[SPOILERS] scooter, pindicator, and Huayna Capac try some fast Zulu cuisine

[pindicator]

Okay, here's a potential ETA for Sid's Sushi generating our next great person:



I'm guessing that we'll get monarchy in 3t instead of 4t, but it honestly won't delay any of the builds if we do take an extra turn there. Metal Casting at turn 150 is based off the last post.

This is the quickest I've been able to generate a great person, although it will be a bit mixed. Odds will be:

Great Merchant: 61%
Great Prophet: 27%
Great Engineer: 12%

GM would bulb Civil Service (we want Paper ASAP for the known tech bonus)
GP would be a shrine
GE would be up for debate. Either bulb Machinery or see if we can snatch a wonder, or possibly even build a national wonder.


Alternatively we can try for our best odds of a Great Prophet and cut out the engineer specs altogether. If we did that I would build the temple a turn earlier. We would get our great person 2 turns later, at eot 158, but it would be with these odds:

Great Merchant: 65%
Great Prophet: 35%

I think that's kind of silly; we should aim for the faster great person. Since it's likely a merchant either way, and civil service is an excellent bulb for us.

[pindicator]

Whenever the next turn is, Sid's Sushi needs to work Fish and grass hill mine next turn.

[scooter]

Well since we're breathlessly waiting Azza to make his presence known and play the turn, it's GAMETIME. Would the lurkers like to take bets on:

1) How many turns until one of us screws up the spreadsheet Pindicator made
2) Which of us will mess it up
3) Which comes first, the answer to #1, or the next time Noble mentions in a post that "omg Commodore might attack us because he is teh evil!!111!!"

All of these things are inevitable, it's just up to you to predict them. The person with the best predictions gets some sort of really lame prize.


AZZA HURRY UP AND PLAY. I'm restless. India should not still exist, and yet they do.

[pindicator]

You forgot
4) How many turns does it take to find where pind messed up in the spreadsheet?

[MindyMcCready]

Well since we're breathlessly waiting Azza to make his presence known and play the turn, it's GAMETIME. Would the lurkers like to take bets on:

1) How many turns until one of us screws up the spreadsheet Pindicator made
2) Which of us will mess it up
3) Which comes first, the answer to #1, or the next time Noble mentions in a post that "omg Commodore might attack us because he is teh evil!!111!!"

All of these things are inevitable, it's just up to you to predict them. The person with the best predictions gets some sort of really lame prize.


AZZA HURRY UP AND PLAY. I'm restless. India should not still exist, and yet they do.

Noble will mention Commodore first of course. But he'll be right again.

[scooter]

You forgot
4) How many turns does it take to find where pind messed up in the spreadsheet?

Glaring mistake on my part.

Noble will mention Commodore first of course. But he'll be right again.

Please no, he'll be INSUFFERABLE if he's right again. This happened last night:

scooter: if he attacks us in the next 30 turns i will eat my big toe
Noble: it's annoying that scooter keeps using "that would be crazy" as an argument
pindicator: someoen put that in thread
Noble: i don't actually think commodore is crazy of course
but he makes decisions that are akin to being crazy
scooter: if you can explain what he would gain by attempting to invade us, i'll stop dismissing it immediately :P
Noble: he would gain the triumph from having finished us off
that's obvious
scooter: SO CONVINCING

(This was in the context of a Khmer galley invasion which will not happen. Or else I'll be down to 4 toes. Once Commodore - or anyone for that matter - has Galleons all bets are off)

[NobleHelium]

Note that at no point did I actually say that Commodore would attack us.

me: commodore is spending lots of EPs on us
pindicator: jerk
me: still saving gold on mc
pindicator: you think he's going to invade with MC?
scooter: he's not
that would be crazy
me: cough
i don't know
forgot to check the power graph before logging out
pindicator: i think it's too late for us if he is deciding
we've already set toward monarchy
and he can out-produce us at even tech
me: yeah it's fine
scooter: if he attacks us in the next 30 turns i will eat my big toe
me: it's annoying that scooter keeps using "that would be crazy" as an argument
pindicator: someoen put that in thread
me: i don't actually think commodore is crazy of course
but he makes decisions that are akin to being crazy
scooter: if you can explain what he would gain by attempting to invade us, i'll stop dismissing it immediately :P
me: he would gain the triumph from having finished us off
that's obvious
scooter: SO CONVINCING
me: it's not convincing
i'm not trying to argue it
but you keep trying to argue that he would never do it, which is likewise not convincing
both of our arguments are based upon our judgment of his character
i don't argue mine because i know you don't agree with my judgment
pindicator: he'd get Great Lighthouse
that's why he'd invade us
and he already has a TON of coastal cities
scooter: logistically its notn possible pre-galleons
me: why is it not possible?
we did it from a far weaker position
scooter: yeah but we still got 8 galleys worth and we fought against one of the most incompetent defenses i've ever seen
pindicator: once we get triremes and get our fleet back west, yeah
pindicator: but there's a 20t window
scooter: there was noooooo way that would have worked against a below-average defender
me: commodore can easily build lots of galleys if he wanted
he just needs a fort next to LJS
scooter: he would need 12+
pindicator: 20-30t window
until we can get somewhat respectable
me: would it be a smart thing to do, no
would we defend better than nakor and jester, obviously
scooter: he's on the inside track to a win. derailing that is illogical
me: scooter
scooter: he was NOT on the inside track to win before he attacked us
me: please stop with the "commodore is logical" argument, we just covered that
scooter: how can you not see that
pindicator: no, noble, just save the conversation
me: he wasn't on the inside track to win, but it also wasn't his best course of action to maximize his winning chances
you said that yourself
scooter: and i know a lot of lurkers who disagreed with me
me: what does that have to do with anything lol
scooter: i don't think his attack on us was illogical at all. its not how i would have played it, but then again, scoreboard
me: i don't really care whether commodore attacks us or not
because we can't do anything to reduce the probability
unlike before
pindicator: yeah, if we get attacked it's probably game
me: but it just annoys me that every time it's brought up you say "he would be crazy to do that" or "there's no way he'd do that"
pindicator: nothing we can do about i
it
me: how things turn out does not mean the decision was the correct one at the time it was made
you give the game ending shot to michael jordan because he's your best chance of winning
but he's missed some of those shots too
does that mean that was the wrong decision, no

[pindicator]

Turn rolled!

[Ceiliazul]

Update! Update Naaough </Schwartzenegger>

[pindicator]

Update! Update Naaough </Schwartzenegger>

We still need to wait for Nakor to play...