Right, I think I've finally got a handle on this and the news is good (for me).
Let's start by setting the scene; here's the area at the end of my t59:
![[Image: attachment.php?attachmentid=1003&stc=1]](http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=1003&stc=1)
You can see my Settler on the right under the "t63" sign - the sign is to show where the second Settler will be at the end of ... t63. From that tile, I can settle either Orange Dot or Purple Dot on t62, and the second on t66. (I could also do Old Purple Dot, but the aim here isn't aggression, it's securing defensive territory.
OK, I know what I can achieve; what can mh do? First thing to note is that I can see the forest tile SE of Vienna, and at the start of the turn I could also see the grassland 1E of Vienna. Knowing that, the nearest a Settler could be is in the city of Vienna itself. Assuming worst case, that means that he could settle New or Old Purple Dot on his t61 (i.e. half-turn before I can), or Orange Dot on his t64.
The good news right off is that if he's going to be able to settle either of the Purple Dot spots on t61, his Settler has to be visible to me at the start of next turn (my t60). So if I don't see a Settler, I know I can beat him to Old and New Purple Dots. The wrinkle is North Purple Dot, which he could settle a turn earlier, or the same turn (his t61) if the Settler is a turn behind.
Also, if I do manage to beat him to the Purple Dot spot, there's still an extra turn window where he can get to Orange before my second Settler can reach.
However, there's another factor to consider: that I have not spotted any of mh's troops this side of Vienna. Now if we assume that he won't send a settler out without an escort, then we need to speculate on the likelihood of him having Horses hooked up....
It's not too long since he claimed not to have seen any Horses, while I know that wasn't true, I do know that there is a source of Horse (heh) 6tiles West of his Capital. I also suspect from border shapes during exploration that Prague was founded 3 W of his Capital (so wouldn't get Horses until 3rd ring), and that there are no Horses at Vienna. Also, while he may have been bending the truth with his assertion that he hasn't seen Horses, it's very unlikely that he would do so if he were likely to turn up with Chariots only a few turns later. All in all, I feel it a safe assumption that he has not got a 2-move escort for his Settler.
If he's relying on 1-movers for escort duty, that makes it virtually impossible for him to compete with me for either Orange or Purple Dot. If the Settler moves along with the escort from Vienna this turn, he could found Old Purple on mh's t62 (too late). He can potentially build Northern Purple on his t61, however he won't see my settler until he's moved that turn, so won't know that he's competing for the spot, and would have to be aiming there.
Anyway, to summarise: I think that I have a great shot at securing both of the city locations I want in the valley. As long as I don't see a Settler from him at the start of my next turn, I'm going to be happy.
