WW20: Legend of the Undercity

[Ryan]

I don't mind revealing but I request that I am the first to reveal. I think I can influence a lot of stuff by revealing.

[Ryan]

And I can't protect my self if I am not the first.

[Ryan]

And I can't protect my self if I am not the first.

If everyone will reveal , I will reveal first.

[Qgqqqqq]

Shouldn't you reveal last if you could influence things?

@Lewwyn I don't quite see what your case on me is - you just say that I've been cheerleading, then add some meta which you say should be ignored. Do you have anything on e?

@serdoa apart from the footnote, did you respond to my points on Ryan? If so I couldn't find it.

I'm liking the case forming around meiz atm.

[Ryan]

Trust me it is important to reveal first.

[pindicator]

I've been re-reading day 1 trying to see how that fits with what we know now.

First thought is that molach can't be scum. The two targets that Gaspar are setting up for day 2 are molach and bigger. Now, i thought maybe gaspar could be putting his vote in a fellow wolf like tasunke was, because he gives this reasoning for voting molach:

Nothing random at all. I think flug is trying to save Molach.

Now, i did consider that this could be Gaspar trying to lessen suspicion on molach for when flug flips. Because once flug flips town it will be obvious that this theory gets thrown out. But there's no follow-up by gaspar about this theory, and as other people were pushing molach as the day 2 candidate gaspar said nothing about the topic. I think he was happy to have molach set up as a future suspect and didn't see a need to further dirty his hands.

So that means someone i have as town is not what i thought they were.

Those names were lewwyn, serdoa, azza, and ryan.

Lewwyn and Serdoa are my biggest town leans, Lewwyn by the posts he has made and Serdoa b/c i can't see him getting as emotional as he did as a wolf or SK.

Ryan seems town from my day 1 reread.

Azza ... my only top town lean is that his game is so different from the last few. And yet, if Azza drew scum wouldn't he have to change? The same game three times in a row would draw a policy lynch at best, and i consider azza a very smart and capable WW player that would recognize this.

On day 1 Azza's target is flug. No other, and he reasons it like so:

Azza's post was bad because he said he would move his vote if not for X, where X was just some random accusation put forth in the meantime. Like I said, I don't think the comparison to thestick is very apt. I said he was a better lynch than Gaspar because I was moving my vote from him.

I voted for flug initially because he no lynch'd. I stayed on flug because his reaction seemed like a panicky scum reaction, trying to look village but not knowing how, similar to thestick's reaction in 18. What part of this is considered jumping on a random accusation?

Then day 2, his targets are Molach (also his questionable reveal of his PR is done here), then Bigger and finally Mattimeo. The first two being the targets that gaspar was setting up day 1. Azza could be continuing along that vein.

Now Azza made a point about Lewwyn not being SK because of:

I believe, looking at the night kills, there's a good argument against Lewwyn being the SK.

If I'm SK Lewwyn, I know that Azza is a prime lynch target. 3 other people stated their desire to lynch me, being Bigger, Q and Molach. Killing these players weakens the voting power against me. Instead, it makes more sense to target a Pindicator, or a Serdoa, weaken the opposition to an Azza lynch. So there's no way, in my mind, Lewwyn would've killed Bigger last night.
On top of that, I don't believe Lewwyn would've killed Ichabod last night. Ichabod was confirmed village, yes, but his scum hunting wasn't particularly threatening, especially not towards Lewwyn. As SK, I'd expect Lewwyn to pick a target who is openly anti-Lewwyn.

Overall, I think this is a very strong argument in favour of Lewwyn's innocence.

But Bigger was also heavily on Azza. So eliminating him fits on this line of thinking. Also, why wasn't Serdoa killed? Serdoa and myself are the two people who have been the biggest Azza supporters.

As Serdoa said last night:
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid341805
I think you're spot on about Qgqqqqq, Serdoa, but you have the wrong scum partner. And that's why you're still alive.

I'm starting to think it's Qgqqqqq and Azza

Meiz also seems a likely SK so i'm happy to to join there as well.


@Ryan
As for revealing, i think Lewwyn and Serdoa should decide the order


I also have a day 1 theory that i'm waiting to disclose until reveals happen

70%

[Meiz]

There's no way Q is scum. Nor is lew, serdoa and ryan.

[Molach]

We've had all villagers on the block every day past. So with no voting records to go on, gotta be either meta or scumminess/town feel from posting.

I'll never believe Serdoa, Lewwyn or Meiz are scum.
Possible scum are Ryan, Qgqqqq, Pindicator and Azza.
Ryan is less likely for me, would due to playing his second game and seeming very open and innocent.

About SK, Lewwyn cleared by role. Serdoa is pretty unlikely too, would have been better to blend more and not be as noticable as scum. If there weren't so many confirmed needing killing I think Serdoa would have been a natural target. Bad SK playto be a target like that. I don't think Meiz is because of daykill, but at see the points of L&S who I pretty much trust at this point. Still think it's better to hit possible scum who could be both.

About claims, regardless of night actions we can lynch right & win, so if it helps making the right lynch rock & roll.

[Azza]

@Pindicator,
Bigger's been attacking me for days. If I'm killing him to get him off my back, wouldn't I have done that nights ago? Not killing someone with a vendetta against me is completely unlike me. Hell, in 17 I tried to kill Jkaen for just considering that I was lynchable.



As far as revealing is concerned, I'd rather not, but I will if required.

[LeChuck]

I'm not sure a mass reveal is in the town's favor. The only reason I revealed yesterday was because the situation required it. So a few questions I have. Do people think it would help? And what is your day 1 theory pindi, does it revolve around your role so you won't share until a full role reveal happens? Also Pindi why are these "names lewwyn, serdoa, azza, and ryan" innocent but now you think one is not? I would really like to know fully.


A bit of a rundown:
I am convinced Meiz is the SK.
I think Serdoa and Ryan are villagers. I know I am one.
This leaves Qg, Azza, Molach and Pindi.


This for me is super interesting because I can see any one of them as scum. Also they're all pretty much voting for each other or suspicious of one another.

Meiz thinks Pindi and possibly Azza is scum
Molach thinks Ryan, Qg, Pindi and Azza are possible scum thinks Meiz is innocent.
Pindi thinks Azza and Qg are scum and Molach isn't.
Qg thinks Ryan and Molach are scum.
Azza thinks Molach.

First a couple of thoughts about people's suspicions.
-Meiz's suspicions are of the "everyone else is town" variety and are not especially strongly worded. But I consider him to be either SK or villager (highly doubt that) so his suspects actually carry more weight in terms of hunting wolves.
-Molach's suspicions are a bit wider here lots of people, but he's made clear indications about who he thinks is innocent, which I think is helpful. His possible scum list is wide however its not dissimilar from my own in terms of who are likely the last scum. And while scum would like to spread suspicions I actually think he's not spreading suspicion more than pointing out who among who's left is most likely to be suspicious.
-Pindi thought Molach and Qg earlier, but did research and has come away convinced Molach can't be scum. I think this is either a villager doing his due dilligence (which I am more inclined to think) or scum being extremely clever by making their scumbuddy suspicious and then "clearing" them.
-Qg's attack on Ryan today felt like an attempt to set Ryan up as a possible mislynch. That's how it felt a bit to me and apparently to Serdoa as well. Part of the reason I say this is because it didn't make as much sense to me why Qg would go into full attack mode like this. Particularly because Molach was always his previous target.
-Azza says Molach and thats it. Early Day 4 he says he suspects Bigger, Molach and Serdoa, during that day he suspects Jaken and then myself. Now he's back to molach. I do think that only having Molach as his suspect is suspicious. Who welse does he suspect? Bigger, Jkaen are both dead, Serdoa and Myself have been mostly cleared or accepted as innocent I feel like Azza has almost run out of people to suspect.


So after reading everyone's suspicious I found that Qg and Azza are on both Molach and Pindi's lists and Azza also on Meiz's. Pindi is only on Meiz and Molach's lists. Azza really only has one person, molach, on his list. Before today Qg had Molach, jkaen and Azza, but now Jkaen is dead and Ryan is the focus, molach has dropped a bit.

So what have I gleaned from this study?
-Qg and Azza become the most suspicious. Azza has a lack of suspicions about people at this point. I think part of this stems from he can't suspect Q who is scumbuddy, he can't suspect pindi who earlier he said he had a very strong village lean on, he can't suspect Ryan because Qg is already pushing the case and if he jumps on too then its too scumbuddies on the same person. I think Qg told Azza in the wolf thread that He would attack Ryan so that Azza could solely attack Molach. This way they split their votes early on and can spread more suspicion around.
-Pindi looks more like a villager due to his suspicion of Molach>reread homework>no longer suspicious. If this is a ruse its a pretty good one.
-Molach is feeling fairly villagery, and he has for me since Day 3 I just haven't said that earlier because I wasn't sure and I wante dto see what happened. His latest thoughts have been concrete and decisive, though open. His belief that Meiz is innocent is actually I point in his favor for me, he concedes that Meiz may still be suspect even though he doesn't suspect him. He's also keeping an open mind on everyone not sufficently cleared in his mind. I agree with this ideal at this point in the game, so another point in his favor.
-Meiz still looks super SK scummy to me.


So my current reads are lining up with pindis: Meiz - SK, Qg and Azza - scum.

Given this I actually think that a full reveal could be useful if it gives me a little more insight into pindi's role and thoughts. Ryan I simply don't understand why you need to reveal first, but then I don't know your role. If you think revealing will help, then go ahead.