets.  Well, I know he's wrong on at least one of his targets  But Gaspar is giving Ichabod praise in his last post without specifying what Ichabod is doing well, buddying up while leaving Gaspar an out if Ichabod mislynches someone down the line.

Ichabod & Bigger appear to be two villagers butting heads to me.

Ichabod seeming village means we likely had 2 villagers on the block yesterday.  So I think we'll find some people who weren't pushing all too hard.  People voicing opinions but not trying to win over others to their cause.  That can be defending as well as attacking.  Or people who were just lurking.

I did consider Brick for this because he was doing the "I told you so" bit once flug flipped, but Brick was also asking Molach for help in clearing flug with less than an hour to go in the day.  So I'm less inclined to think Brick is scum.

Still want to hear from Lewwyn.  I don't think we should let him wait until day 3; last game he was on scum as of day 1.

Also, I like Molach's posts at the end of the night/ beginning of the day.  Which means I'm not a fan of Meiz's targets.  I have a hard time thinking Meiz & Gaspar as a scum pair both would agree with Ichabod after his posting, but maybe I am wrong.  I know other people were mentioning them as a scum pair and that was before Gaspar flipped.


Battery Power: 90%

[Lewwyn]

Morning Ladies and Germs. In the city of rapture we sleep during the night, and avoid night labor.

I'm not sure what to think yet. I'm very happy a wolf died because that eliminates another person in my way to enlightenment. I spent this morning catching up on all the night posts.

Ichabod - I could go either way. I think he's actually done a very good job defending and I'm not getting huge scum vibes from him. I think a lot of people have glummed onto a post I made about Ichabod's post and used it as the key. Now I didn't like Ichabod's post then, and I don't like it now, but I don't think its enough to convict Ichabod of being scum. I can see him being either a villager or a wolf. I'm inclined to go in another direction today.

Serdoa - Pushing hard at Ichabod. Could be village, but could be scum. Don't tell me you guys forget when he aggressively pushed Mattimeo to the lynch in that game where I vigged the village to death? He pushed very hard much like every game. Serdao doesn't get village points for pushing Ichabod so hard this game. Not saying he's scum, but am saying he shouldn't be given townie status. Requires more investigation.

Ryan - I think is innocent. Town vibe, town lean.

Pindicator - I think made some good cases and made some good reads on day 1. I also think his observation of Gazglum was a good one. I think Gazglum bears a rereading investigation.

Bigger - is as annoying as Navi always was. Crazy how good that's working... Enough to distract from possible scum? Yeah I'm going to reread while blocking out the hey's and listen's.


I'm going to go back and use the scrapper for a bit before I vote.

[Lewwyn]

... Serdoa is difficult to read here. I think I'm willing to go more village than scum here. One reason is he's much more vocal Day 1 than he needs to be if he is scum. The game with his Matt push where he was scum was on Day 2. He spent Day 1 keeping a low profile. I think him being more aggressive day 1 is a village tell. In fact one reason I was suspicious of him was his use of my objection to Ichabod as the basis of his case, but looking back these arguments prefaced that bit:

All those people voting for Meiz... It's a bit funny. Like if Meiz was going to get lynched on day 1. Yeah, right, deadline hour would get close by and people would let Meiz get lynched. Highly doubt it... This is just a way to condemn the poor sod who is near him in the lynch tally. i'm guessing flug_auto or GaiusMarius.

Still, Meiz lynch could give some nice information. I'm positive there's a baddie in his votes, because high profile baddies always like to start the days with "good" cases and Meiz's case is the "goodest" around. Someone should look at the Meiz voters and try to find the baddie. Problem is, if Meiz is indeed one of them, then everything blows up.

In gist you state "At least one Meiz voter is a wolf - though maybe he is the wolf in which case that would probably not be so." Thanks, that was extremely helpful. So many words for no content at all.

Here's a question for everyone around. I think if Meiz is nice and Rowain is a baddie, Rowain would get pretty angry at the GM for giving villagers such an easy way to clear themselves. So someone should look at Rowain's vote against Meiz and analyse if it's an "angry-at-GM" revenge vote or just an "I-suspect-you" vote. I'd do it, but I'm a poor judge of character. I always judge all characters poor...

Translation "I really don't want to start the train on Rowain, could someone else please do so?"...

So Serdoa was looking at Ichabod for more than just my objection. I think this is a pretty strong village tell. I think it also that Ichabod's Meiz post there is pretty Wolfabod. Mark a negative next to Ichabod. I still am going to read more before I vote.

[BRickAstley]

Ichabod - I could go either way. I think he's actually done a very good job defending and I'm not getting huge scum vibes from him. I think a lot of people have glummed onto a post I made about Ichabod's post and used it as the key. Now I didn't like Ichabod's post then, and I don't like it now, but I don't think its enough to convict Ichabod of being scum. I can see him being either a villager or a wolf. I'm inclined to go in another direction today.

He's maybe scum, or maybe village. Also, I'm not aware of anyone (not myself definitely) using your post as a key for an Ichabod attack.

Serdoa - Pushing hard at Ichabod. Could be village, but could be scum. Don't tell me you guys forget when he aggressively pushed Mattimeo to the lynch in that game where I vigged the village to death? He pushed very hard much like every game. Serdao doesn't get village points for pushing Ichabod so hard this game. Not saying he's scum, but am saying he shouldn't be given townie status. Requires more investigation.

He's maybe scum, or maybe village. Though it is good to say to not trust anyone I guess?

Ryan - I think is innocent. Town vibe, town lean.

Uh.... has anybody been talking about Ryan? Like at all?

Pindicator - I think made some good cases and made some good reads on day 1. I also think his observation of Gazglum was a good one. I think Gazglum bears a rereading investigation.

Bigger - is as annoying as Navi always was. Crazy how good that's working... Enough to distract from possible scum? Yeah I'm going to reread while blocking out the hey's and listen's.

These are better, at least you're not claiming both sides here. I;m in agreement with pindicator/gazglum, and bigger is annoying and talks too much.

I guess I see this, and it looks like a "I'm going to get short blurbs out with my opinion to make myself look like I'm participating, even though I'm not saying anything." If you're going to do some more analysis, please do, or else you might get a seat on the first car in the lynch train today.

I'm not sure what to think yet. I'm very happy a wolf died because that eliminates another person in my way to enlightenment. I spent this morning catching up on all the night posts.

Oh. I. Feel. so. Bad. About. Zak. Dying. But. At. Least. A. Scum. Is. Dead.

[Lewwyn]

I think the late train on Brick is suspicious. I believe the first vote was Q, but the one who made it a "train" and set it up as an alternative to the top two was Molach. Does this make Molach suspicious? Or was he legitimately trying to save flug who he thought was innocent?

Need to read Molach's posts more. Though I do think he's been fairly active. One of the things about Molach being a neighbor wolf is that he knows flug is innocent, therefore he could try to save him and get townie points. But don't try too hard. flug actually has to be lynched in order to get those townie points. But, if he really wanted to save flug, why not vote Ichabod?

Also go back and look at the posts flug makes in the neighborhood QT, as per Molach. They are suspicious IMO but Molach takes them to heart and believes them when everyone else says he's wolfish. Then he says he believes that flug is trying to save Ichabod. Does this mean that Molach is going to try to save Ichabod too? To respect the wishes of flug whose alignment he supposedly doesn't know?

[Lewwyn]

I'm not sure what to think yet. I'm very happy a wolf died because that eliminates another person in my way to enlightenment. I spent this morning catching up on all the night posts.

Oh. I. Feel. so. Bad. About. Zak. Dying. But. At. Least. A. Scum. Is. Dead.

I'm actually really happy Zak was killed. It helps me because I always view Zak with a bit a suspicion and he's distracting for me. :shrug:

[Lewwyn]

This is the only time that Gaspar intereacts or even mentions Gazglum's name in any of his posts:

From what I've read, it seems that Zakalwe, Gaspar, and probably novice are pretty good players. So, barring real evidence, it seems a bad play to try and lynch one of them on Day 1 based off hunches and joke votes. If we kill them and they flip village, that's going to make the rest of the game that bit harder. Let's wait until we have something more concrete to work with there.

Zakalwe and novice are both much better than me and while I'd like to not die, I wouldn't put myself in that same category. I'm medio. And I don't want to indicate we shouldn't watch them too - I thought zakalwe revealed himself as scum last game ~day 3 and it had nothing to do with him still being alive - it was the accumulated lack of incisiveness to his play and a bit of anger that is atypical of zak the villager. So watch closely, certainly. But yeah, they've earned enough rope to hang themselves rather than die on day 1/2 without a bit more smoking a pistola than just not liking a post here or there.

Looks like a wolf talking to a newbie wolf before breaking all contact to me. But it might be a bit thin yet. I need to read up more on Gazglum, but another thing that struck me:

Yep, Gazglum is a wolf. Just lynch him tomorrow, please.

This is pretty heavy distancing. The reason Ichabod puts this here is that Gaz votes for Ichabod whe its clear flug is in the lead already and Ichabod can switch to flug if necessary. Its a great safe vote for anyone, but it works double if Gaz and Ichabod are both wolves.

Still need to read more about Gaz.

[Lewwyn]

So to review so far:

Ichabod I'm still in the middle on but leaning scum now.

Molach as Ichabod's partner, leaning scum. Molach as scum without connection to Ichabod, still a bit scummy.

Gazglum as Gaspar's partner a bit scummy + the flug bit + the late Ichabod vote, no matter Ichabod's alignment.


I think these are my current top 3. But I have barely gone through all of Molach's and Gazglum's posts yet. Next I'm going to finish reading these two and then move onto Jkaen who I saw had an interesting interaction with Serdoa.

Serdoa I now read more village after rereading his posts.



-And yes Brick my first post today was vague and listy... on purpose. It was just a guideline for myself of what I needed to read and investigate today, and something to get down to let you know I was doing so.

[Gazglum]

The Wolf Case

Ok, so Ichabod has announced that he will spend his Day 2 building a devastating case against me. I think Ichabod is crooked, and he’s pedalling hard to remove the suspicion that built up on Day 1, but we’ll get to that. As far as I can tell, his case against me rests on 2 points,

- My post about being suspicious of Flug, but voting GaiusMarius
- My vote for him at the end

The first point has some justice I guess, as the post apparently raised alarm bells for several people. I’ll quickly go through my thought process,

- I’m new to the game, and I didn’t want to lurk and be reactive again, it got me mislynched in AITP, and is less fun. So I wanted to do my own detective work and be useful for the team. I still do.
- I don’t know you guys yet, so I can’t really participate in the ‘X isn’t acting normal’ conversations. What I could do was look at the Flug train, and I reasoned that wolves would be on board. I still think that is the case.
- I thought Flug might or might not be a wolf, but I didn’t like it how discussion was shutting down with everyone piling onto him. So I wanted to put some pressure on someone else. That was what my Gaius vote was, a pressure vote. It didn’t really work, because Gaius then went AWOL for 24 hours and nobody else questioned him.
- Why did I pick Gaius over someone else? Meiz is kind of right, it was partly a hunch, and I did say it was a shot in the dark. I then did reason it out more clearly in my own head when I did my big post, and I still liked my vote. I thought Gaius seemed (slightly) more suspicious.
- Yes, maybe I passed over Azza a bit too freely. The reason I didn’t consider him was that he had just voted me, and I didn’t want my Big Scumhunt Post (which I was so proud of ☹) to seem like a long revenge vote. Maybe I should have said that upfront, but it didn’t change the fact that I still liked Gaius better as a wolf.

We all could see that Flug_auto was acting suspiciously, but most of the village still spent most of Day 1 voting other people. Why should I be picked out as being scummy for doing the same? I wanted to explore other options in case Flug turned out to be a red herring, which he was.

Second point -

Ichabod, my vote for you, which apparently was the nail in my coffin or something – you’re suffering from a perception bias here. My vote wasn’t about you, it was about Flug. I wasn’t sure if you were a wolf or not, I had suspicions but not enough to hang you. But it was down to the pair of you and I WAS sure at the end that Flug was innocent.

I said right through the day that Flug was suspicious, but not necessarily a wolf. I thought he could easily be a floundering villager, and I became more sure of that at the end. I said that I would vote Flug if he didn’t post again, and I would have.

If Flug hadn’t posted again – I would have considered him a wolf. If he had tried to smear you at the end, as the obvious alternative, I would have voted for him again. But he did a suicide vote, and he did it at a point where the voting was close and could easily have gone the other way. I just couldn’t work out a scenario where a Wolf Flug would do that. Even if he didn’t want to write much, surely his wolf buddies would have given him something to copy-paste. All he needed to do was deny the charge, and you probably would have hung. Hell, even if he’d just flipped to you at the end you might have hung in the draw. His self vote convinced me that he was villager, that he wasn’t having that much fun with the game, and he wanted out. I could sympathise, because I felt a bit like that First Day of Assassin in the Palace.

So there were only minutes left on the clock, I hesitated, then I voted you because I thought you might be a wolf, but I was now sure Flug was not. And since I was –right-, I don’t think this helps your case that much. A whole bunch of others have also said that they thought Flug was village at the end (soryr, no time to find quotes), so I was hardly alone there. Even your own ‘master’ voted for you!

In fact, it was your response AFTER my vote that makes me now think you are a wolf. You’re doing exactly what you did in Assassin. You played it cool, shrugging off attacks against you until the heat built and you realised you might be in danger of being lynched this day or the next. Then, both times, after –I- voted for you you suddenly come out with this big attack against me,. Last time you made me doubt myself and I was lynched, but I’m not letting you pull the same stunt twice.

I think you’re crooked. I think you wanted to point the finger at someone else as soon as Day 1 ended so that the Night conversation would be about them, rather than yourself. I think the fact that Gaspar’s last words before flipping scum were praising your innocence is, at best, not a great sign for you.

Other people have said they are happy to let your case lie another day, but if you keep coming at me then I will draw swords and meet you on deck.

ICHABOD

TL:DR - ICHABOD